Europe faces up to Iranian
threat By Olivier Guitta
United States President George W Bush has
just ended a seven-nation tour of the Middle East
trying to gather support on the Iranian threat. He
does not need to fly to Europe to convince some
European nations of the gravity of the threat. In
fact, the December US National Intelligence
Estimate (NIE) report did not change a thing in
Europe's assessment of the Iranian danger, even
though it said Iran had halted its nuclear weapons
program years ago.
A not well-known fact
shows Europe's determination vis-a-vis Iran: the
European Union has gone further than the two
United Nations
Security Council resolutions
against Iran actually require. It has sanctioned
additional entities and banned some additional
transactions.
For instance, Dutch
universities and research centers have been told
by authorities to be very careful in accepting
Iranian students, especially those studying
sensitive subjects. For example, Twente University
just refused admission to three Iranian students
wanting to study nuclear techniques. It is also
thinking about refusing to admit altogether any
students coming from Iran.
This European
tough stance is all the more surprising since huge
commercial interests are at stake. In fact, as of
2006, the EU was from far the largest Iranian
trade partner at 28% - before China at 12%.
Interestingly, one of Iran's largest trading
partner is France. And France under the new
Nicolas Sarkozy administration, has taken the lead
on the Iranian nuclear issue.
Compared to
his predecessor Jacques Chirac, Sarkozy has been
quite forceful and consistent on his statements
regarding Iran. He has time and again said Iran
must be prevented from getting a nuclear bomb.
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner went as far as
saying that the world should be prepared for war
over this issue. Also, Sarkozy has been pushing
hard to convince EU countries to adopt their own
sanctions against Iran. Iran is noticing this
change of heart from some Europeans nations and is
not liking it a bit.
In fact, Iranian
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has threatened French
President Nicolas Sarkozy in a November 12 letter.
According to diplomatic sources cited by Le Monde,
the tone of the letter was "acrimonious" and it
contained "veiled threats". In substance, the
Iranian president says France and Iran have
"historic relations" and "common interests", in
particular in Lebanon, and that it would be a
shame to reduce this to nothing. Also, Ahmadinejad
is upset by the French proposal to adopt sanctions
against Iran at the EU level, ie outside of the
United Nations.
It is interesting to note
that Ahmadinejad added that such an approach is
doomed to failure because neither Germany nor
Italy would sign on. But in light of recent
developments, Ahmadinejad's analysis seems flawed.
Indeed, the word from Berlin is that the Angela
Merkel administration is ready to accept
sanctioning Iran at the EU level if a third wave
of sanctions fail at the UN, which is a given.
And this is a change. In fact, Germany was
until this year Iran's largest trading partner
(China is currently first) and has been reluctant
in the past to adopt a hard line against the
regime in Tehran. But in a clear sign of
disengagement, German exports to Iran fell 16% in
2007 and German banks have cut lots of ties with
Iranian clients.
But in light of this,
Iran could use the terrorism weapon to punish
European nations. For example, the Ahmadinejad
letter was also a warning to French soldiers
present among the United Nations Interim Force in
Lebanon contingent in southern Lebanon. Also, it
is very likely that Iran could use its proxy,
Hezbollah, to orchestrate a terror campaign in
Europe or against European interests around the
world, as it did in 1986 in the streets of Paris.
At the end of November, British authorities
confirmed that some Hezbollah sleeper cells
disseminated throughout the United Kingdom were
threatening to strike in case of attacks against
Iran. Iran financed the Hezbollah cells at the
onset of its nuclear program, expecting an armed
conflict. These cells are just awaiting Tehran's
orders to strike. And Europe might well be the
first target.
Olivier Guitta, an
adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense
of Democracies and a foreign affairs and
counter-terrorism consultant, is the founder of
the newsletter The Croissant
(www.thecroissant.com).
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