Page 1 of
2 No end to US's war budget
woes By David Isenberg
WASHINGTON - To paraphrase an old US Army
song (The Caissons Go Rolling Along), the
costs of the overall US global "war on terror",
including, but not limited to the Iraq war, just
keep rolling along and piling up. The title "The
Growing Budgetary Costs of the Iraq War" of an
October 24 House Budget Committee hearing
succinctly summed it up.
During a nearly
three-hour hearing a trio of witnesses provided
detailed testimony. Peter Orszag, director of the
Congressional
Budget Office (CBO) testified
that the CBO had totaled the funding provided
through fiscal year 2007 for military and
diplomatic operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and
other activities associated with the "war on
terrorism", as well as for related costs incurred
by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) for
medical care, disability compensation, and
survivors' benefits.
In addition to
totaling the funding provided to date, CBO has
projected the total cost over the next 10 years of
funding operations in support of the "war on
terrorism" under two scenarios specified by the
committee chairman.
Including both funding
provided through 2007 and projected funding under
the two illustrative scenarios, total spending for
US operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other
activities related to the "war on terrorism" will
amount to between US$1.2 trillion and $1.7
trillion for fiscal years 2001 through 2017.
In the first scenario, the number of
personnel deployed on the ground for the ongoing
effort would be reduced from an average of about
200,000 in fiscal year 2008 to 30,000 by the
beginning of fiscal year 2010 and then remain at
that level through 2017. CBO estimates that costs
to the US government under this scenario will
total $570 billion over the 2008-2017 period.
In the second scenario, the number of
personnel deployed to Iraq and other locations
associated with the "war on terrorism" would
decline more gradually, from an average of about
200,000 in fiscal year 2008 to 75,000 by the start
of fiscal year 2013 and then remain at that level
through 2017. The CBO estimates that costs to the
government under this scenario would total $1,055
billion, just over a trillion dollars, over the
2008-2017 period.
Of course, one third or
one half of the above total has already been
spent, according to Orszag. He said that from
September 2001 through the end of fiscal year
2007, Congress appropriated $602 billion for
military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and
other activities associated with the terrorism
campaign. That does not include an estimated $2
billion has been spent by the VA for war-related
benefits.
According to CBO's estimates,
the majority of the $604 billion appropriated to
date - about $533 billion - has been provided to
the Pentagon for US military operations and other
defense activities. Such war-related
appropriations accounted for more than 20% of the
department's budget in 2006 and more than a
quarter of its budget in 2007. The Department of
Defense (DOD) currently is obligating an average
of almost $11 billion a month for expenses
associated with its operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan and for other activities related to
the "war on terrorism".
Most of that
amount (more than $9 billion per month) is related
to operations in Iraq.
As an example of
how hard it is to figure out costs, the next
witness, Amy Belasco of the Congressional Research
Service, had a slightly higher figure than the
CBO. She said that CRS estimated that Congress had
provided about $615 billion to date for Iraq,
Afghanistan and enhanced security at defense
bases.
That figure, does not reflect the
administration's most recent request. On October
22, the administration submitted an additional
request which includes an additional $43.6 billion
for Iraq and Afghanistan. If Congress chooses to
provide those funds, the CRS estimates that total
war costs will reach about $803 billion, including
some $192 billion in FY2008.
To help put
current costs in historical perspective, the CRS
noted that the cost of all DOD funds appropriated
thus far for the three "war on terror" operations
- Iraq, Afghanistan and enhanced security - now
equals about 90% of the 12-year war in Vietnam
($670 billion) and about double the cost of the
Korean war ($295 billion).
Put another
way, the cost of all three operations thus far is
now over six times as large as the cost of the
first Gulf War ($94 billion). Comparisons to that
war are problematic, however, because the United
States only paid some $7 billion, or about 7% of
the cost of that war, because its allies,
principally Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, reimbursed
the United States for most of the cost.
The Iraq war itself has thus far cost
about 65% as much as Vietnam. On the other hand,
Iraq has cost about 50% more than Korea to date
and about four and a half times more than the
costs incurred for the first Gulf War.
Interestingly, according to Belasco, the
current "burn rates" or monthly obligations, such
as the nearly $11 billion a month given by the
CBO, do not reflect overall costs.
The
DOD's war cost reporting system captures the
amounts that have been obligated for Iraq, for
Afghanistan and for enhanced security and hence
shows how funds have been allocated after the fact
or once contracts or purchase orders are signed
and military or civilian personnel are paid.
The DOD's figures do not reflect the total
amounts that Congress has appropriated to date,
which includes funds that remain to be
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
