Page 1 of 2 Syria exploits US loopholes
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - When veteran United States diplomat Edward Djerejian received notice
that he had become America's ambassador to Syria in 1989, he happened to be in
Israel. He informed prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who said, "You will be
dealing with the smartest man in the Middle East [in reference to president
Hafez al-Assad]." Rabin then warned against what he called a "loophole" in what
the Americans were offering to Syria, because if there were any loophole,
"Hafez al-Assad will drive a truck through it."
Those were smart words from the Israeli premier and they still apply to the
Middle East of 2008. The American loopholes still
stand, and President Bashar
al-Assad has driven a truck through them.
Loophole 1: Iraq
In 2003, the Americans believed they could bring stability to Iraq with the
help of their Shi'ite allies within Iraq and the support of Saudi Arabia. They
thought this could be done while ignoring both Iran and Syria.
That was a fatal mistake, as bluntly spelled out in the Baker-Hamilton report
in 2006. James Baker, a former secretary of state and Lee Hamilton, a former US
Representative headed the Iraq Study Group, a 10-person bipartisan panel
appointed by the US Congress to assess the situation in Iraq.
While Iran controls Iraqi Shi'ites, Syria is very well connected to the Sunni
community, including tribal leaders and Ba'athists. Although it cannot order
either of them to lay down their arms, it can moderate their behavior
peacefully, through dialogue, or aggressively, by threatening, for example, to
return many busloads of Iraqis to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Iraq.
Most of the 1.5 million Iraqis in Syria are Sunnis. Maliki doesn't want them
back, and the Americans fear if they return they will contribute, as members or
bankrollers, to the Sunni insurgency.
Some would be arrested for their positions in the former Ba'athist regime of
Saddam Hussein. Others would go back to a life of unemployment. Many would be
killed by nature or in the sectarian violence that still simmers.
The Americans thought it was wise to have these 1.5 million refugees in Syria,
to let the Syrians deal with them. This massive refugee problem had an opposite
effect; it gave the Syrians a bargaining card - at a heavy price nevertheless -
that the George W Bush administration feared.
Currently, the US still refuses to provide anything but lip service gratitude
to the Syrians for housing these Iraqis, withholding any kind of financial
assistance to help Damascus.
Five years down the road, America's stance towards Syria has backfired on Iraq,
where Syria is far from being sidelined. In addition to the Ba'athists, it is
close to several heavyweights, including Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr,
President Jalal Talabani and Abdul-Aziz Hakim, the head of the Supreme Iraqi
Islamic Council.
America realized - too late - that Syria's agenda was not too different from
that of Washington when it came to post-Saddam Iraq. Syria wanted a strong,
secular central government in Baghdad. It did not want religiously driven
politicians running the government, nor did it want militias - neither Sunnis
nor Shi'ites - roaming the streets of Baghdad.
After all, civil war in Iraq, just as in Lebanon in the 1970s and 1980s, could
spill over into Syria. After having tried to sideline them for five years, the
Americans are now trying to find a way to ask the Syrians for help in Iraq with
as much face-saving as possible. The Syrians will do it - for a price -
realizing just how desperate the US is for a success story in Iraq.
Loophole 2: Iran
Nations often act like human beings. When one has many friends, he dines each
night with a different friend. When one has one friend, he spends all his
nights with this one ally.
For a critical period during 2005-2006, Syria had only one friend to dine with;
Iran. This wasn't Syria's choice; it was imposed on Damascus by the US after
the passing of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559, blaming the
Syrians for the killing of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik al-Hariri,
and forcing them out of Lebanon.
The world nodded to American dictates not to talk to the Syrians, and the only
country that refused to obey was Iran. That has now changed, as channels have
opened and flourished with France, Germany, Spain, Qatar, India and Turkey. By
spearheading a campaign to isolate Syria, the Americans unintentionally led
Tehran and Damascus to cuddle up. When they realized the folly of their
actions, the Americans cried foul play, claiming that an alliance was being
formed against them, and called on Syria to distance itself from Iran.
