Consulate attack exposes Turkey's frailty
By Patrick Wrigley
ISTANBUL - A wave of tumultuous events in Turkey, including the unprecedented
arrests of high-ranking members of the military on suspicion of staging a coup
and culminating with a deadly attack on Wednesday at the US consulate in
Istanbul, all point to a deepening state of political turmoil.
A case seeking to shut down the ruling Islamist-influenced Justice and
Development Party (AKP), on the grounds of anti-secularism, is being heard by
the constitutional court - gripping the Turkish public with conspiracy and
intrigue. Many commentators believe such instability created an opportune
moment for the terrorist attack; others believe there is a direct link between
this incident
and the ongoing battle between the AKP and its secular-minded opponents.
Six people died and two others were injured when three gunmen opened fire on
policemen guarding the US consulate in Istanbul. The attack, which occurred at
11am local time, claimed the lives of three policemen and the three assailants.
Another policemen and a civilian were also injured.
An eyewitness, Vacide Doster, who was waiting to get a visa from the consulate,
told Asia Times Online he saw three bearded men carrying guns get out of a car
parked near the consulate before opening fire on the policemen guarding the
entrance to the compound. The fire fight, which lasted five minutes, according
to Doster, did not enter the perimeter of the compound and no consular staff
were injured.
While the consulate remained cordoned off all afternoon and a helicopter
circled the area, the governor of Istanbul, Muammer Guler, told a press
conference that as the evidence continued to pour in, he was unwilling to
speculate on the motives and affiliations of the perpetrators. By the evening
the police were still searching for the driver of the car that dropped off the
assailants.
Turkey is no stranger to terrorist attacks. With the outlawed Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK) still active in eastern Turkey, the country is familiar
with explosions in the urban centers of the east. Police and security services
have also foiled several plots in the past two years. On the sixth anniversary
of September 11, 2001, last year, police found several hundred kilograms of
explosives in a parked van in the capital Ankara. The last significant attack
on foreign interests in the country occurred in November 2003 when 58 people
died in a series of bombings carried out by Islamist militants against the
British consulate, HSBC bank and two synagogues in Istanbul.
The US ambassador to Turkey, Ross Wilson, condemned Wednesday's gunbattle as "a
cowardly and dastardly attack" and "an obvious act of terrorism". Although the
Turkish public has a reputation of being staunchly anti-American, the
relationship seemed to have been improving over the past few years.
According to a survey carried out in 2005 by the International Strategic
Research Organization based in Ankara, only 16% of Turks define themselves as
anti-American and 74% consider the US an ally of Turkey. According to the
survey, Turks perceived the presence of military camps of the PKK in northern
Iraq as the biggest impediment to closer US-Turkish relations. This issue has
been smoothed in 2008 by US co-operation over Turkey's incursions into northern
Iraq in search of PKK fighters.
Local media have reported that the gunmen were suspected al-Qaeda members.
However, a number of other organizations are seen as viable suspects, including
the PKK, Lebanon's Shi'ite Hezbollah and the Great Eastern Islamic Raiders'
Front, a Turkish Islamic terrorist organization. A prominent political
commentator, Yusuf Kanli, is circumspect, arguing, "I am not sure if it's an
attack aimed at the consulate or the police in front of the building."
But, Kanli was clear about one thing. "Whatever the causes and whatever the
message they are trying to give, this is a terrorist attack as a result of the
unstable atmosphere in the country." Although this incident was largely
unexpected, many commentators with access to the corridors of power in Ankara
had privately expressed fears about such an attack.
Rumors have already begun to circulate that the hand of Ergenekon is at play.
This is a shadowy group comprising members of the military, the judiciary,
journalists and lawyers. It has been charged with planning to foment unrest in
the lead-up to a military coup set for 2009, and has been written about heavily
in the Turkish media over the past week. For the first time in the republic's
history, members of the higher echelons of the military were arrested over the
weekend as part of investigations.
The AKP argues that it is finally taking on the "deep state" - an informal
alliance of members of the military, the police force and the intelligence
agencies working outside the normal democratic and judicial channels of the
state. This cabal has often been accused of responsibility for the
assassination of prominent journalists and writers as well as missionaries and
leftists. Opponents, however, believe the government is simply trying to
silence its opponents and strengthen its bargaining position in anticipation of
its own closure case.
Kanli scoffs at suggestions that the latest attack could be linked to
Ergenekon. "How could it be?" he asks, "Everyone is trying to pin everything on
Ergenekon." Hakan Yavuz, associate professor of political science at the
University of Utah, agrees, "Ergenekon is being used as a big framework to put
anything in. It is being used to create a confrontation between elements of the
state and the AKP."
Analysts believe these investigations and the country's political atrophy are
having dire consequences. With the public polarized and gripped by
conspiracies, such issues leave Turkey vulnerable. The latest attack in
Istanbul has made this abundantly clear.
Patrick Wrigley is a freelance journalist based in Istanbul. He writes
extensively on Turkey and the Middle East.
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