Hezbollah's street fight
just a first step
By Mona Alami
BEIRUT - At least 38 people were killed and 30 injured in the recent gun
battles pitting opposition Shi'ite Amal and Hezbollah fighters against members
of the Sunni Future Movement, which is part of the majority March 14 alliance
in government. As the opposition's militia clamped down on government
headquarters, the balance of power seems to have been shifted permanently in
the Land of the Cedars.
Since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005 -
allegedly at the hands of the Syrians - and the subsequent resignation of
Shi'ite ministers from government, conflict between the opposition and majority
factions has been brewing. The government comprises the Sunni Future Movement
(headed by Saad Hariri, son of slain premier Hariri), the Druze Progressive
Socialist Party (PSP), the Christian Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb party.
For the past three years, the Syrian- and Iranian-backed opposition has been
battling the Western-backed majority, originally over the internationalization
of the tribunal for the prosecution of Hariri's killers.
Since the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990 and the signing of the Taef
Accord by all participating parties - which called for the equal division of
power among Muslims and Christians and the demilitarization of all militia
groups - Hezbollah, under the banner of resistance, has been the only party in
Lebanon to keep its military arsenal.
However, with the pullout of Israel from Lebanon in 2000 (with the exception of
the Chebaa farms enclave, the rights to which remains the subject of much
debate between Lebanon, Syria and Israel), the role of Hezbollah and the
legitimacy of its weapons was once again at the forefront of the political
scene.
Tensions culminated in violence last Wednesday when protests called against
difficult living conditions and high inflation turned into massive riots, with
opposition Shi'ite Hezbollah and Amal forces fighting Sunni Future Movement
members. The clashes were politically dovetailed on Thursday by a speech by
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denouncing the removal of Brigadier Wafic
Shoucair from his post as head of airport security, and the government's
investigation into Hezbollah's independent telecommunication network.
Hezbollah's leader ominously called the cabinet's decisions a "declaration of
war", and the echoing gunfire in the capital's mazy streets and posh
neighborhoods seemed to confirm the announcement.
The Future Movement, clearly ill-prepared and poorly trained for combat,
retreated in the face of armed opposition factions that managed to take control
of Beirut in less than 48 hours, and surround the residences of Saad Hariri,
PSP leader Walid Joumblat and the government building, which remain cordoned
off by a protective buffer of Lebanese armed forces.
As the opposition forces advanced in Beirut, they systematically vandalized the
property of majority figures and party members. A woman who gave her name only
as Maya, a resident in the predominantly PSP area of Karakol Druze, witnessed
the trashing of her parking lot by gunmen before the intervention of her
neighbor, a Hezbollah member, who also prevented the militia men from entering
the building. "It was extremely frightening, they actually intended to storm
the building," said the mother of two toddlers.
Odette Alameh, who lives in the vicinity of Saad Hariri's residence, said her
building was targeted by gunmen posted on the rooftops of a nearby construction
site. The Future TV news offices were burned down by the Syrian Socialist
Nationalist Party, which erected flags on the blackened remains of the besieged
building.
Ahmad, a resident of the mostly Sunni Ain Mreisseh area, said a neighboring
building was stormed at 3:30 am by militia men, allegedly leading to the
removal of a Future Movement party member. Inter Press Service was unable,
however, to confirm the information. Future Movement member of parliament Ammar
Houry's apartment in the affluent Tallet Khayat area was ransacked by
opposition gunmen, who, according to neighbors, also searched the building for
weapons.
Throughout the violent events, the army's approach has been one of positive
neutrality in favor of the opposition. The Lebanese armed forces have refrained
from declaring a state of emergency and refused to take part in the clashes,
not leaving the government much margin for maneuvering.
"This is nothing short of a new phase in Lebanese politics," said political
scientist Amal Saad Ghorayeb, author of Hezbollah: Politics and Religion.
"The government's decision [to remove airport security head Shoucair and
denounce the party's private communication network] was unprecedented, and
de-legitimized the party's right to resist. I do not see, however, the conflict
prevailing for more than a few days," she said. "I expect it to come to a quick
resolve, due to the obvious disequilibrium in the balance of power."
The political scientist stated that Hezbollah's proven military superiority
will pressure the majority into a compromise. "It is inevitable - the
government will have to resign," she said. Saad Ghorayeb predicts that an
interim consensus government will call for early parliamentary elections, a
longstanding demand of the opposition.
As fighting subsides and the opposition asserts its control over the city's
western areas, the implications of the events unfolding in Beirut will
certainly reach beyond the country's boundaries. "This will lead without a
doubt to a drastic reconfiguration of the political order and might pave the
way to a revision of the Taef accords, in order to correct the system's
imbalances," said Ghorayeb.
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