The great wall between Iran and the US
By Mahan Abedin
As the Iranian revolution enters its fourth decade, the country's real leaders,
the Shi'ite clerics who control the commanding heights of government, can be
forgiven for reminding the world of their achievements.
In their 30-year quest to consolidate, widen and deepen the Islamic Revolution
of 1979, the high priests of the Islamic Republic have secured an impressive
list of achievements; from steering the country towards political and economic
independence, and securing a solid core of a highly dedicated
grassroots support base in the process, to achieving geopolitical dominance in
the Middle East.
But arguably their biggest achievement has been to emerge as the most serious
and effective anti-American force in the world. Simply put, in the global
arena, the United States does not recognize a bigger ideological and security
threat than the Islamic Republic of Iran.
But the high priests of the Islamic Revolution have paid a heavy price for
their consistent and unabashed opposition to American power in the Middle East
and beyond. And every major political, strategic and economic indicator points
to the direction of ever-escalating costs, as the Islamic Republic enters into
the fourth decade of its confrontation with the "Great Satan".
As a basic rule, the more powerful and influential the Islamic Republic
becomes, the stakes rise further still, thus fanning the global confrontation
with the United States. The geopolitical rise of Iran in the past decade has
been unprecedented in the modern history of this embattled nation.
Not since the late 18th century has Iran been able to project such power in the
region and beyond. To the clerics who control the destiny of the Islamic
Republic, this phenomenal rise is a direct consequence of the 1979 Revolution,
but a more dispassionate analysis could not fail to tie this geopolitical
success to the mistakes and follies of Iran's arch nemesis.
With the election of Barack Obama to the presidency of the United States, there
is now more talk than ever about a thaw in relations and a gradual process of
engagement leading to normalization of ties. Anyone with a good grasp of the
nature of the Islamic Revolution - and more importantly a good understanding
into the nature of the men at the helm of the Islamic Republic - coupled with a
firm knowledge of the tortured history of Iranian-American ties in the modern
period, would dismiss such talks out of hand.
Nevertheless, there are signs on the horizon pointing to a breach in the "wall
of mistrust" - to borrow a term from the lexicon of Iran's rulers - separating
the two sides. To Iran's rulers, this prospect holds both peril and promise; on
the one hand they risk undermining the very fabric of the revolution, but on
the other hand they gain invaluable space to pursue their inexorable
geopolitical rise.
The illusion of Obama
Ebrahim Asgharzadeh is one of the more enigmatic products of the Iranian
Revolution. A key leader of the students who attacked and occupied the American
Embassy (or the "Den of Espionage" as he would call it) on November 4, 1979, (a
saga that lasted 444 days and humiliated the United States), he is one of the
most interesting ideologues of the Islamic Revolution.
More rooted in the leftwing and egalitarian ethos of the revolution - but
nonetheless Islamic to the core - Asgharzadeh represents the faction in the
revolution which has an uneasy and reluctant relationship with the dominant
theocrats. Moreover, Asgharzadeh is probably the most determined and effective
anti-American ideologue in the contemporary world. Nearly three decades after
the seizure of the American Embassy in Tehran, Asgharzadeh is a more determined
opponent of American hegemony than ever.
In an interview with the semi-official Fars News Agency, which is close to the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Asgharzadeh claims that the Iranian
Revolution poses a permanent and fundamental contradiction to American
interests. [1] Asgharzadeh knows what he is talking about. He played a lead
role in reconstructing shredded confidential US Embassy documents that exposed
the full range of US manipulation in Iran for over 25 years.
To understand the anti-Americanism of men like Asgharzadeh, the serious student
must delve deeply into the murky and exploitative relationship between the
United States and post-1953 Iran. The Fars News Agency's Vizhenameyeh
Sheytan-e-Bozorg (The Great Satan Special) is a good place to start insofar as
it documents the thoughts, actions, worries and aspirations of the most
anti-American faction in the Islamic Republic.[2]
Iranian anti-Americanism is not limited to the supporters of the Islamic
Revolution. It spans the entire political spectrum, linking diehard leftwingers
with nationalists and even some remnants of the overthrown monarchy. The United
States may have reduced the Pahlavi monarchy to a mere puppet, but that hasn't
stopped key supporters of the former regime from resenting American power.
