JERUSALEM - Israeli defense experts were not surprised by a New York Times
report over the weekend that the Israeli air force had recently conducted what
appeared to be a rehearsal for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Israel, the experts say, has never taken the military option off the table and
they therefore expect the air force to be training for a strike in Iran. "It is
logical that the army is training for an Iranian mission," says Efraim Inbar,
head of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies near Tel Aviv. "We are
preparing for it. The air force is in charge of this file."
Over 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighter jets, as well as helicopters and
refueling tankers, took part in the exercise over the eastern
Mediterranean and Greece in early June, according to the New York Times.
Quoting unnamed US officials, the report said that the helicopters and tankers
covered 1,400 kilometers, approximately the distance between Israel and Iran's
uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz.
The report quotes an unnamed Pentagon official saying that the exercise was
also meant to send a message. The Israelis, the official told The Times,
"wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the
Iranians to know. There's a lot of signaling going on at different levels."
The Israeli army did not deny the report, saying only in a statement that the
air force "regularly trains for various missions in order to confront and meet
the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel".
The use of F-16s and F-15s is also consistent with an exercise of this nature
as both are long-range warplanes that would be used if Israel was to launch a
strike against Iran. Inbar told Inter Press Service that he was "sure" the army
is preparing for a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities and that it was
"just a question of whether there is a political decision to go ahead with it
or not".
When asked whether Israel would launch a strike against Iran, Israeli leaders
have generally tended to be vague, saying only that "all options" are on the
table. Former air force chief Eitan Ben-Eliyahu says he is sure the military is
rehearsing for a possible operation. "There is no military option without
training for a military option," he said this week on Israel TV's Channel One.
Ben-Eliyahu said he saw the leaking of the story as part of the diplomatic
efforts aimed at deterring Iran from pursuing its nuclear aspirations. "These
exercises have to be conducted because they are also part of the diplomatic
process," he said. "Exposing your cards strengthens the diplomatic option. And
there is no diplomacy without there being military backing for it."
In the most strident comments yet by an Israeli leader on the Iran issue,
Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, who is a former chief of staff and a former
defense minister, said this month that Israel "will attack" if Iran did not
suspend its nuclear program. "Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear
plans, will be unavoidable," he said in an interview. Both Israel and the US
believe Iran is bent on developing nuclear weapons, but Tehran insists its
nuclear program is civilian in nature.
Political leaders in Israel were highly critical of Mofaz, who views himself as
a potential successor to embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. They accused him
of exploiting a highly sensitive strategic problem facing Israel in a bid to
paint himself as a tough leader. Israeli officials tried to play down the
comments, reportedly telling their US colleagues that they did not reflect
government policy.
Since last December, when US intelligence agencies issued a National
Intelligence Estimate asserting that in 2003 Iran halted work on nuclear
weapons design, the prevailing view in Israel has been that US President George
W Bush will not resort to force in trying to stop Tehran from going nuclear.
(The report did also say it could not be determined whether the work had been
resumed.)
Many experts believe that Israel will not - or cannot - go it alone in
attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran has spread its nuclear installations
across the country and has also built them deep underground and behind
reinforced concrete walls, making it difficult to accurately target them.
Israel, these experts contend, does not have the ability to carry out the type
of sustained attack against multiple, well-protected targets that would be
required to neutralize - or even badly damage - Iran's nuclear program.
But Israel has gone it alone in the past when it suspected an Arab state was
developing nuclear weapons. Israeli planes flew all the way to Iraq in 1981 and
destroyed a nuclear plant built by Saddam Hussein at Osirak. Last September,
Israeli planes destroyed an installation in Syria that US intelligence
officials later said was a nuclear reactor that had been built with the aid of
North Korea.
Listening to a somewhat cryptic Ben-Eliyahu, it doesn't sound like the
difficulties Israel would face in striking Iran's nuclear installations have
stopped the army from training to do just that. "There is only a military
option if you are training for it," he said.
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