Contradicting the United States' negative image of Iran as a rogue state
threatening its neighbors, its foreign policy machinery is churning out
proactive initiatives aimed at de-escalating tensions in the region, with
particular focus on the Caucasus and Central Asia.
Tehran's role as a mediator is taking shape as President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
prepares for his visit to New York to attend next week's annual United Nations
gathering. But a hostile reception is guaranteed there as demonstrations
planned against him will be bolstered by the presence of Republican vice
presidential hopeful Govenor Sarah Palin.
Palin should be aware of the importance of courting Iran at this
critical hour, rather than strengthening the caricature of Iran painted by
simplistic anti-Tehran voices in the US. The nation's recent diplomatic
interventions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russia and Georgia, are an
enlightening indication of Iran's capacity to act as a "main pillar of regional
stability", to paraphrase Ahmadinejad in his latest interview.
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced during his visit to
Tbilisi, Georgia, on September 17 that Iran is prepared to assist with "finding
new ideas that can help the region exit from the present [Georgia-Russia]
crises". In his meeting with Mottaki, Georgia's embattled President Mikheil
Saakashvili also admitted that Iran had a "big place in the region".
Mottaki hinted at Iran's readiness to mediate between Tbilisi and Moscow, but
added, "The absence of a declared position means that decisions on this matter
have not been made yet."
In addition to its physical proximity and historical ties, Georgia is also
important for Iran because of the planned north-south energy and transport
corridor which will traverse the Caucasus. Iran and Georgia are exploring ways
to improve bilateral commercial and energy relations. With a nod from Moscow,
as well as from the European Union, Iran could play a catalytic role in
mediating the explosive conflict.
But to play this role optimally, Iran must enhance its security dialogue with
Europe - which is why Mottaki also visited Germany as part of his whirlwind
diplomatic efforts to tackle the crisis - and break some ice with the US, as
Washington may still seek to block Iran's efforts if it misperceives them as an
adjunct to Russia's diplomacy.
Iran is keen to harvest any windfall from the new US-Russia tensions, as
already seen in Moscow's impending sale of a new anti-aircraft system to
Tehran, but such a misperception about Iran by the US is not helpful. It would
be folly to ignore Iran's concerns about Russia's ambitions, which Tehran
University political scientist Elaheh Koolaye described as an effort to
"restore hegemony".
Most Iranian political analysts do not anticipate any new shift in Iran-Russia
relations, and if anything Mottaki's meeting with Saakashvili - declared a
"political corpse" by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev - indicates that Iran
is not intent on blindly following Moscow's script, particularly if Moscow
continues with its anti-Iran measures at the UN.
From Tehran's vantage point, ruling Russian nationalists are capable in the
long run of mischief even nearer to Iran's borders, which is why Iran is
presently committed to a dual containment strategy with respect to the US and
Russia. However, the United States' escalating pressure on Iran may soon
translate into it increasingly siding with Russia to counter a common US
threat.
But with Iran and the United States enjoying a pool of shared interests in the
Persian Gulf, it would be wrong to attribute Iran a "Cold War lens", when Iran
operates as a regional power based on its own independent calculations.
Iran has embarked on new and energetic efforts to mediate the territorial
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and that was a main message delivered
in the Armenian capital Yerevan by the visiting Mottaki before his trip to
Georgia. Armenia's Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian was also told by
Ahmadinejad during a previous visit to Tehran that "there is no need for NATO
[North Atlantic Treaty Organization] for the resolution of regional problems".
Iran's new conflict-management momentum is partly due to its fear that regional
tensions could adversely affect its own national security interests, and partly
born by Tehran's determination to offset Turkey's attempt to form a Caucasus
alliance which would exclude Iran.
In his recent historic visit to Armenia, Turkish President Abdullah Gul
proposed a Caucasus alliance comprising Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, the US and
Russia. But given the new Russia-Turkey tensions in the Black Sea - which
resulted in Russia's stunning move to ban Turkish goods - any such talk of an
"alliance" is viewed with suspicion by Moscow and Tehran as an indirect bid by
Washington to move the geopolitical pieces against both Russia and Iran.
"For now it looks like a football match with the US and Turkey on one side and
Iran and Russia on the other, and that is why Moscow needs Iran more than ever
before and cannot risk taking any action that would alienate Iran," a Tehran
political analyst told the author. He emphasized the need for Russia to show
goodwill by finishing the Bushehr nuclear power plant and giving Iran "some of
the sophisticated arms, such as tanks" that Moscow has refused until now.
But what about Moscow's own misgivings about Iran's peaceful nuclear program,
which have caused Moscow to back three rounds of UN sanctions on Iran? The
Tehran analyst dismisses those misgivings and points out that Iran's Defense
Minister Amir Mousavi has flatly denied new allegations by the International
Atomic Energy Agency that Iran has attempted to redesign its Shahab-III
missiles to carry a nuclear payload.
According to Mousavi, Iran's missile program is for defensive purposes and has
no nuclear weapon components.
Such assurances by Tehran undoubtedly go a long way in addressing Moscow's
concerns, thus paving the way for Russian arms sales to Iran. An important
issue is how Washington will react to these developments. In an interview with
IRDiplomacy, Mousavi indicated that a number of Arab states in the region "have
entered the scene and various efforts are underway ... to forge some diplomatic
understanding between Tehran and Washington".
Even in the US, in light of a recent letter to President George W Bush signed
by five former US secretaries of state urging the White House to enter into
direct negotiations with Iran, there is a great deal of sentiment in favor of
reaching a modus vivendi with the Islamic republic.
Unfortunately, as reflected in Palin's ill-advised decision to speak against
Ahmadinejad at a Jewish rally in New York, the mood in the US is dominated by
pro-Israel forces, who are apt to geopolitical reductionism and constant
demonization of Iran for the sake of Israel's narrow interests.
In his latest press conference, Ahmadinejad promised "some good news" after
returning from New York, and there are unconfirmed reports of an Iran-"Iran
Six" meeting on the sidelines of the UN gathering to discuss the Iran nuclear
standoff.
A first step by Washington to acknowledge Iran's role in regional stability is
still missing though, and one should not expect any reference to it in Palin's
speech at the planned anti-Ahmadinejad rally.
Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New
Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) and co-author of
"Negotiating Iran's Nuclear Populism", Brown Journal of World Affairs, Volume
XII, Issue 2, Summer 2005, with Mustafa Kibaroglu. He also wrote "Keeping
Iran's nuclear potential latent", Harvard International Review, and is author
of
Iran's Nuclear Program: Debating Facts Versus Fiction. For his
Wikipedia entry, click here.
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