Damascus warily eyes the prize
By Bilal Y Saab and Bruce Riedel
WASHINGTON - The indirect negotiations between Syria and Israel that began last
May have gone as far as they can. Their purpose - to break the ice between the
two states after eight years of not talking, and to test one another's resolve
over certain issues - has been achieved. Now, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
wants to move forward, as evidenced in his proposal to Israel for direct peace
talks at a recent four-way summit in Damascus involving Syria, Turkey, France
and Qatar.
But Assad knows there are still two big uncertainties surrounding the prospects
of a historic peace deal with the Israelis: the position of the next US
administration and the results of a possible Israeli election. While Assad is
grateful for the role Turkey has played so far in hosting four rounds of
negotiations (a fifth is scheduled for 18-19 September, according to Turkish
Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan), and for France's pledge of help in any direct
Syrian-Israeli talks, he is only interested in a peace agreement with Israel if
it is mediated by the United States.
An agreement endorsed by Washington would not only guarantee the return of the
Golan to Syria (in exchange for a long-term security deal with Israel), but
also - and perhaps more significantly - end Syria's isolation in the world. The
most important lesson Bashar Assad learned from his father is that good
relations with Washington, more than any other foreign capital, serve Syria's
strategic interests. But, until a new US administration is in place, he knows
there's little point in proceeding with the negotiations he's proposing.
Uncertainties besiege the Israeli home front, too, and Assad is waiting for the
future of Israel's government to be decided - something that is likely to be
contingent on an election - for assurance that the next prime minister will be
on the same track as Ehud Olmert. (Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is tipped to
take over, but Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz is also in the frame.)
So between now and the election of an American president in November, and the
selection of a new Israeli prime minister some time in the next half year,
represents a delicate waiting game for Syria and Israel.
In the meantime, however, tensions between Syria and Israel remain high, even
two years after the inconclusive conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the
summer of 2006. Israel has remained deeply concerned about Syria's role in
rearming the Shi'ite militant group in anticipation of a second round.
Senior Israeli defense officials believe that with their current deployment,
the Syrians would be able to airdrop commandos into the Golan and take over
several hills there within hours. To prepare for this eventuality, Israel
recently launched large-scale military exercises with live ammunition in the
Golan Heights.
"There is reinforcement on the other side," said Israeli Defense Minister Ehud
Barak, who closely observed the drills. "It's not by chance that we are
training intensively on a major scale." In response to the drills, Syria
immediately put its military on high alert.
From a military perspective, it is unlikely that Syria and Israel would embark
on an all-out war in the short or medium term. Despite Syria's recent upgrade
of its air- and coastal-defense systems, its acquisition of the most advanced
anti-tank hardware from Moscow, and its development of asymmetrical fighting
capabilities, its military is still no match for the Israel Defense Forces. The
Syrian leadership is fully aware that any direct military encounter between the
two states would result in a clear Israeli victory.
While Israel may have no big concerns about a conventional military
confrontation with Syria, it does worry about the latter's stockpile of
chemical and biological weapons (CBW) and its surface-to-surface missiles.
Syria has been developing its CBW capability since the 1980s and has gained the
capacity in recent years to launch large numbers of medium and long-range
rockets. If tipped with chemical or biological warheads, these rockets could
cause significant damage and terror in Israel.
Do these military considerations rule out any chance of war, then?
Not necessarily. Conflict between the two countries could still occur over a
miscalculation or a misinterpretation. Not since the early 1980s has there been
such danger of escalation should one side mistake the other's intention.
To avert any dangerous miscalculations, Israel and Syria need to keep meeting
and talking. As long as the situation on the ground remains volatile, the
indirect negotiations still underway in Turkey are important, because they
reduce the risks of misinterpretation and misunderstanding between the two
states. This is the real value of the role Turkey has been playing to date.
Bilal Y Saab is a research analyst at the Saban Center for Middle East
Policy at the Brookings Institution. Bruce O Riedel is a senior fellow
at the Saban Center and author of the new book The Search for al Qaeda (Brookings
Institution Press).
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