DAMASCUS - There are two main schools of thought regarding the future of Syria,
now that George W Bush has begun his long march into history and will be
leaving the White House in January. Optimists claim that the future will be
promising and rosy, citing Barack Obama's expressed desire to engage with
Damascus to find solutions to regional peace, Iraq and Lebanon.
Signals of this optimism are already emerging, the latest a statement by
President Bashar al-Assad saying that the United States will be re-appointing
an ambassador to Damascus in 2009. That went unchallenged by Washington. Other
signs include Obama toying with the idea of appointing veteran US diplomat
Daniel Kurtzer, who wrapped up a visit to Syria in mid-2008, as his Middle East
envoy. Kurtzer, who is close to the Syrians and served as Bill Clinton's
ambassador to Israel, is someone who has repeatedly called for dialogue with
Damascus.
Others, however, are careful not to get too optimistic over Obama, claiming
that dialogue between Damascus and Washington will be difficult - in some
cases, very difficult. A third school, currently a minority, believes that
Syria is in for difficult times because the international tribunal over the
assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik al-Hariri, has been set
for March 1, 2009. This will roll the clock back to 2005, when Syria’s
relationship with the international community was at a historic low. Pessimists
argue that after becoming president, Obama will find it difficult to deliver on
Syria, because of loose ends leftover from the Bush era, and would rather
pursue the Palestinian-Israeli peace process.
The good scenario
Advocates of an optimistic approach to Syria in 2009 cite the following issues
as reason for their optimism:
Europe: Syria has already mended all of its broken bridges with
Europe - with no exceptions. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband just
wrapped up a groundbreaking visit to Syria, acknowledging progress on security
with Iraq. Speaking at the Elysee Palace on the 60th anniversary of the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights, French President Nicolas Sarkozy added
that "the outstretched hand toward Syria has reflected positively on the
situation in Lebanon" and said that he had confidence in the Syrian president
and did not regret engaging with him after a solution was hammered out in
Lebanon last May.
Sarkozy was referring to his hosting of President Bashar Assad in Paris in
July, and his visit to Damascus last September, where he called for direct
talks between Syria and Israel, and offered to play broker if the Americans
continued to show a lack of interest in the Syrian-Israeli peace track. The
French want results on Lebanon and are satisfied by the election of Michel
Suleiman, a cabinet of national unity where all parties - Hezbollah included -
are represented, as well as the exchange of diplomatic ties between Damascus
and Beirut.
In mid-December, Syria is going to initiate a second phase of the Syrian-EU
Partnership Agreement, which has been on hold due to political tension since
2004. The two sides had signed an initial agreement in October 2004, but that
was frozen because of political tension between Syria and France after the
assassination of Hariri. The agreement will cover a broad range of issues,
including regional peace and security, respect for international law and human
rights.
As for the bulk of the agreement, it calls for the lifting of custom tariffs on
agricultural products and creation of a free commercial zone between Syria and
member states of the European Union in a period that does not exceed 12 years,
contributing to the establishment of a larger Euro-Mediterranean area by the
envisaged date of 2010. The agreement also covers trade in goods and services,
dismantles technical barriers to bilateral trade and implements intellectual
property rights.
It also calls for settling disputes rising in economic matters over standards
of the World Trade Organization. The only countries that to date have not
enforced an agreement in the Euro-Mediterranean family are Libya and Syria. The
EU provides financial assistance to Syria to support its economic, social and
political reform, at a budget of US$102 million for the years 2007-2010. The EU
has also provided Syria with an additional $19 million to implement projects
related to population control and the 1.5 million Iraqi refugees in Syria. If
the agreement passes in 2009, this would mean that the era of Syrian-European
tension (which started in 2005 and began collapsing in 2007) has come to an
end.
Regional peace
It would be foolish to believe that Syrian-Israeli peace can come about shortly
after Obama enters the White House. However, if Obama decides to endorse the
talks, and make them direct - what Bush had curtly refused to do - then
probably, a deal can be achieved by early 2010. All parties agree that no deal
can be achieved without the Americans.
Imad Moustapha, Syria's ambassador to the United States, recently said that "as
far as Syria is concerned, we are cautiously optimistic. Our optimism stems
from our realization of how deep is America's desire for change, our perception
of Barack Obama, the man and the president, and how Bush's foreign policies
have miserably failed". Obama comes to power in January and needs no less than
10 months to get his domestic house into order and then start concentrating on
the Middle East. That means that no serious results can be achieved on the
Syrian-Israeli track before October 2009.
The Turks meanwhile - depending on the outcome of the Israeli elections - can
keep the momentum alive for peace talks between Syria and Israel, so too can
figures like former president Jimmy Carter, who will be visiting Damascus next
Saturday. What many people fail to understand is that Syria is not seeking
financial reward for a peace deal with Israel - unlike the case with Egypt in
1978 or Jordan in 1994. Madeleine Albright, the former secretary of state, once
even commented that she was always surprised that the Syrians were not seeking
direct US financial assistance, when talks were on the verge of succeeding in
the mid-1990s.
Syria's argument always has been that the only reward it wants is the lifting
of sanctions, allowing the Syrian economy to grow and attract investment in a
prosperous and healthy manner, from Europe, the US and the Arab Gulf. Syria is
a rich country that has enough wealth and potential to manage and develop its
own economy, without US money. Paying it to sign a peace agreement would mean
that strings are attached, the Syrians believe. If peace does materialize in
late 2009 - or early 2010 - this would give, in addition to restoration of the
occupied Golan Heights, a tremendous boost for the Syrian economy, providing
jobs, attracting investment and increasing growth.
Matters began shifting in Syria's favor after the Israeli war on Lebanon in
2006. The Europeans - more so than the US - realized that isolating Syria had
led nowhere, except to empower groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. If anything
constructive was going to be done in the Middle East with regard to
Arab-Israeli peace or Lebanon, it needed to include the Syrians. The perception
of Syria started to change, from problem-maker to problem-solver.
Annapolis is actually what got the Americans to refrain from vetoing the
Syrian-Israeli talks, but Bush was never interested in pursuing Sarkozy's path
toward Damascus. The Syrians realized this early on, and capitalized on
Franco-American differences towards the Middle East. The French are practical
when it comes to Lebanon; they want solutions, regardless of how they are
reached and who is involved in reaching them, whether it is Hezbollah, Iran or
Syria. It just so happened that since May, solutions were formulated in
Damascus. The more Syria can offer on peace and Lebanon, the more likely it is
going to have a good 2009.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
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