The
clock ticks for Iraq's time
bomb By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Celebrations on the streets;
young people dancing and taking pictures of each
other with mobile phones. Many unveiled women
promenading on the arms of their male friends.
Fireworks in the air with the voice of Kazem
al-Saher (a crooner from Iraq famous throughout
the Arab world) coming out of parked car radios.
Richer young people wining and dining at the
Sheraton or the Palestine Hotel. All of these
festivities over New Year in Baghdad were topped
with a complete electricity blackout that left the
city in darkness - and which made the fireworks
all the more beautiful.
But on January 1,
reality struck. The fun was over. A suicide bomber
walked into the condolence service for Lieutenant Nabil
Hussein Jasim, a retired
officer who was killed in a terrorist attack on
December 28. That attack, which took place in a
crowded market in Tayaren Square, left 14 people
dead. While people were mourning their deceased
officer, the suicide bomber denoted his
explosives, killing another 36 Iraqis.
This bloody welcome of 2008 reminded
Iraqis that they shouldn't get their hopes up too
high. On Christmas day, another suicide bomber had
killed 10 people at a funeral in Baquba, south of
Baghdad. While all of this was happening, a
massive clampdown took place in al-Dour, another
Iraqi city, where hundreds of young people were
arrested on suspicion of hiding Saddam Hussein's
former henchman, Ibrahim Izzat al-Douri, the
current secretary general of the disbanded Iraqi
Ba'ath Party.
Emotions in the Sunni
community of Iraq had already been sour,
commemorating the first anniversary of the death
of their former president in December 2006. The
clampdown in al-Dour only made things worse for
Sunnis.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki, who is blamed by most Iraqis for the
deteriorating security condition, was in London
for medical check-ups after having suffered "mild
exhaustion". The timing for his trip could not
have been worse. Last year, while Saddam was being
hanged - to the horror of most Sunnis - Maliki
hosted a gala dinner on the occasion of the
marriage of his eldest son.
Then, Maliki's
arrogance and disrespect for Sunnis added insult
to injury, leading to a series of attacks that
left 80 people dead in one day. This time, not
only did Maliki fly off to Britain, but he also
sparked more animosity by proposing a limited
amnesty for Sunnis.
That was sent to
Parliament by the Maliki government. A "crippled
amnesty" most Iraqis are saying is like no amnesty
at all. Maliki's bill excludes most of the 45,000
Iraqis currently in jail (20,000 are held by Iraqi
authorities and 25,000 are in US custody). Only
5,000 people would be released since Maliki
excludes those held in US custody, those
imprisoned for crimes like "terrorism" and those
who had held senior office under Saddam.
Passing the "crippled amnesty" to
Parliament means that Sunnis will have to wait
some time to see its results. Parliament is
notorious for the slowness of its procedures, with
bills like those calling on former Ba'athists to
resume their jobs in the civil service gathering
dust from lack of proper legislation.
It
is unknown if Maliki was following, while in
London, the numerous reports that came out
regarding the 2007 death toll in Iraq. The highly
reliable Iraqi Body Count said 24,000 civilians
were killed. The Associated Press put the number
at 18,610. Maliki's own Ministry of Interior
revealed 16,232 civilian deaths, 432 soldiers and
1,300 policemen. In 2006, the numbers had been
12,371 civilian deaths, 603 soldiers and 1,224
policemen.
Last December alone, a total of
691 people were killed. That, authorities claim,
is a grand achievement compared to the 2,309
killed in December 2006. Iraqi authorities are
pointing to the figures as a relative improvement
in the security situation thanks to the prime
minister's security plan, launched in 2007 with
the help of an additional 30,000 US troops. The
Ministry of Interior claims that these numbers
spell out victory for Maliki, along with the fact
that 75% of al-Qaeda in Iraq has been
"annihilated".
The real reasons behind
better security are 1) the cooperation of Iran; 2)
the freeze on all paramilitary activity by the
Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr; 3) the
anti-al-Qaeda Sunni groups (the Anbar Awakening
Council) that currently number approximately
30,000.
A lot of indoctrination - and
money - is being invested into combating al-Qaeda.
Last week, a senior al-Qaeda commander, Adnan
Khalil al-Faraj, was arrested in Mosul and
another, Ahmad Turky, the "defense minister of the
Islamic State of Iraq", was apprehended in a small
village near Baghdad. Recently, Sheikh Mohammad
Saleh al-Dohan, a leading Sunni tribesman from
Ramadi who is cooperating with the Americans on
al-Qaeda, delivered an inflammatory speech to his
followers, saying: "We consider our fighting
against al-Qaeda to be a popular revolution
against the devil." He added that al-Qaeda "made
enemies between Sunnis, Shi'ites and Christians
who lived in peace for centuries".
