The July 9 attack on the United States consulate in Istanbul refocused
international attention on al-Qaeda's Turkish branch. Three attackers and three
police officers died in the ensuing gun battle. Unlike al-Qaeda's trademark
bomb attacks, this assault took the form of a gun battle. If it was indeed
carried out by al-Qaeda, it would have been a rare instance of the organization
engaging in a gun battle outside of the "jihad zones" of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Investigators identified the assailants as Erkan Kargin, Bulent Cinar and Raif
Topcil. Cinar has a criminal record for theft and Kargin for swindling. It has
been determined that Kargin traveled from a border province, Agri, to Iran in
September 2006 and then re-entered Turkey through Ataturk International Airport
in May 2007. Police confirmed that Kargin hitchhiked his way to
Afghanistan during his absence and received training there in Salafist ideology
and terrorism methods.
As part of its strategic thinking, al-Qaeda has formed various coalitions in
the Muslim world to organize its bases and carry out attacks in a range of
countries. The Turkish press, on various occasions, have reported that
al-Qaeda's Turkish branch formed institutional ties with the radical Great
Eastern Islamic Raiders' Front (Islami Buyukdogu Akincilar Cephesi - IBDA-C)
and recruits former or active militants from the Turkish Hezbollah. For
instance, in its devastating synagogue bombing in 2003, one of the al-Qaeda
attackers was a former Hezbollah member. Following the bombing, the Turkish
press reported that an anonymous person made a phone call to the state-owned
news agency Anadolu Ajansi and claimed the attack was a joint operation of
IBDA-C and al-Qaeda.
Police believe that the attack on the US consulate is a joint effort of IBDA-C
and al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda documents were reportedly found in the assailants'
residences in Istanbul. In an interview with the weekly magazine Aktuel,
Saadetin Ustaosmanoglu, editor of the IBDA-C Furkan magazine, said, "People
should be surprised if a Muslim who lives in a remote corner of the world and
Muslims who live here do not cooperate. When it comes to IBDA-C-al-Qaeda
relations, I neither accept nor deny it."
If the US consulate attack was indeed a joint project of IBDA-C and al-Qaeda,
what was the reason behind the attack? Why was the attack carried out as a gun
battle, not as a suicide bombing?
Turkish dailies reported that the reason behind the attack could be "revenge"
for the death of a friend of attack leader Erkan Kargin. Kargin's friend, Abdul
Fettah, a Turkish al-Qaeda member, was killed by US troops while fighting in
Afghanistan five days before the consulate attack. The liberal daily Taraf also
claimed that the attack was planned to take revenge for a January operation by
the Turkish police against al-Qaeda in Antep province. The police operation in
Antep ended with a gun battle in which a police officer lost his life and five
others were wounded, while two al-Qaeda members were killed and 18 others
detained. Baran magazine, an IBDA-C publication, claimed that the operation
against al-Qaeda in Antep was planned by the US and carried out by the Turkish
police.
The Turkish media's claim that revenge was a motive in the assault appears to
contradict the nature of carefully planned al-Qaeda attacks. A friend of Erkan
Kargin told the police that Kargin was forming a group in a mosque outside
state control and asked him to join. One day Kargin said that he was planning
to attack the US consulate and take some hostages there. In addition, Kargin
said he had examined the place where the consulate was located and made a plan
to occupy the building. Two hand-drawn sketches of the consulate were found by
police in one of the attackers' homes.
Interior Minister Besir Atalay announced that the assault was a suicide attack,
but some local terrorism analysts argued that the attack was intended to be a
"hit-and-run" operation, claiming that assailants did not calculate the
presence of traffic police officers who were in the area at the time and joined
the gun battle when they saw terrorists attacking their colleagues guarding the
US consulate.
When the attack is analyzed closely, however, it seems that neither the
interior minister nor the terrorism experts are right in their claims. If it
was a suicide attack, one might have expected the use of explosives. If it was
a hit-and-run attack, the attackers appear to have exposed themselves
needlessly in a futile assault. The site of the gun battle is located at the
bottom of a valley with many buildings. If they had considered a hit-and-run
attack, the assailants could have easily hidden in one of those buildings,
firing on the consulate and escaping from there.
The plan, however, appears to have been to occupy the consulate, taking several
hostages on behalf of al-Qaeda. Although it escaped the notice of much of the
Turkish press, a terrorism expert of the Turkish police mentioned that the
police "are working on the possibility of whether the attack was planned to
occupy the consulate ... The terrorists preferred to attack against the busiest
entrance of the consulate where civilians enter for visa applications. The
terrorists could plan to create panic by killing the police officer at the door
and sneak into the consulate during the panic. However, when the traffic police
joined the gun battle they could not carry out what they planned to do."
The material found on the dead terrorists, such as a Koran and what police
described as "Arabic-scripted fabrics", suggest that Kargin's group was
planning to occupy the consulate. During the occupation, the terrorists may
have wanted to use this material as a propaganda tool. It is not common for
al-Qaeda militants to carry such material on their way to an attack because it
could endanger the entire operation if one of the attackers is stopped by a
random police search on the street and such material is discovered. Although no
further details on the "fabrics" are available, it is possible the attackers
had planned to display this material in the windows of an occupied consulate.
The Turkish interior minister's hasty press release declaring the incident a
suicide attack suggests that the authorities may be aware of the aim of the
attack. It might indeed have been an attempt to occupy the consulate to take
hostages, but authorities probably did not reveal these aspects because it
might have inspired other terrorists around the world to plan similar attacks.
If it was not an attempt to occupy the consulate, it needs to be explained why
an individual trained in terrorist methods in Afghanistan would lead such a
high-risk but ultimately ineffectual operation.
Assuming that it was an attempt to occupy the strongly defended US consulate,
the attack would have been a grave embarrassment for US and Turkish security
institutions if successful. A Turkish counter-terrorism expert specializing in
al-Qaeda suggests that "as long as there is an American consulate it is a
target to al-Qaeda". Since there is no way to drive a truck loaded with
explosives into the consulate, it seems likely that the leader of the cell,
Erkan Kargin, planned to occupy the consulate to humiliate the US and Turkey.
Thanks to random police officers who happened to be at the scene and had the
courage to join the gun battle, the attackers failed to carry out their
assault.
Although it failed, the attack at least has the potential to inspire al-Qaeda
operatives or home-grown terrorists to attempt the occupation of foreign
embassies and consulates around the world.
Emrullah Uslu is a Turkish terrorism expert and currently a PhD candidate
at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Utah. He worked
as a policy analyst for the Turkish National Police's counter-terrorism
headquarters for more than six years.
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