Al-Qaeda 'awakens' in Iraq
By Murad Batal Al-shishani

There are indications that al-Qaeda’s struggle with Iraq’s United States-sponsored tribal Awakening Councils is far from over. An attack on the Baquba home of Awakening Council militia leader Sheikh Abdul Karim Hassan al-Dahlaji on October 29 left three family members dead and 14 others injured.

A police source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the raid was likely to have been carried out by al-Qaeda. Four days later, a roadside bomb killed Sheikh Abbas al-Tami and his family near Baquba, the capital of Diyala province. The Sheikh was the head of the Majmaa tribe and a prominent Awakening Council leader.

These incidents appear to be part of a strategy imposed by al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) in their fight with the Majalis al-Sahwat (Awakening Councils). AQI’s announcement of the establishment

 
of a so-called "Islamic State of Iraq" (ISI) in the Sunni areas of the country reflected the latest stage of disengagement between the organization and its incubator, the Sunni tribes, as al-Qaeda tries to impose its own understanding of Islam by targeting civilians (including Sunni Muslims) and "hijacking the national Iraqi resistance", as their opponents put it. This approach inflamed the Sunni tribes, leading them to organize themselves, with American support, into armed groups based on geographical and tribal distribution.

Dismantling the Awakening movement
The Awakening Councils were founded in the predominantly Sunni Anbar province in January 2006 by Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha with the aim of confronting al-Qaeda. After their success in forcing al-Qaeda from Anbar, other Sunni provinces and areas started to form their own councils, often incorporating former Iraqi insurgents. Although Abu Risha was assassinated by a suicide bomber in September 2007, one can safely conclude that Awakening Councils were the major factor behind the reduced threat posed by al-Qaeda in Iraq, as indicated by the decrease in its attacks over the past two years.

In September, a new situation was created by the US announcement that responsibility for 54,000 of the roughly 100,000 members of the Awakening Councils would be handed over to the Iraqi government. The government has pledged to absorb 20% of these members into the police and armed forces, paying them US$250 in monthly salaries rather than the $300 they now receive. The remaining 80% are to be recruited to civilian government posts.

As the Iraqi government has done little to support the Awakening Councils from the beginning, the movement’s leaders have concerns about the government’s will to commit to its pledges. They are also rejecting the deal to incorporate only 20% of movement's members into the security forces, arguing that the government should assimilate all members of the Awakening Councils into the police and armed forces, as they are unable to pursue any careers not related to security work.

In this context, Sheikh Shoja'a al-A'azami, leader of the Ghazaliyah Awakening, and Sheikh Hamid al-Hayis, leader of Anbar Awakening, have both cautioned the government about the consequences of not absorbing the gunmen of the Awakening Councils, arguing that 20% is not enough. Al-A'azami warned that "terrorist groups could use this situation to present tempting offers [to the 80% without security work]". Al-A'azami also warned that if Awakening Councils are not absorbed into the security bodies, there is a "possibility that they will stage a coup and turn into anti-American, anti-government armed groups, or will be polarized by al-Qaeda". The current situation has encouraged al-Qaeda in Iraq to find ways to punish Awakening leaders and alienate Awakening fighters from the government in the hope they will join al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda’s strategy
Since Awakening Councils control most Sunni areas, al-Qaeda’s strategy has been based on assassinating the movement’s leaders. The most significant of these was the assassination of Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, one of the Awakening founders, in September 2007. On September 11, jihadi Internet forums posted a list of more than 40 assassinated Awakening Council leaders. Other leaders and Awakening Council affiliates were also threatened.

The recent attacks on Sheikh al-Dahlaji and Sheikh al-Tami, as mentioned above, show that this strategy continues. However, at the same time, it is obvious that al-Qaeda in Iraq realizes the changing situation of the Awakening Councils and aims to benefit from it.

On October 24, jihadi web forums circulated an audio interview with the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Hamza al-Muhajir (also War Minister of the ISI), conducted by the "Al-Furqan Institute for Media Production". The interviewer asked al-Muhajir whether al-Qaeda would accept the "repentance of al-Sahwat members". Al-Muhajir replied:

Sure, the door to repentance is open, and the Amir of the Believers [Abu Omar al-Baghdadi] stated that many times, but this repentance should be according to the known sharia regulations that govern the repentance of militant groups who abandoned the Islamic sharia ... Again, I advise al-Sahwha soldiers to repent to Allah, to be remorseful and return to righteousness. I am telling them, "Hey drunk [man], you will live sadly as a spy and you will die as an infidel, an apostate, and your son will inherit nothing but shame and disgrace. Tell me, by God, if you still remember him, who will marry your daughter? What will your children say about you? What will your grandchildren say about you? Be careful nobody points to them and says; 'Hey, children of a traitor.' And be careful that your son might spit on your grave when he experiences the humiliation that survives you. By God, we are certainly going to kill you, God willing, if you do not return to God. Therefore, you, the miserable, repent! Be careful of the fatwas issued by imams of misguidance!"