Iran moves to pull a troublesome
thorn By Bernd Kaussler
The November 15 report by the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on
Iran's nuclear program indicates that Tehran is
still violating existing United Nations Security
Council resolutions by continuing the construction
of a heavy reactor and installing a total of 2,952
centrifuges needed for uranium enrichment.
International pressure on the Iranian
government to cease such work is likely to
increase in the following months. The present
stalemate on the nuclear negotiations coincides
with a tougher
US
strategy toward Iran, which includes designating
the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a
terrorist organization and implementing a new
round of unilateral sanctions.
While
military action is still not seen as a viable
option by the Department of Defense, there are
certainly many within and without the White House
who are growing increasingly restless about the
seeming futility of sanctions. The most vocal
advocate and perpetrator of violent regime change
in Iran is the Mujahideen-e-Khalq organization
(MEK), an Iranian opposition group designated as a
foreign terrorist organization by the United
States (Executive Order 13224, Department of
State, 2003) and the European Union.
A
2007 German intelligence report from the Federal
Office for the Protection of the Constitution
called the MEK a "repressive, sect-like and
Stalinist authoritarian organization which centers
around the personality cult of Maryam and Mas'ud
Rajavi".
During the initial phase of the
Iranian Revolution, the MEK was significantly
influenced by Marxist theories and concepts of
exploitation and class struggle, and particular
emphasis was placed on Ho Chi Minh and Che Guevara
and their ideas of guerrilla warfare. Besides
these foreign Marxist influences, the MEK's
ideology was also heavily informed by
Islamist/Marxist scholar Ali Shariati (1933-1977),
who wrote many treatises on the idea of suffering
and eternal struggle in Shi'ite doctrine,
combining it with socialist ideas of class
emancipation vis-a-vis secular tyranny.
When the Peoples' Mujahideen were excluded
from power sharing after 1979 and thousands of its
members were executed under Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini's orders, their struggle turned against
what was to become the Islamic Republic. To date,
the MEK's structure is heavily dominated by a
socialist outlook coupled with an Islamist veneer,
highlighting the concepts of justice in reference
to Shi'ite doctrines. The latter serves to
legitimize the MEK in the eyes of Iranians at home
and helps foster full commitment to the cause.
In October, the 4,000 residents of the
MEK's "Camp Ashraf" in Iraq staged a spectacular
large-scale festival that included extensive
military style parades, martial arts performances
and a display of unarmed combat units. Video
excerpts of the festivities were posted on
YouTube. The festival was as much a display of
military strength and the MEK's ongoing commitment
to fight the regime in Iran as it was a homage to
the two leaders of the MEK.
One of the
lingering questions surrounding the group's
continued existence is why it has not been
disbanded.
Following the 2003 invasion of
Iraq, the group was disarmed and many of its
members were questioned by the Central
Intelligence Agency and the Federal Bureau of
Investigation. Soon after, US Major General John D
Gardner confirmed the status of the residents of
Camp Ashraf as "protected persons" under the 4th
Geneva Convention, stating that "the coalition
remains deeply committed to the security and
rights of the protected people of Ashraf".
Evidently, one of Iran's key demands to
the US government is the closure of Camp Ashraf
and the subsequent expulsion of all MEK members.
Despite demands by the International Committee of
the Red Cross that residents of Camp Ashraf "must
not be deported, expelled or repatriated", Iraqi
Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said in April that
the Iraqi government intended to resettle MEK
members in European countries and set a deadline
of six months for the move. The resettlement is
unlikely to materialize given the EU's tough
stance toward the group and its umbrella
organization, the National Resistance Council for
Iran, but it still indicates that the MEK's host
country is becoming increasingly restless over its
presence.
By and large it seems that the
Iranian government is following a two-track
strategy with regards to the MEK base in Iraq.
