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2 Turkish decision weighs heavy for
US By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Twenty-four hours before
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan landed
in Washington on Monday, a column appeared in the
Turkish daily Zaman concerning his meeting with
President George W Bush. The columnist, Mustafa
Unal, wrote, "It is crucial to note November 5 as
a turning point for Turkey's fight against PKK
[Kurdistan Workers' Party] terrorism."
He
added, "Turkey has no time to wait to conduct a
cross-border operation ... The sensitivity of PKK
terrorism is very high among
the
Turkish public. If the administration in
Washington leaves Turkey alone in the fight
against terrorism, bilateral relations will be
dealt a heavy blow."
Before that, the
commander-in-chief of the Turkish armed forces
said that any military operation into Iraqi
Kurdistan would wait until after the Bush-Erdogan
summit. That statement was echoed by journalists,
analysts and observers from around the world. It
was believed that if diplomacy failed, then the
100,000 Turkish troops amassed on the Iraqi border
would be given the green light to roll into Iraq,
as mandated by the Turkish Parliament, to root out
PKK terrorism.
Dozens of editorials by
Turkish journalists, along with statements by
Turkish officials, however, stressed that Turkey
will not be waiting for an okay from the White
House if it decides to cross the border into
northern Iraq. The argument went, "We seek
permission from nobody!" This is a matter of
national security, the Turks added, that should be
of high concern for Washington for its own "war on
terror". There was a dangerous presumption in
Turkey, however, that if the US decided to clamp
down on the PKK, right after the Bush-Erdogan
summit, then the terrorist group would
automatically disappear.
The opposite,
however, is correct.
US support can curb
PKK activity, and temporarily end its military
presence in northern Iraq, but it won't make the
PKK "go away". The Kurdish rebels have been in
revolt since the late 1970s. They have launched an
open-ended war against the mighty Turkish army and
inflicted, over a 30-year period, heavy damage and
a death toll of nearly 40,000 Turks.
They
began to lose their power base when their leader,
Abdullah Ocalan, was arrested in 1999 (thanks to
Turkish cooperation with US intelligence) and
suffered heavy blows when Erdogan came to power in
2003. An old theory still stands in
Turkish-Kurdish relations. Radicals (like the PKK)
get frustrated when they are confronted with
moderates like Erdogan. The Turkish leader only
turned to force when PKK terrorism got out of
hand. His initial response was "dialogue".
He allocated large sums for investment in
Kurdish districts where the PKK is popular in
southern Turkey. He provided jobs and
opportunities for young Kurds, to turn their
attention from military activity, and promised
during one of his visits to the Kurdish districts,
"The Kurdish problem is everybody's problem, but
above all, mine."
Suddenly, the
attractiveness of rebellion dwindled within the
Kurdish community in Turkey. It seemed more
logical for these young people to live a stable
life, equal to their Turkish counterparts, and
make money, own a house, buy a car and get
married, than to get carried away to the
mountainous regions of Iraqi Kurdistan where they
would have to live in caves as outlaws combating
the Turkish state.
That's when the PKK
stepped in, to restore credibility to itself. It
pushed Erdogan to the limit - wanting him, almost,
to launch an offensive against northern Iraq. That
would restore credibility to the Kurdish
rebellion. It would give them an excuse to fight
back - since radicals like to be confronted by men
with guns, not economic incentives. It would
enable them to cry foul play in the international
community and accuse the Turks of "genocide".
A best-case scenario for them - probably -
would be if the US joins in the war against the
PKK. That would endear them to the anti-American
public that is mushrooming across the world. Being
targeted by the US would bring about international
sympathy. Usually, legitimacy follows sympathy,
and pretty soon, as one Turkish journalist put it,
"Next thing you know the international media refer
to them [the PKK] as 'militants', 'insurgents' and
finally as 'freedom fighters'."
Iran
adds its voice Meanwhile, in an attempt to
defuse Turkish-Kurdish tensions, Iran has urged
the Iraqi government to postpone a referendum on
whether the city of Kirkuk should join the Kurdish
Regional Government. Many believe that part of the
Turkish-Kurdish problem is Kirkuk. The Turks, in
addition to wanting to rid themselves of the PKK,
are horrified at the possibility of the oil-rich
city going to the Kurds, which would enrich and
empower them - inspiring them into more rebellion
against the Turkish government.
Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki has to date said that
implementing the referendum, called for by the
Iraqi constitution, "is mandatory". Maliki is
allied to Kurdish politicians in Iraq who are
strongly opinionated on the issue of Kirkuk. He
has promised to support them on this one, if they
help keep his coalition cabinet in place. He now
faces a dilemma, however, since in as much as he
needs to please the Kurds, he does not want to say
"no" to the Iranians.
The proposal to
postpone the issue of Kirkuk was made at the
weekend by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr
Mottaki at the international conference on Iraq
held in Istanbul. He proposed a two-year delay on
the referendum, which is supposed to take place
before December 31.
Ali al-Dabbagh, a
spokesman for the Maliki government, said, "We
accept the advice, but we refuse to let anyone
interfere with Iraq's internal affairs." The
government of Iraq has to date made no
preparations whatsoever on this issue, due to its
sensitive nature, except to facilitate the
uprooting of Arab residents of Kirkuk to increase
the city's Kurdish population.
They claim
that these Arabs were illegally brought to Kirkuk
by Saddam Hussein in the 1970s for the opposite
reasons: to increase the Arab population at the
expense of Kurdish residents of Kirkuk. When asked
whether the referendum would take place on time,
Dabbagh said, "I don't expect that. Because of the
security situation in Kirkuk we have not done a
census, which needs to be done before the
referendum."
Najat Hasan of the Kurdistan
Democratic Party said a delay was
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