The US realized that to continue not speaking to both Syria and Iran was
ludicrous, if they wanted to get results on Iraq. Speaking to both was close to
impossible. Therefore, America had to chose: either Syria or Iran. Syria is
easier to talk to; it takes less pride swallowing to engage with the Syrians.
Syria is a reasonable country that doesn't have a history of anti-Americanism.
Syria played a important role in securing the release of 15 British sailors
abducted by Iran in 2007. It also helped release a BBC reporter taken hostage
in Palestine, through its connections with the military group Hamas.
By doing so, Syria was challenging the long-held view that it was a
troublemaker in the Middle East. Nations that can destabilize can also -
logically - stabilize. The world is still demanding that Syria does more to get
its Persian ally to halt uranium-enrichment activities. A recent meeting in
Geneva between Nicolas Burns, the US under secretary of state, and an Iranian
diplomat gave the world more conviction that the only party that has
credibility to talk to the Iranians into halting their nuclear ambitions, is
Syria.
Iran will not listen to the Europeans. It certainly will listen neither to the
Arab world nor to the US or the United Nations. That is why Assad went to
Tehran last week, to talk to President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and Grand Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei into finding a solution.
Rather than isolate and weaken Syria, the Americans actually made it a
problem-solver in a variety of regional issues - thereby making the Syrians
indispensable to the Arab and Muslim world - the most important of which is
Iran.
Veteran British journalist Robert Fisk explained, "Mr Assad's latest trip to
Tehran - just three weeks after he helped to toast the overthrow of the king of
France beside President Nicolas Sarkozy [at the July 14 celebrations in Paris]
- seals his place in history. Without a shot being fired, Mr Assad has ensured
anyone who wants anything in the Middle East has got to talk to Syria. He's
done nothing - and he's won."
Loophole 3: Israel
In 2003, Bush raised eyebrows in Syria when he said that Syria was a "very weak
country" that "just has to wait" until all regional issues are solved before
embarking on peace talks with Israel. He thought he was punishing the Syrians
by preventing them from ending conflict with Israel, forgetting that it was in
everybody's interests - especially Israel - to close its conflict with
Damascus.
This wasn't an Anwar al-Sadat, the former Egyptian president, being punished by
being pushed out of the peace process; this was Syria, a country that has
worked relentlessly against Israel since its inception in 1948. The Syrians did
not mind and this led them to cultivate their relationship with radical groups
like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
A peace deal with Syria would not be just a real-estate deal; an exchange of
land between an Arab state and Israel, as was the case of the Camp David
accords that led to peace between Egypt and Israel. It would be a complete
strategic package that would redefine the balance of power throughout the
entire Middle East.
It would mean a new kind of relationship with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. That
does not mean, however, that Syria will abandon these groups once peace is
signed, since it is in the international community's best interests to always
have a back-channel to people like Hamas' exiled leader Khaled Meshaal and
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
These leaders listen to Syria and trust the Syrians. Syria has credibility in
the Arab street and remains committed to Arab nationalism. It is one thing when
a pro-Western country like Jordan, which has been at peace with Israel since
1994, tries to talk Hamas into changing behavior. It is something completely
different when this mediation effort is done by the Syrians.
By refusing to support Syrian-Israeli peace since 2003, the US was actually
doing Israel a great disservice. As a result, violence soured in the
Palestinian territories. War broke out in Lebanon in 2006. And more recently,
Israel had to abide by the rules of Nasrallah and get the bodies of two of its
missing soldiers returned by dialogue and prisoner exchange - for the hefty
price of releasing prisoner Samir Qantar to Lebanon. Israel faced a military
defeat in 2006 and a psychological one in 2008, with the prisoner exchange. It
had to recognize Syria's role in Lebanon and start pushing Bush to refrain from
opposing Syrian-Israeli peace.
What is even worse for the Americans is that for the first time since 1990,
peace is now being discussed, far from the corridors of Washington. The Syrians
and the Israelis entered into indirect talks in May, through the mediation of
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Americans at first refused to endorse this initiative, but under the urging
of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, more recently, did not veto the process. Both
parties are saying that for full peace to
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
