Europe alert to triple terror
threat By Olivier Guitta
Last November, Gilles de Kerchove, the
European Union's anti-terror chief, said that
al-Qaeda was the biggest threat to Europe. To
confirm this, Western intelligence services have
recently established operational links between
al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and al-Qaeda in The
Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) whose goals include
striking at the heart of Europe.
Al-Qaeda
has not made any secret of its eagerness to target
Europe. Indeed, Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's
number two, has repeatedly threatened Europe. In
2007, numerous al-Qaeda-linked plots were foiled
in Europe and several cells were dismantled in
France, Spain, Denmark, Belgium, Germany and the
United Kingdom. In September, thanks to
information provided by US intelligence, Germany
arrested three members of an al-Qaeda cell that
planned on blowing up the US military base of
Ramstein and
the
Frankfurt airport.
This network allegedly
had ties to other European countries since the
explosives seized were similar to those used in
the London attacks. The investigation also showed
that the terrorists had connections to both
Pakistan and Syria. Another important fact is that
two out of the three alleged terrorists were
Muslim converts. In fact, al-Qaeda has for a long
time advocated using European nationals, and if
possible converts, in terror attacks.
Incidentally, German intelligence
confirmed that, in the past few months, Islamist
recruiters targeted new converts to Islam. The
reason being that the latter are less easily
identifiable and have better understandings of
German culture and habits. Also what particularly
worries German authorities is the rise in the
number of young German Muslims traveling to study
in Pakistan.
For proof, in July, Pakistani
authorities arrested seven Germans that sought to
join a terror training camp. The Pakistani
connection does not stop there: Pakistani
terrorists recently arrived in Algeria to train
with AQIM members.
All the more worrisome
is that of all al-Qaeda's affiliates, AQIM is the
organization most capable of striking at Europe.
In 2007, AQIM pulled off numerous major and
spectacular and deadly terror attacks in Morocco,
Mauritania (recently killing French tourists) and
especially in Algeria with the multiple suicide
attacks in Algiers on April 11 and December 11.
But the real challenge for AQIM is to
inflict massive damage to Europe. Zawahiri
instructed them to do so on multiple occasions. In
order to keep its credibility alive and please its
"masters", AQIM has been trying hard to
orchestrate a terror attack on the continent.
At the end of last year, the level of
"chatter" increased dramatically and has continued
unabated since then. This led to the first-ever
cancellation of the popular Paris-Dakar auto race
and also compelled Belgian authorities to cancel
New Year's Eve fireworks in Brussels.
Today, al-Qaeda threats seem even more
imminent and European security services are on
high alert. On January 19, Spain dismantled an
al-Qaeda cell that was almost exclusively
Pakistani, except for an Indian Muslim member. It
was planning a terror attack in Barcelona and, as
El Pais reported, a wave of attacks in Germany,
France, Britain and Portugal. Also Le Figaro
reported earlier that there are allegedly "moving
cells" composed of terrorists of Pakistani origin
traveling around Europe.
That article also
pointed out that 50,000 Pakistanis (half of them
illegals) live in France. Finally, a very
worrisome trend in 2007 was the emergence of the
"lone jihadi", loosely linked to al-Qaeda. One of
them was arrested on May 2 in Nancy, France. He
was planning attacks against the US Consulate in
Luxembourg and a McDonald's.
For months,
he had been in touch on the Internet with AQIM
militants, asking them for material support.
Sometimes these "invisible Islamists", known to
"fly under the radar" of security networks, decide
to act on their own. Said Christophe Chaboud, head
of Uclat (Unit'de Coordination de la Lutte
antiterroriste), the French counterterrorism czar,
"An isolated individual can today inflict as much
damage as an organization."
At the moment,
Europe is facing a triple threat: AQIM, "al-Qaeda
Pakistan" and the loosely al-Qaeda-affiliated
"lone jihadis". Unfortunately, the likelihood of a
successful terror attack on European soil in 2008
remains quite high.
Olivier Guitta,
an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the
Defense of Democracies and a foreign affairs and
counterterrorism consultant, is the founder of the
newsletter The Croissant (www.thecroissant.com).
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