DAMASCUS - The Western media virtually stopped covering events in Lebanon after
Lebanese leaders signed the Doha agreement that led to the election of Michel
Suleiman as president in May. It seemed like a fairytale come true, in which
after years of war and blood everybody made up and lived happily ever after.
But that is not how things operate in the real world; certainly not in Lebanon.
At the Doha conference, it was decided that all parties would immediately elect
army commander Suleiman. That has been done. It was decided that the sit-in
staged by the Hezbollah-led
opposition in downtown Beirut for 18 months would come to an end. That also has
happened.
All parties decided to refrain from using arms - under any circumstances - in
Beirut. That has not happened and there have been almost daily reports on
shootings, quarrels - and deaths - coming out of the Lebanese capital.
One of the most recent was a report of an attack on a partisan of the Future
Movement of parliamentary majority leader Saad al-Hariri, in Bir Hasan, a
neighborhood near the Kuwaiti Embassy in the capital. He was badly injured by
armed men dressed in parliamentary police uniform, ostensibly loyal to
parliament speaker and opposition leader Nabih Berri.
Then three people were wounded in a clash between pro-Hezbollah and pro-Hariri
people in the Bekka Valley, close to the border with Syria. In addition to the
sniping - and armed men roaming the streets at night, looking for trouble -
several attacks have been recorded against the Lebanese army.
Shaker al-Abbsi, the mastermind who led the war against the army in May and
June last year in the northern village of Naher al-Bared, issued a statement
this week (similar to ones issued by Osama Bin Laden), accusing Sunni leaders
of Lebanon (in reference to Hariri) of treason and of receiving funds from the
US government. He then opened fire on Shi'ite Hezbollah, accusing it of
terrorizing Sunni districts in Lebanon in the battle that erupted on May 7 this
year.
He said, "The objective of Saad [Hariri], [Hezbollah leader Hasan] Nasrallah,
and [Palestinian President Mahmud] Abbas is to humiliate the people. One is
taking orders from [US President George W] Bush, and the other from the devil's
verses in Teheran." He said the time was ripe for "vengeance" in Lebanon.
Additionally, the media war between opposing camps has not ended, with
Hezbollah's al-Manar TV and Hariri's Future TV spreading nothing but venom
against each other.
The only positive development - apart from the election of Suleiman - has been
the June 7 visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy to Beirut. In addition to
meeting his new Lebanese counterpart, Sarkozy met with over 80 politicians,
including senior members of Hezbollah, to devise a Franco-Lebanese strategy for
the country's future.
By meeting with Nasrallah's envoy over lunch, Sarkozy was making himself heard
in Washington, effectively saying: "We will do what it takes to get Lebanon up
and running. US concerns over the background and agenda of Hezbollah do not
concern us. We will do what we believe is in France's best interests in the
Middle East."
Earlier, Sarkozy had snubbed the Americans when he invited a delegation from
Hezbollah to Paris for round-table talks held with Foreign Minister Bernard
Kouchner. When hostilities broke out in Beirut in mid-May, Sarkozy issued a
statement calling for dialogue, falling short of condemning either Hezbollah or
Syria.
One Lebanese, admiring Sarkozy's persistence, commented, "When [former
Palestinian leader] Yasser Arafat was doing the hajj [pilgrimage] to
Mecca, he refused to strike at [the manifestation] of the devil [as done by
Muslim pilgrims during a haj ritual]. Arafat argued, 'Why should I
strike at the devil; I may need him one day, for Palestine'. And this is how
pragmatically Sarkozy is dealing with the Lebanon file, refusing to strike at
anybody - despite American pressure - because he needs all parties to bring
peace to Lebanon."
In addition to cuddling up to Hezbollah, Sarkozy made several overtures towards
Syria. The first was to invite President Bashar al-Assad to visit Paris to
attend a Mediterranean conference on July 13. "The Syrian president, whom I
contacted by telephone, expressed his desire to participate. I think that his
presence is most likely," said the French leader from Paris at a press
conference with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi before arriving in
Beirut.
If it materializes, this would be Assad's first trip to Europe since relations
soured, under pressure from the United States, in 2005. Then in an interview
published in three Lebanese dailies on June 6, Sarkozy said his country would
"resume contacts with Syria only when positive, concrete developments occurred
in Lebanon, with a view to getting out of the crisis". He added, "One has to
concede that the Doha accord, the election of President Suleiman and the return
of Fouad Siniora as prime minister are such developments." He wrapped up by
saying, "I have drawn the conclusions and I have called Assad to tell him of my
desire to see the implementation of the accord continue."
Sources close to his office told reporters in Beirut that Sarkozy will send two
envoys to Damascus, Jean-David Levitte, a presidential advisor, and Claude
Gueant, the office's secretary general, to help turn a new page in
Franco-Syrian relations. The source added, "Everything depends on how things
develop, whether at the level of a Syrian embassy being opened in Beirut or
respect for civil peace in Lebanon."
