JERUSALEM - The announcement on Wednesday evening by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
that he will resign as soon as his ruling Kadima party has chosen a new leader
in mid-September did not shock Israel's political establishment, but it did
crystallize the political timetable: Israel will either have a new prime
minister by early November or Israelis will be back at the polls for a general
election in the first few months of next year.
Beset by corruption allegations, Olmert has been under growing pressure in
recent months to stand down and he finally succumbed on Wednesday, announcing
at a surprise press conference at his official Jerusalem residence that he
would not
run in the Kadima leadership primaries to be held September 17.
"Once the party has chosen a new leader, I will resign from my post as prime
minister to enable them to put together a new government quickly and
efficiently," he said.
Olmert has never fully recovered from the Lebanon war two years ago, when he
launched a fierce military campaign against Hezbollah after the Shi'ite group
abducted two Israeli soldiers and killed three more during a cross-border raid
on the Lebanon-Israel border. A government report severely criticized his
handling of the war, and his public approval ratings have only occasionally
climbed above 20% since.
When US businessman Morris Talansky told a Jerusalem court in May that he had
given Olmert some US$150,000 in cash to cover, among other things, personal
expenses, it was clear Olmert would not see his term through to November 2010,
when the next election is scheduled.
His situation became even more tenuous when fresh allegations emerged a few
weeks ago, this time accusing him of submitting duplicate claims for travel
expenses to charities that had sponsored his trips abroad. Olmert has denied
all of the allegations, which relate to the period before he became prime
minister, and had initially said he would only resign if indicted.
In his address, broadcast live on all three main TV channels, he said he had
become the target of a "slander campaign", which he intimated was being
conducted by the police and the state prosecution. He said he had found himself
"subject to a wave of investigations, examinations and criticism immediately
after being elected".
Zevulun Orlev, leader of the opposition, right-wing National Religious Party,
is unforgiving. "Olmert has hardly been a beacon of honesty," he told Inter
Press Service (IPS). "If he said 'good morning' to me, I wouldn't believe it
was morning until I went to the window to check."
After the court appearance by Talansky, Labor Party leader Ehud Barak told the
prime minister that if he did not allow Kadima to hold a leadership primary, he
would precipitate an early election. Left with little choice, Olmert agreed and
this week Kadima set September 17 as the date for the leadership vote.
Once the ruling party has a new leader, the president will then ask the member
of parliament with the greatest chance of forming a government - most likely
Kadima's new leader - to do so. They then have a maximum of six weeks to try
and construct a new coalition. If they fail, a general election will be held
within 90 days.
It is not altogether unfeasible that Olmert could still occupy the prime
minister's office for another six months, since he will remain at the head of a
transitional government from the moment he resigns until a new government is
formed.
In his address on Wednesday, Olmert said he believed there was "a broad public
foundation" for a new Kadima-led government and that he expected one to be
formed "within a short time".
But with the key parties in any future coalition holding divergent views on the
peace process and also having conflicting budgetary demands, there is no
guarantee that the new leader of Kadima will succeed. The ultra-religious Shas
party wants the government to reinstate huge sums in child allowances that were
canceled by the previous government under Ariel Sharon, but the Labor party
strongly opposes such a move. And, whereas Labor enthusiastically supports
peace moves, Shas opposes major concessions to the Palestinians and the
Syrians.
"There is certainly a chance of putting together a coalition," Kadima lawmaker
Otniel Schneller, who has been a strong supporter of Olmert, told IPS. "The big
question is whether we will be able to get the budget passed. With the world
economy struggling, we will have to keep the budget tight and so it will depend
on whether a party like Shas understands this. The word 'child allowances' is
just a word. You can always call it something else."
Orlev is predictably more skeptical. "The chance of a new government being
formed is very low," he told IPS. "The smell of elections is in the air and so
when it comes to the coalition negotiations no party will want to be seen to be
compromising. That's because they know elections could be just around the
corner and they might not be judged so kindly by their voters if they do."
With Olmert having set a date for his resignation, attention will now switch to
the leadership battle within Kadima, which is already shaping up as a two-horse
race. The current front-runner is Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, but Transport
Minister Shaul Mofaz is mounting a serious challenge.
Livni is popular among the general public, who view her as measured,
responsible and as a model of clean, corruption-free politics. Mofaz will try
to play up his military past - he is a former army chief and a former defense
minister.
While Livni will tell Kadima members that she has the best chance of winning a
general election - polls show her garnering more seats than a Mofaz-led Kadima
in an election - Mofaz will tell them that he has a better chance of cobbling
together a new governing coalition, in part because of his more hawkish views
on the peace process.
With former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who heads the center-right
opposition Likud party, holding a clear lead in opinion surveys, Kadima members
are not keen to rush to the polls, and Mofaz's message could prove persuasive.
"Livni will put the peace process at the forefront," says Schneller. "She will
say that we have to move forward on this front and that we have to go to the
people [in an election] and win their support."
Mofaz, he says, will focus on security concerns, especially the threats posed
by Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. "He will say he can form a
broad government and that with Israel facing serious security issues, now is
not the time for elections."
Olmert said on Wednesday he would continue to push forward in negotiations with
the Palestinians and with indirect talks Israel has been conducting with Syria.
"As long as I remain at my post I will not stop trying to continue to bring the
negotiations between us and our neighbors to a successful conclusion," he said.
Orlev is incensed. "Olmert has no right to continue conducting negotiations,"
he said. "He has lost the support of parliament and of the people. He no longer
has legitimacy."
Orlev need not be overly concerned. With Olmert having announced his
resignation, any significant progress in talks with the Palestinians or the
Syrians is now highly unlikely.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