Iranian anti-Americanism is particularly fierce, deep and complex. An
exposition of its many facets and origins is beyond this essay, but suffice to
say that the US Central Intelligence Agency's role in overthrowing the
nationalist and democratically elected government of Dr Mohammad Mossdegh -
which set the stage for 25 years of American domination in Iran - drives
much of the resentment and animosity.
The Islamic Revolution added a religious ingredient to the mix, but hardcore
ideologues like Asgharzadeh have always been careful to divorce their
anti-Americanism from excessive rhetoric and emotional readings of history.
Theirs is a resentment of American hegemony based on the reality of American
power in Iran, the wider region and beyond.
This cold and calculated mentality helps explain the enduring influence of this
faction within the impossibly complex architecture of power of the regime.
Broadly speaking, the anti-American faction is part of the Islamic left, which
encompasses diverse forces, ranging from the Association of Militant Clerics
(whose founding member is the powerful Mehdi Karrubi), former prime minister
Mir Hossein Mousavi (widely recognized as the most leftwing leader in the
regime) and his supporters and former president Mohammad Khatami and his
diverse range of so-called "reformist" supporters.
But Asgharzadeh and the original group which seized the US Embassy and brazenly
highlighted the impotence of American power to the world have been careful to
steer clear of the fluid (and sometimes treacherous) factional politics of the
Islamic Republic. In the past 30 years they have eschewed positions of real
power (which would have exposed them to ruthless factional squabbles) for
semi-secret consulting and research jobs. Nonetheless, they remain crucially
influential and have access to the top people of every key institution in the
country; from the leadership, the presidency, the IRGC, the Ministry of
Intelligence and down to the Tehran municipalities (where they advise on
anti-American street murals).
From an ideological and strategic point of view, the election of Obama must be
seen in the context of the Iranian Revolution's enduring challenge to American
hegemony. Moreover, the US does not show any signs of coming to terms with the
losses it suffered as a result of the revolution and its aftermath. More to the
point, America's 30-year campaign against the Iranian Revolution - and
specifically against legitimate Iranian geopolitical and economic aspirations
in the region and beyond - has further heightened "the wall of mistrust"
between the protagonists. Any "thaw" is likely to prove tactical, but the real
question is whether the Iranian side is willing to accommodate a succession of
tactical "thaws".
Mahmud Ahmadinejad: A bitter disappointment
In the past three-and-a-half years, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has surprised
friend and foe alike. He has proven to be far more shrewd and intelligent than
initially thought and has stamped his personality onto the institution of the
presidency.
The last point is particularly unsettling to the high priests of the Islamic
Revolution since they prefer to perpetuate the association between leadership
and membership in the clerical class for as long as possible. Ahmadinejad - as
a non-cleric - has always posed a latent threat. This has come to the fore with
his highly idiosyncratic and unconventional leadership style which tends to
eschew tradition and protocol for instant demagogic gains.
During his term in office, Ahmadinejad has managed to alienate every key
faction, including some of his own support base. His saving grace has been the
strong support of the Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Seyed Ali Hosseini
Khamenei, who admires Ahmadinejad's tenacity and strength of character. This
may sound counter-intuitive - Khamenei is after all at the helm of the clerics
who control Iran's destiny - but the Supreme Leader has an idiosyncratic,
albeit uncharismatic, leadership style of his own.
In a nutshell, Khamenei is much more in tune with the Hezbollahi grassroots of
the regime than with the secretive group of clerics who pull all the important
strings. Grasping the relationship between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei requires a
deep understanding into the nature and dynamics of factional politics in the
Islamic Republic.
Ahmadinejad has proven to be most surprising in the sphere of Iranian-American
relations. Single-handedly he has broken the biggest taboo in revolutionary
Iran. Previously any mention of establishing or normalizing ties with the
"Great Satan" brought a sharp rebuke from various ideological forces and often
led to a humiliating retreat (and occasionally downfall) of the individual
proposing normalization.
