US again misfires on Iranian arms in Iraq
By Gareth Porter
WASHINGTON - Last April, top George W Bush administration officials, desperate
to exploit any possible crack in the close relationship between Iraq's Nuri
al-Maliki government and Iran, launched a new round of charges that Iran had
stepped up covert arms assistance to Shi'ite militias.
Secretary of Defense Robert M Gates suggested there was "some sense of an
increased level of [Iranian] supply of weapons and support to these groups".
And Washington Post reporter Karen DeYoung was told by military officials that
the "plentiful, high quality weaponry" the militias were then using in Basra
was "recently manufactured in Iran".
But a US military task force had been passing on data to the
Multi-National Force Iraq (MNFI) command that told a very different story. The
data collected by the task force in the previous six weeks showed that
relatively few of the weapons found in Shi'ite militia caches were manufactured
in Iran.
According to the data compiled by the task force and made available to an
academic research project in July, only 70 weapons believed to have been
manufactured in Iran had been found in post-invasion weapons caches between
mid-February and the second week in April. And those weapons represented only
17% of the weapons found in caches that had any Iranian weapons in them during
that period.
That actual proportion of Iranian-made weapons to total weapons found, however,
was significantly lower than that, because the task force was finding many more
weapons caches in Shi'ite areas that did not have any Iranian weapons in them.
The task force database identified 98 caches over the five-month period with at
least one Iranian weapon, excluding caches believed to have been hidden prior
to the 2003 US invasion.
But according to an e-mail from the MNFI press desk last week, the task force
found and analyzed a total of roughly 4,600 weapons caches during that same
period.
The caches that included Iranian weapons thus represented just 2% of all caches
found. That means Iranian-made weapons were a fraction of 1% of the total
weapons found in Shi'ite militia caches during that period.
The extremely small proportion of Iranian arms in Shi'ite militia weapons
caches further suggests that Shi'ite militia fighters in Iraq had been getting
weapons from local and international arms markets rather than from an official
Iranian-sponsored smuggling network.
The database was compiled by MNFI's Task Force Troy, which was directed to
examine all weapons caches found in Iraq beginning in early January 2008 to
identify Iranian-made weapons. The database was released by MNFI in July to the
Empirical Studies of Conflict project, co-sponsored by the US Military Academy
and Princeton University, and was published for the first time by West Point's
Counter-Terrorism Center last month as an appendix to a paper on Iranian
strategy in Iraq by Joseph Felter and Brian Fishman.
In late April, the US presented the Maliki government with a document that
apparently listed various Iranian arms found in Iraq and highlighted alleged
Iranian arms found in Basra. But the US campaign to convince Iraqi officials
collapsed when Task Force Troy analyzed a series of large weapons caches
uncovered in Basra and Karbala in April and May.
Caches of arms found in Karbala late in April and May totaled more than 2,500
weapons, and caches in Basra included at least 3,700 weapons, according to
official MNFI statements. That brought the total number of weapons found in
those former Mahdi Army strongholds to more than 6,200 weapons.
But the task force found that none of those weapons was Iranian-made. The
database lists three caches found on April 19, but provides no data on any of
them. It lists no other caches for the region coinciding with that period,
confirming that no weapons had been found to be of Iranian origin.
In announcing the weapons totals discovered in Basra on May 7, Major General
Kevin Bergner said nothing about the provenance of the weapons, implicitly
admitting that they were not Iranian-made.
Only two months before the new high-level propaganda push on alleged Iranian
weapons supplied to Shi'ite militias, the US command put out a story suggesting
that large numbers of Iranian-supplied arms had been buried all over the
country. On February 17, 2008, US military spokesman Rear Admiral Gregory Smith
told reporters that Iraqi and coalition forces had captured 212 weapons caches
across Iraq over the previous week "with growing links to the Iranian-backed
special groups".
The Task Force Troy data for the week of February 9-16 show, however, that the
US command had information on Iranian arms contradicting that propaganda line.
According to the task force database, only five of those 212 caches contained
any Iranian weapons that analysts believed might have been buried after the US
invasion. And the total number of confirmed Iranian-made weapons found in those
five caches, according to the data, was eight, not including four Iranian-made
hand grenades.
The task force database includes 350 armor-piercing explosively formed
penetrators (EFPs) found in Iraqi weapons caches. However, the database does
not identify any of the EFPs as Iranian weapons.
That treatment of EFPs in the caches appears to contradict claims by US
officials throughout 2007, and much of 2008, that EFPs were being smuggled into
Iraq by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. The allegedly
Iranian-manufactured EFPs had been the centerpiece of the US military's
February 2007 briefing charging Iran with arming Shi'ite militiamen in Iraq.
Press reports of a series of discoveries of shops for manufacturing EFPs in
Iraq in 2007 forced the US command to admit that the capacity to manufacture
EFPs was not limited to Iran. By the second half of 2008, US officials had
stopped referring to an Iranian supply of EFPs altogether.
Felter and Fishman do not analyze the task force data in their paper, but they
criticize official US statements on Iranian weapons in Iraq. "Some reports
erroneously attribute munitions similar to those produced in Iran as Iranian,"
they write, "while other Iranian munitions found in Iraq were likely purchased
on the open market."
The co-authors note that Iranian arms can be purchased directly from the
website of the Defense Industries of Iran with a credit card.
Gareth Porter is an investigative historian and journalist specializing
in US national security policy. The paperback edition of his latest book,
Perils of Dominance: Imbalance of Power and the Road to War in Vietnam, was
published in 2006.
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