Iranian diplomats in Iraq are putting increasing
pressure on Baghdad to expel the group from Iraqi
territory and to actively prosecute leading MEK
operatives. At the same time, Iranian authorities
continue to offer amnesties for members who cut
their ties with the group and return to Iran. The
MEK still creates serious security problems for
Iran; according to a recent speech by Foreign
Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, the group has killed
over 16,000 people in and outside Iran, including
one president, one prime minister, four ministers
and dozens of members of parliament.
Most
recently, Iranian authorities arrested a group of
MEK operatives for the assassination of Sheikh
Hashem Samiri, a Friday prayer leader in the city
of Ahwaz. The crime was linked to the earlier
September shooting of Sheikh Samir Durak, Friday
prayer leader in the Koy-e Alavi district.
Following numerous consultations with
Iraqi authorities, Tehran's lobbying efforts seem
to be paying off. Citing evidence of MEK
involvement in the current insurgency as well as
atrocities committed against Iraqi citizens,
Ja'afar al-Musawi, chief prosecutor of the Supreme
Iraqi Criminal Tribunal, issued arrest warrants
for 150 MEK members, including the group's leaders
Maryam and Mas'ud Rajavi. Though insisting that
all of them would be tried under the criminal
jurisdiction of Iraq and not be handed over to
Iran, Musawi indicated that extradition agreements
with Iran will be concluded in the near future.
At the same time, authorities in Iran are
wooing residents of Camp Ashraf to come back by
offering amnesty and re-socialization programs.
Since 2003, over 500 MEK members have returned to
Iran, been officially pardoned by Supreme Leader
Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and extensively
debriefed by Iranian intelligence. Iran's
judiciary officials continue to emphasize that
defectors from Camp Ashraf will not be prosecuted
on their return to Iran.
Though such
amnesty initiatives prove to be useful incentives
for disaffected members and their families, they
fall short of genuinely addressing Iranian
security concerns over the group's ongoing
activities in Iraq. The most urgent issue for
Tehran is what Mohammad Jafari of the Iranian
National Security Council described as
intelligence cooperation between US forces in Iraq
and MEK operatives sent across the border to spy
in Iranian territory.
Though such
accusations are difficult to verify, demands by
the Iraqi government to dismantle Camp Ashraf and
prosecute those charged with crimes have not yet
been met. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme
Islamic Iraqi Council, claims these efforts are
actively prevented by the United States. The
recent propaganda festival staged in Camp Ashraf
has only fueled Iranian suspicions that the MEK is
still considered by the United States as an
effective ally against Iran.
While there
is no evidence that the MEK enjoy any high-profile
support in the State Department or Pentagon, there
are certainly some on Capitol Hill who consider
any enemies of Iran as friends of the United
States. Most notably, congressmen Michael McCaul,
Nick Lampson and Brad Sherman have repeatedly
asked the US government to remove the MEK from the
terrorist list.
Echoing such demands, the
White Paper published by the US pressure group
Iran Policy Committee in 2007 perceives the MEK in
Iraq as "very useful for providing intelligence
for border controls and operations" and, because
of their "extensive network within Iran" and their
"excellent record of revealing key intelligence
about the IRGC proxies' infiltration routes into
Iraq", the MEK is seen as a viable "interlocutor"
between Washington and Sunni groups to quell Iraqi
sectarian violence.
Given Camp Ashraf
residents' legal limbo under the 4th Geneva
Convention, the United States is faced with the
highly complex decision of whether to hand over
MEK militants to Iraq or Iran, or arrange asylum
in a third country. Each choice carries
consequences for US-Iranian relations. Although
denied by US authorities, keeping the MEK in Iraq
may still be seen by some policymakers as
providing an effective bargaining chip in the
nuclear weapons negotiations.
Dr
Bernd Kaussler holds a MA and PhD from the
University of St. Andrews and is currently
assistant professor in political science at James
Madison University. As associate fellow at the
Institute for Iranian Studies at St Andrews, he is
involved in various research projects on
contemporary Iranian politics and foreign policy.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
