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2 Turkish decision weighs heavy for
US By Sami Moubayed
acceptable, but only for two
months, adding that anything longer would be a
constitutional violation.
All of these
thoughts must have been running through Erdogan's
head as his plane landed in Washington at 3.30am
on Monday. Before departing, Erdogan had said he
would demand "concrete measures" from Bush. He
added, "Our visit comes at a time when
[Turkish-US] relations are undergoing a serious
test." He wrapped
up,
"We have run out of patience."
The two
leaders talked about various ways to minimize
damage in Iraq if the Turks were to invade Iraqi
Kurdistan. Erdogan repeated a request, originally
made at the Istanbul conference, for the
extradition and arrest of 150 members of the PKK,
based in Iraq and Europe. Most of them are
residents of northern Iraq, while a significant
number are based in France, Belgium, the
Netherlands, Norway, Austria and Russia.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a US ally
and a Kurdish nationalist, who had earlier said
that extraditing the PKK was a "dream" for Turkey,
then came out with a new argument, saying that he
had no information that such a "wanted" list even
existed.
Erdogan added that his country
was disappointed with the slow pace of response
from both the US and Europe. Major European media
outlets have not referred to the PKK as a
"terrorist" organization, although the European
Union brands it as such. France and Belgium
cracked down on PKK activists in 2006 but refused
to hand them over to Turkey.
The Turks
claim that had the US been more firm, then Europe
would have behaved differently on the Kurdish
issue. Among the dangerous PKK commanders who were
arrested - then released - by the Europeans were
Riza Altun, in charge of Europe, and Nedim Seven,
in charge of purse strings and youth affairs.
Many in Europe are still sympathetic to
the Kurds, claiming that they are the only major
ethnic group in the world that still does not have
a national home (presuming that what the
Palestinians have is a state).
At the
Washington summit, Erdogan bluntly said, "We have
decided for an operation, the Turkish armed forces
will determine its methods." He was informing the
US president - rather than consulting him. He then
added, "We are expecting tangible steps from our
strategic ally."
President Abdullah Gul,
meanwhile, on Tuesday said that Turkey had made a
decision on how to proceed against PKK militants
in northern Iraq and had informed the US of this
decision. He did not elaborate, other than to say
the PKK issue "should be handled through soldiers
not through diplomats".
One of the
problems that makes Bush reluctant is Iraq. In
addition to the 70% of supplies channeled to US
troops via Turkey, the Turks are a major component
in the economic revival of Iraq. They are heavily
involved in investment, banking, construction and
commerce with the Iraqis. All that could come to
an end and shake the already dislocated Iraqi
economy.
If the US is left with no option
but to help the Turks against the PKK, diverting
its attention from central Iraq to its Kurdish
north, other militias will get the upper hand in
their war against the United States. This applies
to the Mahdi Army of Shi'ite cleric Muqtada
al-Sadr, former Ba'athists and al-Qaeda. That
makes Bush think twice before saying "yes" to
Erdogan.
On the other hand, Bush, who has
been dying for a "success story" in Iraq to score
him points among the US public, finally found it
in al-Anbar province after the US started funding
Sunni tribes to combat al-Qaeda. Violence has been
reduced in these provinces, enabling Bush to say,
"All is not lost. Victory is still in sight." But
these Sunni tribes are 100% opposed to any
partitioning of Iraq or giving the Kurds their
separate entity.
If Bush continues to
support the Kurds, on Kirkuk and other issues
related to separatism, it might inspire Shi'ites
to demand the same for their districts. That has
already happened with the ambitious Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, who
is calling for an autonomous Shi'ite district in
southern Iraq, similar to the Kurdish one in the
north. This leaves Sunnis in central Iraq - where
there is no oil - and no real republic anymore.
For two years, various US decision-makers,
including Defense Secretary Robert Gates and
former ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad, have
been advising Bush to promote reconciliation
between Shi'ites and Sunnis, claiming that only
that would bring an end to the Sunni insurgency.
That started to materialize with the Anbar
"success story". The Sunnis, even those working
with the Americans, however, would abandon them in
a minute if the Americans gave the Kurds the green
light to take Kirkuk. Anbar province would be set
ablaze again.
The only way forward for the
US is therefore to side with the Turks, as this
serves the US's interests best. If the US were to
side with the Kurds, it would alienate the Sunnis
of Iraq, the pro-unity Shi'ites of Iraq (Muqtada
and the Mahdi Army), the seculars of former
premier Iyad Allawi, the Turks, the Iranians and
the Syrians (who both suffer from a similar PKK
problem).
Whereas, if the US sides with
the Turks, the only ones who would sulk would be
Iraq's Kurds and Maliki. The move would be widely
welcomed by Iraqi Sunnis - and, perhaps, encourage
them to cooperate further with the US in combating
al-Qaeda in Iraq; the case that really matters to
the Bush White House.
If the US decides to
do that, it would have to put its full weight
behind keeping Kirkuk out of Kurdish hands. Then
it would have to come up with a formula to divide
the oil revenue of the city equitably for all in
the country.
It is now up to Bush as to
whether he contains or magnifies the
Turkish-Kurdish problem. But if the Turks do
invade northern Iraq, Erdogan can safely say:
"Don't say we didn't warn you."
Sami
Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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