COMMENT Big bang or chaos:
What's Israel up to? By Ramzy
Baroud
Why did Israel attack Gaza with
such brutality? Did Israeli officials think, even
for a fleeting moment, that their army's attacks
could halt, as opposed to intensify, Palestinian
rockets or retaliatory violence? Indeed, was
Palestinian violence at all relevant to the
Israeli action? Was the Israeli bloodletting in
Gaza solely relevant to the Gaza/Hamas context, or
is there a regional dimension that is largely
being overlooked?
In an al-Jazeera English
TV discussion, Israeli journalist Gideon Levy and
al-Quds al-Arabi editor-in-chief Abd al-Bari Atwan
attempted to decipher Israel's actions in Gaza
which have, since February 27, killed more than
120 Palestinians and four Israeli soldiers. These
attacks were followed by incursions and further
violence, including an attack
on a Jewish seminary school in Jerusalem.
Levy explained that Israeli Defense
Minister Ehud Barak wanted to demonstrate to the
Israeli public that he was "doing something" about
the regular launching of rockets from Gaza.
Although Levy wasn't justifying the Israeli
government's inhumane and misguided logic, he
disagreed with Atwan over the use of terminology.
The latter (who is also an outstanding journalist)
had asserted that the killings in Gaza represented
a form of "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing".
Arab intellectuals, often wary of the use
of certain terminology - since Western
sensibilities don't accept associating Israel with
genocide and ethnic cleansing - became less
hesitant after Israeli Deputy Defense Minister
Matan Vilnai warned Palestinians in a radio
interview to expect a "bigger Holocaust".
But terminology aside, are we to really
believe that the wanton killing in Gaza - a major
violation of international and humanitarian laws -
was meant to send a message to the Israeli public,
or to carry out genocide for its own sake?
Initially, albeit unsurprisingly, the
Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas seemed
oblivious, and then at best neutral, to the
carnage. First, it asked both Israel and Hamas to
cease their violence, and then it accused Israel
of attempting to "derail" the peace process (what
peace process?). Finally, and only after the
Vatican, thankfully, decried the Israeli killings,
Abbas announced the halt of all contacts with
Israel.
A few days later, following a trip
by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to the
region, Abbas reversed his position. Nabil Abu
Rudeineh, spokesman of the presidency, quoted
Abbas as stating that "we intend to resume the
peace talks with Israel which reserve the aim of
ending the occupation".
Considering the
heavy toll that Palestinians endured by a
deliberate Israeli attempt to cause a "bigger
holocaust", Abbas' agreement to the resumption of
futile chats with the same men who ordered the
death of scores of his people is a mockery to say
the least.
While Palestinian, Israeli and
international responses to violence remain
predictable, this view still doesn't explain the
timing or the underlying objectives.
In my
view, historically, Israel's behavior, regardless
of its outcome, is always politically motivated,
and it never fails to keep a regional picture in
mind.
There are two lines of military
logic that Israel resorts to. One is motivated by
the "chaos theory", the idea that seemingly minor
events accumulate to have complex and massive
effects on dynamic natural systems. For example,
Gaza might have been attacked with the hope of
provoking a streak of suicide bombings that would
eventually be blamed on Syrian planning and
Iranian financing - thus provoking a major
showdown in Lebanon. The history of Israeli-Arab
conflicts demonstrates how many major invasions
are justified by seemingly irrelevant events, such
as the 1982 Lebanon War.
But is Israel
capable of sustaining another conflict in Lebanon
after its miserable - and costly - failure in
July-August 2006?
That's when the US
becomes even more relevant. Just as Israeli
attacks occupied major headlines around the world,
the USS Cole and two additional ships - including
one amphibious assault vessel - were quietly
making their way from Malta to the shores of
Lebanon. The ships were dispatched as a "show of
support for regional stability", according to US
Navy officials.
With the gung-ho George W
Bush administration's time in office coming to an
end and waning public enthusiasm for war against
Iran, Israel cannot afford allowing the regional
setup to be stacked in the following way:
Hezbollah dominating south Lebanon, Hamas
dominating Gaza and Iran becoming an increasingly
formidable regional power.
This leads to
the other line of Israeli military logic, the "big
bang" theory. The self-explanatory logic of this
theory is applicable in the sense that a regional
war - accompanied by mini civil wars in Palestine
and Lebanon, along with other attempts at
destabilizing Iran and Syria - could work in
Israel's favor.
Under no condition would
the US be able stay out of such a conflict
(considering its regional interests, allies and
own war in Iraq). Revelations of the sinister role
played by the Bush administration in organizing
and provoking a civil war among Palestinians shows
the extent to which Bush is willing to go to
achieve Israel's objectives. More, it shows the
willingness of various Arab and Palestinian
players to readily participate in the bloody and
costly US-Israeli ventures.
With all due
respect to Levy and Atwan, I think Israel's main
aim was neither to send a message to its public
nor to commit genocide - though these are not
unreasonable possibilities. Indeed, the majority
of the Israeli public, according to a Tel Aviv
University poll, wished that their government
would negotiate a ceasefire with Hamas, as bombs
were falling atop the hapless Gaza residents.
The facts - as demonstrated by the
US-Israeli role in the turmoil in Lebanon, the
consistent attempt to arraign Iran, and the
Israeli provocations and bombings in Syria - all
indicate that Israel's plans are regional, with
Gaza being a testing ground, and the least costly
target to isolate and brutalize. Already a massive
concentration camp with a largely starving
population, Gaza has provided Israel with a
perfect opportunity to start sending stern
messages to the other players in the region.
Ramzy Baroud
(www.ramzybaroud.net) is an author and editor of
PalestineChronicle.com. His work has been
published in many newspapers and journals
worldwide. His latest book is The Second
Palestinian Intifada: A Chronicle of a People's
Struggle (Pluto Press, London).
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