US beats a Middle East policy
retreat By Adam Morrow and
Khaled Moussa al-Omrani
CAIRO - Recent
months have witnessed several notable political
reorientations in the Middle East, involving Iran,
the Gulf states, Egypt and Lebanon. Several
experts say the changes reflect a shift in
Washington's regional strategy following recent
policy setbacks.
"US policies in the
region are either in retreat or undergoing
re-examination," Ayman Abelaziz Salaama,
international law professor at Cairo University,
told Inter Press Service. "Washington's project
for a new Middle East - launched in 2001
with
the aim of redrawing the region to suit US
interests - has failed."
The most notable
manifestation of this retreat is considered to be
Washington's apparent change of tack on Iran. A
widely-publicized US intelligence report in early
December devastated claims by both the George W
Bush administration and Tel Aviv that Tehran was
developing nuclear weapons. Since then, US
statements suggest that - while Washington will
continue to press for economic sanctions against
Tehran - the notion of a US-led attack on the
Islamic republic has been shelved.
What's
more, the US State Department has shown a new
willingness to engage Tehran diplomatically in an
effort to garner Iranian cooperation in Iraq.
"The US has obviously changed course on
Iran," Essam al-Arian, a leading member of Egypt's
Muslim Brotherhood opposition movement and head of
the group's political department, told IPS. "The
intelligence report has ensured that a US-led war
on Iran is off the table."
Bush is
currently on a tour of the Middle East that will
take him to Israel, Palestine, Kuwait, Bahrain,
the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt
The apparent US stand-down has been
accompanied by several signs of diplomatic
rapprochement between Washington's Arab allies and
Tehran.
In early December, Iranian
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad was invited to attend
a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit - a first
for an Iranian head of state - held in Qatar. "It
seems a new chapter has been opened in relations
between the Persian and the Gulf states,"
Ahmadinejad reportedly told the conference.
Days later, at a regional security summit
held in Bahrain, representatives from a number of
Arab countries bluntly declared their opposition
to a would-be military strike against Iran. "We
want the military factor to be eliminated," GCC
secretary general Abdul-Rahman al-Attiya said at
the conference, which was also attended by US
Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
According
to Salaama, the Gulf states - like most of
Washington's Arab allies in the region - are all
too relieved to be rid of the specter of a US-Iran
showdown.
"The last thing the GCC states
want is to have Iran - just across the gulf - as
an enemy," he said. "Also, with significant
Shi'ite populations, they are more susceptible to
Iranian influence than other countries in the
region."
In a January 6 interview, Arab
League secretary general Amr Moussa defended the
right of Arab capitals to set their own policies
vis-a-vis Tehran. "As long as it has no nuclear
program, why should we isolate Iran?" he was
quoted as saying in a reference to the recent US
intelligence assessment.
Egypt, too, which
has not had diplomatic relations with Iran since
1979, appears to be flirting with the idea of
rapprochement.
Late last month, Ali
Larijani, head of Iran's National Security
Council, visited Cairo where he met with a number
of prominent government officials. The visit,
which came in the wake of other high-profile
exchanges, has prompted considerable speculation
that diplomatic normalization between Cairo and
Tehran is on the horizon.
Along with the
apparent shift on Iran comes political
reorientations by US allies in Lebanon. Lebanon
remains the scene of a drawn-out power struggle
between the Western-backed government in Beirut
and the opposition led by Shi'ite resistance group
Hezbollah. The conflict has lately culminated in a
full-blown presidential crisis, with both sides
intent on deciding the choice of the country's
next president.
In a notable shift last
month, the anti-Syrian government majority
announced its willingness to accept army commander
Michel Suleiman as a potential presidential
candidate. Previously, government figures had
voiced opposition to Suleiman's candidacy in light
of the army chief's amicable relationship with
Hezbollah.
Notably, the about-face came
despite earlier statements by US Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice in which she urged the
government not to compromise on the issue of the
presidency.
"The US didn't want Suleiman
as president because of his good working
relationship with Hezbollah," Abdel-Halim Kandil,
political analyst and former editor-in-chief of
opposition weekly al-Karama, told IPS. "But
Washington was unable to impose this demand on its
allies in the government."
According to
Salaama, the shift must be seen within the context
of Israel's inability - despite unqualified US
support - to disarm Hezbollah during its 2006
summer with Lebanon.
"Israel, and by
extension the US, failed to disarm Hezbollah by
force," he said. "This changed the regional
balance of power and had a profound impact on US
policy in the Middle East."
In light of
these developments, he added, the notion of
disarming the Shi'ite resistance group - an ally
of Iran and Syria - now seems farther away than
ever.
"There may be UN Security Council
resolutions calling for disarmament of Hezbollah,
but they are far from being implemented," said
Salaama.
Another factor in the seeming US
policy retreat, say observers, is the US
military's poor showing after almost five years in
Iraq. "The US went from launching a quick war for
regime change to maintaining a long-term
occupation of Iraq," said Salaama. "Now, despite
new counter-insurgency strategies, the American
military remains bogged down with mounting
military and economic losses."
According
to Kandil, the US failure to win decisively in
Iraq has forced Arab capitals to reassess the
vaunted US military might. "Given the situation in
Iraq, the Arab regimes now realize that US power
isn't absolute - and can even be resisted," he
said.
Military strategy aside, local
observers also point to Washington's shattered
credibility as an arbitrator in the
Israel-Palestine conflict, particularly after the
US-sponsored Annapolis summit in November.
Ostensibly held to restart the moribund
Arab-Israeli peace process, the event was attended
by representatives from Israel, the Ramallah-based
Palestinian Authority and 16 Arab nations. But
while the conference was heavy on Tel Aviv's
security concerns, longstanding Arab demands -
chief among them the establishment of a
Palestinian state - were conspicuously absent.
"The Arabs went to Annapolis despite serious
reservations, based on Washington's promises that
Israel would show flexibility," said Kandil. "But
the US totally failed to deliver, embarrassing the
Arab regimes in front of their respective
publics."
Arian echoed this theme, saying,
"Even Arab governments allied with the US were
deeply embarrassed by the lack of results."
Many Arab commentators also point to the
US failure to advance the twin causes of democracy
and human rights in the region - both of which had
been major components of Washington's
post-September 11, 2001, vision for a "new Middle
East".
"The US can't call for democracy
and human rights while simultaneously committing
war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan," said Salaama.
"America was once seen as a champion of freedom -
now it's perceived as a human rights violator."
According to Kandil, these accumulated US
failures - both military and moral - have led the
region's capitals to re-examine their priorities.
"Until now, the Arab regimes have blindly
followed the US, thinking they needed it to keep
them in power," he said. "But recent development
are prompting them to reassesses this assumption.
The era of US hegemony is ending," Kandil added.
"And a new era of cooperation between regional
actors - looking for new means to achieve their
ends - has begun."
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