But Ahmadinejad has talked openly of direct talks with the president of the
United States. Moreover, he has made four high-profile visits to the US (to
address the United Nations General Assembly in September) where he has
interacted extensively with American society. Furthermore, high-ranking Iranian
diplomats have come face-to-face with their American counterparts in Baghdad to
discuss the future of Iraq. All of these developments are unprecedented in the
history of the Islamic Republic. And they make the core ideological forces of
the revolution extremely nervous.
There is even talk of setting up an American consulate in Tehran or enabling a
small Iranian-American lobby organization (the so-called American Iranian
Council) to set up shop in the city. These developments have brought a sharp
rebuke from the anti-American faction, with Forouz Rajaifar (a prominent female
student who was involved in the seizure of the embassy) warning that reopening
the US Embassy in Tehran prepares the ground for the overthrow of the Islamic
Republic. [3]
Moreover, Massoumeh Ebtekar (the most high-profile female student who
participated in the seizure of the embassy and who served as vice president
during the Khatami years) categorically rules out any friendly relations at
this juncture. [4] The underlying issue isn't blind hatred of the United
States, but the potential consequences of taking any steps (however minor) that
point towards eventual normalization. Ahmadinejad - as intelligent and shrewd
as he is - does not possess the depth of insight and knowledge and
far-sightedness to manage this process. This is the primary reason why he has
lost the support of the anti-American faction, which initially welcomed him,
albeit reluctantly.
A world without America
As the Iranian Revolution enters its fourth decade, it is abundantly clear that
the issue of the United States is more important than ever, even more so than
the initial tumultuous days of the revolution. This makes it more important
than ever for the leaders of the Islamic Republic to clarify their position
vis-a-vis the United States and specifically American hegemony.
Justifying perpetuating the "wall of mistrust" based on the fear that the
United States seeks to overthrow the Islamic Republic can no longer constitute
a rational basis for the formulation and implementation of policy. No one
doubts that the United States and its allies seek to overthrow the achievements
of the Iranian Revolution, but then again no one intimately involved with
Iranian affairs can seriously think that the post-revolutionary system can be
undermined (let alone overthrown) by external machinations.
The Islamic Republic is a regime of powerful institutions and as a major
ideological force in the world it commands the loyalties of a very large and
highly dedicated grassroots base. The notion of "regime change" has always been
a myth, and one that has been consistently exploited by the security apparatus
of the regime. But it is time to move on.
As they contemplate their relations with the "Great Satan", Iran's rulers must
prioritize long-term ideological and geopolitical goals over short- to
medium-term political gains. While full normalization is out of the question
(and would in any case take decades to bear fruit) any thaw in any aspect of
this complex file will have profound consequences for domestic and
international policy. Iran's rulers take pride in projecting their country as
the only authentic and serious counter to American power in the world.
There is an element of hyperbole and self-righteousness in these statements,
but nevertheless they attest to a global strategic reality. One only has to
listen to how American officialdom (from the president down) has spoken about
Iran in the past 30 years to understand just how seriously the Americans take
the Iranian challenge.
More broadly, Iran's rulers need to adapt their anti-Americanism to the
realities of the 21st century. The anti-American faction of the regime has so
far taken great steps to dissociate Iranian anti-Americanism from other forms
of anti-Americanism; ranging from Latin American "anti-Gringo" counter-cultures
to the anti-Americanism of the European environmentalist movement. If
envisioning a world without America entails striving for a multipolar
international system that is more orientated to tacking global problems, then
the Islamic Republic must critically appraise aspects of its own history,
lexicon and ideology.
In the final analysis, if the Islamic Republic is serious about becoming one of
the great powers of the 21st century, then it must adopt a post-modern attitude
and actively engage with all major international forces, barring of course the
"Great Satan".
Notes
1. For the interview, click
here.
2. Click here.
3. Click here.
4. Click here.
Mahan Abedin is a consultant to independent media in Iran. He is also
director of research at the Center for the
Study of Terrorism, a London-based strategic and security think-tank.
He edits Islamism Digest, the center's monthly journal.
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