Iran fumes as Syria nods to Arab world
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - The strings pulled by Qatar, which helped end the stand-off in
Lebanon last May, are now working to orchestrate a rapprochement between Syria,
Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who meet King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia last
weekend in Jeddah, told the Qataris he does not mind mending relations with
Damascus, but wants first to see a soothing of tension between the Syrians and
Riyadh.
Tension between Damascus and Cairo, after all, had stemmed from sour relations
between the Syrians and Riyadh, with regard to Lebanon, and led to the no-show
of both Mubarak and Abdullah at the Arab summit in Damascus held in March. Both
countries accused the Syrians of prolonging the presidential crisis in Beirut
and preventing the election of Michel Suleiman as president. That is now
history.
The prime minister of Qatar, Hamad Bin Jassem al-Thani, recently visited
Riyadh, while Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifeh al-Thani visited Damascus, carrying a
positive message from the Syrians. President Bashar al-Assad's visit to the
United Arab Emirates (UAE), and then to Kuwait, is also a step towards
rapprochement with the Saudis, and there is talk in Damascus of an upcoming
summit in Doha to bring together presidents Assad and Mubarak, Sheikh Hamad and
King Abdullah.
From Abu Dhabi in the UAE, Assad said that he was going to visit other Arab
capitals, including Riyadh. Additionally, Assad has shown readiness to
establish diplomatic relations with Lebanon, something that has never existed
in the bilateral relations of both countries and which has been a common demand
from Lebanese politicians since the withdrawal of Syrian troops in April 2005.
This Syrian "carrot" was expressed by the new Lebanese president in a meeting
with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Beirut, shortly after
he said that he was going to work "for the best of possible relations" with
Syria. For their part, if the Syrians do so, they are expecting two things in
return: a silencing of the anti-Syrian tone in the Lebanese media (mainly
Future TV), and a visit by Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora to Damascus.
Speaking to journalists in Abu Dhabi, Assad said he was willing to work "with
any nationalist government in Lebanon".
At first glance, this may seem solely related to the Lebanon crisis, now that
both the pro-Syrian opposition and the anti-Syrian March 14 Coalition have set
aside their differences, elected a president, and are discussing a new cabinet,
which is likely to be created (with Syria's blessing) by June 6. All parties
finally accepted that Syria remains an all-powerful broker in Lebanese affairs,
and can neither be weakened, nor sidelined, from the Lebanon portfolio.
After all, the Doha agreement came out with resolutions that perfectly fit
Syria's vision for Lebanon. Cabinet representation for the Hezbollah-led
opposition was expanded. The opposition now has a veto power to down any
legislation that is not in the favor of Syria or Hezbollah (mainly related to
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 regarding the arms of
Hezbollah) or the Hariri Tribunal investigating the assassination of former
Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri in 2005.
A pro-Syrian candidate, Michel Suleiman, has been elected president - rather
than a member of March 14 or Michel Aoun (who although currently neutral with
regard to Syria, was nevertheless one of the loudest anti-Syrian voices in the
1990s). The French realized how influential the Syrians still were in Lebanon,
thanks to their allies, and President Nicolas Sarkozy telephoned Assad to thank
him for Syria's efforts in the Doha agreement.
It is still possible that after visiting Beirut on June 7, where he will meet
Suleiman and both Michel Aoun and a senior delegation from Hezbollah, Sarkozy
might head to Damascus to meet with Assad. Or some are even talking of a visit
by Assad to Paris in late June.
This would be the first meeting between the men, and a giant step forward in
Syrian-French relations, which also soured after the assassination of Hariri.
Juan Carlos, the king of Spain, also recently contacted the Syrian president to
thank him for the deal hammered out in Qatar. All of this came as several
European politicians visited Damascus in 2007-2008, including European Union
chief foreign policy negotiator Javier Solana, trying to get the Syrians to
cooperate on Lebanon. Solana even offered Damascus a basket of incentives,
including signing of the EU Partnership Agreement, in reward for ending the
stalemate in Beirut.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mouallem was recently invited to attend the
inauguration of Suleiman, and according to the Central News Agency, Assad is
expected to visit Beirut to congratulate Suleiman by the end of June. Although
Baabda Palace in Beirut denied this report, sources in Beirut confirmed it was
being discussed between Damascus and Beirut, but denied for reasons related to
Assad's security in Lebanon.