For their part, the Syrians (who refused to comment to these press leaks) have
welcomed the messages coming from Paris. They have expressed, according to
Suleiman, their readiness to exchange diplomatic relations with Lebanon for the
first time since the two countries were separated by France in 1920. Syria has
also stressed it will soon appoint an ambassador to Paris (through the
pro-government daily al-Watan newspaper) a post that has been vacant since
2006, when relations soured under ex-president Jacques Chirac.
A Syrian source added, "It is also not unlikely that we resume [with the
French] talks over the Syria-European Union partnership agreement, while France
chairs the EU as of next month." That agreement was signed preliminary in 2004
and then ratified by the EU parliament, but it was then called off after the
assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri in 2005, under pressure
from Paris and the United States.
As part of the economic rapprochement between the two countries, a French firm
has been granted a license to build two large cement factories in Syria, for
US$1.2 billion. This could lead to the Syrians granting France the right to
construct their metro system, a tender that had previously been earmarked for
either Iran or India.
Meanwhile, the Americans frowned at the sweet talk being exchanged between
Damascus and Paris, especially after three phone calls between Sarkozy and
Syria's Assad. "France and the United States share the same wish for peace and
stability in the region," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack,
noting, "Washington will ask Paris for clarification." He added, "At the same
time, the United States has serious concerns over the Syrian government's
behavior."
Making things worse is that the Lebanese have failed - nearly 20 days after
Suleiman's election, on creating a new cabinet. Shortly after everybody
returned from Doha, it was decided that Siniora, the March 14 party
heavyweight, would be called in to form another cabinet. Bringing him down (and
preventing him from creating another cabinet) was one of the pillars of the
Hezbollah-led opposition's program.
They accused him of dividing Lebanon, showing favoritism towards pro-Hariri
Sunnis, and of selling out to the Americans and the Saudis. Hezbollah had
launched a loud war against him after the summer war of 2006, saying that he
and his team had called on Israel, via the Americans, to prolong its war on
Lebanon, hoping that this would crush Hezbollah. It was a sharp slap in the
face for the opposition to see him being called in for another round at the
premiership - but by commanding a parliamentary majority he had the
constitutional right to do so, and in the spirit of the Doha agreement they let
it pass.
The second stumbling bloc came with regard to the makeup of the Siniora
cabinet. According to the Doha deal, the prime minister would preside over a
30-man cabinet. Sixteen of its seats would be held by the pro-Western majority,
known as March 14. And 11 would be held by the Hezbollah-led opposition, giving
it veto power within the cabinet to drown any legislation related to the
inquiry into Hariri's death or regarding the arms of Hezbollah. The final three
seats would be named by the president.
It has now been decided that the three seats will be Defense and Interior, to
be filled by a Maronite and a Greek Orthodox, and the third seat will be for a
Catholic as a minister of state with no portfolio.
The two Shi'ite parties, Amal and Hezbollah, will get five seats, including
minister of foreign affairs, and they will be named by speaker Nabih Berri. The
rest of the opposition's six portfolios would be divided between Sunni, Druze
and Christian forces allied to Hezbollah and Amal.
The March 14 coalition gets the Ministry of Finance (traditionally held by
Siniora) along with services-related cabinets, like Telecommunications.
Opposition leader and presidential hopeful Michel Aoun - who was never too
pleased with the Doha agreement because it denied him his last chance at
becoming president - supposedly gets two of the five Maronite seats in the
Siniora cabinet. He has his eyes set on everybody else's ration; that of the
Shi'ites, Sunnis and fellow Christians. He is demanding the Ministry of Finance
"to see why they [the Hariri team] have monopolized it for so long". He is also
demanding the Ministry of Health, although it is earmarked for his ally Nabih
Berri.
Whenever confronted by friends or allies, he tells the press, "They cannot form
the cabinet without us [the Free Patriotic Movement] and if they want to try,
let them." He always adds, "We are in a hurry, we want the cabinet formed. it
can be formed in a week's time."
Another problem is confessional - rather than political - representation. One
of the conditions of the Doha agreement is that no party walk out on the
cabinet under any circumstances. In 2006, Amal and Hezbollah resigned from the
Siniora cabinet, and immediately labeled it unconstitutional because it no
longer included any Shi'ites. This time, the March 14 coalition gets to name a
Shi'ite, so if Hezbollah walks away, there would still be Shi'ite
representation. In return, Hezbollah gets to name a Sunni. March 14, to date,
has been uneasy with Hezbollah naming Sunni ministers in the cabinet.
Suleiman, the new president, is upset that his era is off to a rough start,
thanks to the bickering of politicians. So is the Maronite patriarch, Mar
Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir. This week, sources close to Siniora mapped out their
own version of the cabinet - without naming ministers - and put forward a draft
cabinet, which was immediately and flatly rejected by Hezbollah and Michel
Aoun.
The euphoria following the Doha agreement is fast dissipating.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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