Page 2 of
2 Energized Iran builds more
bridges By M K
Bhadrakumar
Sobolev's Iranian counterpart,
Saeed Jalili, said the talks were "positive and
constructive". Sobolev brought a letter from
Russian President Vladimir Putin to Ahmadinejad
assuring the latter Moscow "confirms the
principled position in its relations with Iran,
and that its policy does not depend on who is in
power at any moment". Ahmadinejad responded, "Iran
and Russia are two major powerful countries, and
cooperation between our states in settling various
problems will serve the interests of the Iranian
and Russian nations as well as regional and
international security". He said the two countries
could play "an efficient role in establishing a
new model of international relations".
However, Sobolev's consultations did not
quite proceed the way
Moscow expected. The gas
cartel idea has run into difficulties. The Russian
media reported that the ministerial meeting of the
Gas Exporting Countries' forum, which was
scheduled to be held in Moscow on June 24, stood
postponed. Moscow wants engagement with Iran
within a loosely held gas alliance and is
unwilling to commit itself to "excessive
obligations", as Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya
Gazeta reported on the April 28 meeting in Tehran.
To quote the daily, "Iran insists on the
soonest possible formation of the new cartel [so
as] to resolve its political problems ... [On the
other hand], Russia, which is the largest gas
supplier to Europe, builds its relations with EU
[European Union] countries on the basis of
long-term agreements and prices tied to world oil
prices. It has no intention of changing its export
scheme or coordinating its gas prices with other
participants in the cartel."
Iran has
its own plans Iran pitches for a gas cartel
with regulatory mechanisms on quota production and
pricing, whereas Russia prefers a networking by
gas producing countries with the accent on market
sharing and transit routes. Evidently, Moscow is
nervous that Iranian gas could revive the Nabucco
gas pipeline supported by the European Union, just
when, thanks to its deft maneuverings over the
past year by projecting the rival South Stream, it
thought it had all but killed the US-backed
project. Again, the Iran-Switzerland gas deal
means the early commissioning of the
Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), a joint project
between Swiss company EGL and Norway's
StatoilHydro. In short, Iranian gas could find its
way to Europe through these two pipelines in the
near future - Nabucco and TAP. Moscow would
not like such a turn of events. As Tomberg put it,
"Tehran has been pursuing a more energetic gas
policy, indicating its readiness to cooperate with
the European Union ... This can be interpreted as
the struggle for the vast - some say inexhaustible
- European gas market ... Competition on the gas
market will soon affect prices ... Meanwhile, Iran
is playing on the EU's desire to ease its
dependence on Russia and save money." Tomberg
concludes, "Iran and Russia should probably not
compete against each other but join hands on the
gas market ... Moreover, there could be an
agreement under which Russia will continue to
supply gas to Europe, while Iran will export its
gas to the East."
But will the Iranians
heed such advice? It is the million-dollar
question. The Iranians want to keep all options
open. In any case, why should they stay out of the
European market? Energy exports would be the
bridge that facilitated Iran's all-round
integration with the Western world. The Iranian
elites know that the "East" will not and could not
compensate Iran for forgoing the European option.
Equally, Tehran is frustrated with the
presumptuousness that underlines the thinking
behind these potential eastern partners, who opt
for selective engagement of Iran rather than
having the willingness to offer comprehensive
strategic cooperation with Iran based on shared
concerns and interests in a multipolar world.
Sobolev tried to inject some much-needed
vitality into Russian-Iranian relations by
discussing "military-technical cooperation" and by
giving a clean chit to Iran's nuclear program. But
that may not be enough. Meanwhile, the negative
stance by Russia and China with regard to Iran's
application for full membership of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) threatens to become
an irritant.
The Russian dilemma is that
it does not want to go the whole hog with Iran, as
that would complicate Russia-US relations.
Interestingly, on Friday, apart from the "Iran
Six" foreign ministers, London also hosted
consultations involving Russia and the US over
Kosovo and the Middle East situation. Meanwhile,
Russia-US consultations over the US's missile
defense deployment in central Europe are
continuing and new tensions have appeared in
Russia-Georgia relations with the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization openly backing Tbilisi. Moscow
is also carefully marking time until a new
administration settles into Washington next year.
Nonetheless, the competing energy security
interests of the EU, Russia and China were
reflected at the London meeting of the "Iran Six"
last Friday. Plainly put, no one wants
confrontation with Iran. Mottaki said Iran would
soon have its own "package of proposals" to
resolve all regional and international problems,
including its nuclear program. In essence, after
having thwarted the US's campaign to isolate it,
Iran is now shifting diplomatic gear to ensure
that its integration with the international
community becomes irreversible. It looks beyond
the lame-duck George W Bush administration and is
judging the mood in the US correctly.
According to a major survey released in
Washington last Wednesday by the prestigious
Foreign Affairs journal (see Economic woes take US center
stage Asia Times Online, May 2, 2008) ,
energy costs are the number one foreign policy
concern for seven out of 10 American respondents;
the economy has pushed "terrorism" into second
place. A large plurality of opinion favors
effective American diplomacy to try to establish
better relations with Iran. Energy security
outpaced all other concerns by a long shot. The
survey underscored that American opinion is
connecting energy policy to national security
issues in an unprecedented way.
M K
Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the
Indian Foreign Service for over 29 years, with
postings including India's ambassador to
Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
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