A closer look at Syria's rapprochement with "moderate" Arab states, that are
pro-Western, is seen as a stepping stone for dialogue between Damascus and
Washington. It comes after Syria announced in late May that it had started
indirect talks with Israel, via Turkish mediation. Depending on how one wants
to see it, it is also a step away from Tehran. The Iranians are not pleased at
the Syrian-Israeli talks, fearing that if they materialize, they will lead to a
break between Syria and Iran on one front, and Syria and Hezbollah on another.
The Syrians have repeatedly stressed that they will not abandon their allies if
peace is signed with Israel, but in effect, if peace does materialize, it would
be very difficult, if not impossible, for the Syrians to continue supporting
Hezbollah or Hamas. The Iranians know that well. In the mid-1990s, they were
not impressed when Syria went into direct talks with Israel, under the auspices
of the Bill Clinton White House. They were equally enraged in April 2007, when
Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House, came to Damascus carrying a message
from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert or when, one month later, Mouallem met
with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Sharm al-Sheikh in Egypt.
They were enraged when Syria went to the Annapolis Middle East peace conference
last year in the US, and Syria - despite its friendship with Tehran - made
things loud and clear: in as much as we value the alliance, we do not take our
orders from Tehran. We are allies, working together in a variety of political
and economic issues, but Iran is not Syria's only ally.
The Syrians are making a point loud and clear: we have the Qataris. We have the
Turks. And in a few months time, we will have the Americans as well, once the
George W Bush team leaves the White House. Syria has sent messages to the
Americans by keeping stronger control on the Syrian-Iraqi border. That has been
noted in Washington. They then went to Annapolis, despite Iranian anger, which
was also well received in the US.
That might explain why the US has not vetoed (nor has it encouraged) the
Syrian-Israeli talks via Turkey. Neutrality is a step forward, the Syrians
believe, since previously the Americans had curtly refused any kinds of talks
between Syria and Israel.
Bush said in December 2003 that "Syria is a very weak country that just has to
wait" for all regional issues to be solved before conducting a peace deal with
Israel. For years, the American argument has been that Syria is more interested
in a peace process with Israel, than a peace deal aimed only at ending the
isolation imposed on Damascus by Washington since 2003.
In 2007, the Syrians were treated like royalty at the Riyadh summit, and King
Abdullah made a point of staying at arm's length from both Siniora and
ex-president Emille Lahhoud. During this summit, it was decided that the 2008
conference would be held in Damascus (a positive gesture towards Assad, since
no summit had been held in Damascus since the Arab League was founded during
World War II).
The Saudi behavior was the brainchild of King Abdullah, who felt that the only
reason to bring Syria back into the "moderate" Arab family, and away from Iran,
would be to treat the Syrians well and make them feel welcome and secure in the
Arab community. The Saudi king reasoned that Syria had cuddled up to Iran only
when the Arab states all rallied behind the US after 2003. The purpose of this
behavior, he believed, was not to break the Syrian-Iranian alliance. On the
contrary, it should remain strong because this gives the Arab states a
back-channel to Tehran.
Syria is a reasonable country that can be talked to. Syria does not have a
history of anti-Americanism, nor does it threaten Arab states in the Gulf.
Syria can be used to moderate Iranian behavior, just like Egypt was used by the
Soviets to "moderate" Syrian behavior in the 1960s. Last week, when speaking to
journalists in the UAE, Assad added - bringing smiles to Arab capitals -
"Syria's relationship with Iran cannot be at the expense of the Arabs." When
asked what Syria would do in case a US-Iranian war broke out, he replied,
"Syria does not intend to go to war."
What failed in 2007 might, after Doha, be achieved today, signaling a rebirth
in Syrian-Arab relations.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
