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2 Muqtada moves to stop a Sunni
'surge' By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - The world is seemingly too busy
these days to mind the day-to-day news coming out
of Iraq - much to the pleasure of Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki. With the spotlight off him, Maliki
gave an interview to the Saudi television channel
al-Arabiyya, in which he asserted that "There is
no civil war in Iraq." He added, "We don't have a
militia problem in Iraq anymore." He wrapped up by
noting that Iran does not have a
decision-making
influence on the Prime
Minister's Office in Baghdad.
Maliki knew
that he was, to put it politely, not telling the
truth. In addition to spreading false public
relations about his administration's effectiveness
in combating terrorism, the Iraqi premier was also
doing something very important. He was reconciling
with the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr. Or at
least, he was trying to find common ground with
his former allies, recently turned enemies.
Muqtada quit the government this year.
This week, Muqtada called for a renewal of
his truce with both American forces and those of
the Iraqi government. It is a gesture of goodwill
towards Maliki. Another six months of peace and
quiet from the Mahdi Army, giving the prime
minister more room to concentrate on other
pressing issues, like the looming war between
Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq.
Meanwhile, along with the Iraqi Accordance
Front, which joined him in walking out on the
prime minister earlier this year, Muqtada is
calling for a dissolution of Parliament and early
elections.
Some claim that this will lead
to a vote of no confidence against the prime
minister and bring down his government. But if
that happens, it might be a blessing for Maliki,
who if re-allied to Muqtada would again win
parliamentary elections and have a chance to
create a cabinet free of all the luggage from his
first tenure. Instead of facing Maliki and the
Iraqi Accordance Front, Muqtada would face the
Iraqi Accordance Front with Maliki.
On the
surface, the truce renewal seems to serve Muqtada
well, as a man working for collective security -
even if it means putting controls on his own
supporters. While the world observes his "truce",
however, many of his men have flooded into the
Iraqi security services, under a plea from none
other than Maliki.
Reportedly, 18,000
militiamen have joined the Iraqi security
apparatus; this is similar to what happened when
Lebanese militiamen were absorbed by the Lebanese
Army after the end of the civil war in 1990. Many
of those now abandoning guerrilla uniforms in
exchange for the military outfits of the Iraqi
army are former members of the Mahdi Army.
What is the reasoning behind such a
strange move? It already has surprised and in some
cases enraged leading Sunni personalities, who
believe that the army is going to become all
Shi'ite. One of the leading politicians to come
out and criticize Maliki on the issue is Vice
President Tarek al-Hashemi.
One reason
could be a last-minute decision by Shi'ite leaders
to get Shi'ite young men into the armed forces -
regardless of their political affiliations - to
prevent these posts from being filled by Sunnis
under pressure from US Defense Secretary Robert
Gates. Gates, operating under the principle of
former US ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad, has
insisted on bringing Sunnis back into senior
government and military posts.
One the one
hand, militias are being absorbed into the army.
On the other hand, 1,500 Iraqis are returning to
Iraq per day (according to the London-based
al-Hayat) from Syria. That too is troubling the
prime minister and Muqtada since most of those
returning in large numbers are Sunnis. This comes
after Syria decided to implement restrictions on
visas to control the 1.5 million-plus Iraqi
community in Syria. If al-Hayat is correct and
this pace continues, in nearly four years all
Iraqis will be out of Syria and back in the civil
war arena in Baghdad.
If peace and
stability are not achieved in their country by
then, the chances are they will join underground
militias, since they pay more than the army or any
other government job. This would be a blow for the
already paranoid Shi'ites, who complain that the
Sunni insurgency launched by former Ba'athists and
members of al-Qaeda targets them as much as it
targets the Americans. At present, the Iraqi
government offers 1 million Iraqi dinars (US$812)
for every family (not individual) that returns to
Iraq. It's almost as if Maliki and Muqtada are
telling them: please, don't come back!
Maliki and Muqtada fear a rebirth of Iraqi
Sunnis at the expense of Shi'ites. This explains
18,000 Shi'ites being formally authorized to hold
arms by joining the Iraqi army. This explains why
Maliki is becoming bolder in turning his back on
the Accordance Front. Recently, he received a list
of 16 names earmarked to replace those of the
Accordance Front in government, put forward by the
Iraqi Awakening Council in Ramadi. Most prominent
on the list was Sheikh Hamid al-Hayes, ex-Anbar
Awakening president and current head of Iraq
Awakening.
Salim Abdullah, a spokesman for
the Iraqi Accordance Front, said, "Those who have
met Maliki from the Anbar Awakening and
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