He then
pointed to Osama bin Laden and his men, describing
them as "traitors who betrayed the Muslim nation
and brought shame to Islam in all the world".
Such rhetoric, along with a salary of
US$300 for anybody combating al-Qaeda with the
Awakening Council, is the real reason behind the
drop in violence - not Maliki. The prime minister
after all is much opposed to these US-backed Sunni
groups, claiming that once they rid themselves of
al-Qaeda they will turn to fighting Shi'ites. In
response to what they are doing, he has ordered
Shi'ite militias to flock into the police and
armed forces. This will legitimize their arms in
case an armed conflict erupts between Sunnis and
Shi'ites.
Responding to the calls of
clerics like Sheikh Dohan, bin Laden himself came
out and criticized the Awakening Council in an
audio message broadcast last week, warning Sunnis
against joining these US-backed organizations.
Those who did join, he said, "have betrayed the
nation and brought disgrace and shame to their
people. They will suffer in the life and
afterlife."
Ordinary Sunnis, meanwhile,
are confused as who to believe. Both Sunni
tribesmen and bin Laden speak to them about
"betrayal", "shame" and "disgrace". The
determining factors are how much each party pays
and how much networking and indoctrination is done
by each party. There is one thing that all Sunnis
agree on, both those who are working with and
against al-Qaeda: the era of Maliki is worse than
that of Saddam.
Apart from political
representation, which is almost lacking in today's
Iraq that is dominated by Shi'ite leaders, the
Sunnis complain of a variety of shortcomings that
did not exist - or were minimal - under Saddam.
Under Maliki, for example, electricity comes one
hour every three days. Under Saddam it went off
only two hours during the day and two hours during
the night. A gas cylinder under Saddam cost 1,500
dinars (US$1.20) whereas now it has become 16,000
dinars. Oil - during this heavy winter - has
reached 20,000 dinars. One liter of gasoline, for
example, equals $1, whereas under Saddam it used
to be 3 cents per liter.
The Dubai-based
daily Gulf News ran a story quoting several Iraqis
on the anniversary of Saddam's execution, with one
of them saying: "I am an employee at the Ministry
of Industry. My salary is 400,000 dinars, which is
a big salary compared to Saddam's time when I used
to get 4,000 dinars. But with inflation, I
practically make less than what I used to."
An academic, who requested that his name
remain anonymous, spoke to Asia Times Online,
saying: "Some would say that under Saddam we were
below zero and that we have now improved. I don't
agree with that. If we were at zero [level] under
Saddam, we have sunk to below zero today."
Speaking from his new home in Damascus,
where he has fled terrorist bombings in his own
country, the young man added: "I long for the days
of Saddam Hussein. If you stayed away from
politics, you lived a decent and respectable life.
Nowadays, you are a target for terrorist attacks
whether you are a grocer, a barber, a painter or a
politician. Nobody is safe in this Iraq." He
wrapped up: "My mother's generation used to go out
in Baghdad wearing mini-skirts in the 1950s. Do
you think they, or your people in their 20s, can
do that today without being accused of being
infidels?"
A final source of mistrust and
anger in the Sunni community remains - as it has
for the past 12 months - the issue of oil-rich
Kirkuk province, which faces a referendum to see
whether it should be incorporated into Iraqi
Kurdistan. As far as Sunnis are concerned, the
Kurds must not get it - under any cost. That would
make the central government in Baghdad all the
weaker and inspire a similar break-away for the
Shi'ite community in southern Iraq.
The
Sunnis have been frowning for some time,
especially since the government of Iraqi Kurdistan
started signing independent oil extraction
contacts with foreign companies, in total
disregard of the Baghdad government. To date, more
than 20 contacts have been authorized, prompting
Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani to call these
contracts "illegal".
There is strong
backing in the Sunni community for the Turkish air
raids on northern Iraq (although many Iraqis might
not say it). These attacks against Kurdish rebels
have prompted Kurdish politicians to threaten to
break away from the Maliki cabinet. The prime
minister still walks the same right rope that he
did throughout 2007. He still has to try to
appease the regional Sunni community (Turkey
included) by working towards rapprochement with
Iraq's Sunnis. That is also a US request. He also
has to please Iran by continuing to court - and
protect - the Shi'ites. He has to please the Kurds
by granting them Kirkuk. He has to please ordinary
Iraqis by giving them better security. And it is
quiet clear that since he came to power in 2006,
he just cannot deliver on any of the above.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian
political analyst.
(Copyright 2008
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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