The political re-birth of Nuri al-Maliki
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has emerged as the winner of
provincial elections in Iraq that took place January 31. A total of 14,000
candidates competed for 440 seats in 18 provincial councils, and five were
assassinated in the period preceding the elections.
Preliminary results were released on Thursday, while the final results are
scheduled for announcement on February 22. Some Iraqis were thrilled by the
results, while others sulked, having expected a smashing defeat for Maliki at
the polls. For weeks, the Saudi Arabia-aligned Arab press had been saying that
Maliki, whom such organizations consider an extension of Iranian
influence in the Arab world, was politically finished.
They speculated that with US President Barack Obama in the White House,
Maliki's honeymoon with the United States would come to an end by mid-2009.
With no American support, observers claimed, he would be voted out of office by
ordinary Iraqis in the provincial elections.
Many in the Arab world could not conceal their happiness at the prospect of his
political demise. There was even gloating and claims that Maliki was a
sectarian clown who, since coming to power in 2006, had advanced Shi'ite
interests in Iraq, at the expense of Iraqi Sunnis. He had failed to bring
security to Iraq or any kind of rapprochement between Shi'ites and Sunnis. Many
saw Maliki as a stooge for both the US and Iran, who had transformed pockets of
Iraq into a miniature theocracy, based on the Iranian model.
Preliminary results on February 5 proved them wrong. Maliki has been literally
"re-born".
Maliki's team took Baghdad in a landslide victory, along with eight of the nine
Shi'ite provinces in Iraq. By all accounts, this was a dramatic show of
confidence in the prime minister. Additionally, these were the most peaceful
elections Iraq had known since the Anglo-American invasion of 2003 - a fact
noted by everybody, including Obama.
Over 50% of Iraqis came out to vote on July 31, signaling confidence in the
security measures of the prime minister (lower nevertheless than the 55.7% of
2005). Maliki himself did not run for elections, but threw full weight behind
his team, standing as the Coalition of Law and Order.
Although originating from a party that preaches political Islam, neither the
prime minister nor any of his team campaigned on religious slogans, in an
attempt to appeal to both Sunnis and Shi'ites. That secular move was warmly
received by Iraqis, especially the youth, who seemed to be finally fed up with
the sectarian violence that has been a constant threat since 2003. Many wanted
a new political narrative, and strangely enough, the one to provide it was
Maliki.
According to election results, Maliki's team won 38% of the votes in Baghdad
and 37% in the oil-rich city of Basra. Maliki's allies in the Supreme Iraqi
Islamic Council (SIIC), who had relied heavily on religious slogans (as they
did during the elections of 2005), were strikingly voted out of office in seven
out of the 10 provinces they previously controlled.
The political bloc of Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, which also used religion
in its campaign, was similarly defeated, with less than 30,000 votes in Basra,
a city it had strongly controlled since 2003. Sadr's team are expected to get
one or two seats in Basra, another major setback for religiously driven
politicians. Secular parties scored better than expected, showing that voting
for religious figures - the trend in 2005 - may now be fading away.
That was the most important outcome of the Iraqi elections: a visible reduction
of religious loyalties and their replacement by pan-Iraqi ones. At one level,
the results were a defeat for the SIIC while at another it was regarded as a
major setback for Iran. Iran's relations with the SIIC date to the 1980s, when
its militia, the Badr Brigade, was founded and armed by the Iranians to help
fight the Iraqi army in 1980-1988. The SIIC's ailing leader Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim
is very close to the upper-echelons of power in Tehran and its defeat in such
elections is no joke.
The reasons of success, which might explain why the prime minister is
celebrating, are the following:
Sunni participation
Sunnis took part in the elections, explaining why they managed to secure
important positions in formerly violent districts like Nineveh and Anbar. Back
in 2005, the Sunni community had largely boycotted the election to protest
their status after the downfall of Saddam Hussein. More than anybody else,
Maliki had encouraged them to actively participate in 2008 because high voter
turn-out would mean better security and that would be accredited to his name.
Because of the former boycott, for example, Nineveh had been controlled by the
Kurds since 2005.
Nineveh is now back in the hands of Iraqi Sunnis. In Anbar, victory was divided
between seculars, Sunnis in the Iraqi Islamic Party, and tribal leaders who are
members of the Awakening Councils. When notables in Anbar accused the
government of fraud, Maliki's deputy Rafaa al-Issawi called for a recount on
February 4 to avoid provoking any Sunni party into a walkout. There was major
confusion in Anbar, where tribal leaders claimed that they would have been
ahead at the polls if it were not for an alleged 100,000 illegal ballots cast
in favor of their rivals, the Islamic Party.
Ahmad Abu Risheh, leader of the Awakening Councils, put it bluntly, "Don't
blame us if we threaten to resort to the use of arms. This is destiny. It is to
be or not to be," adding, "This is not democracy. It is an abuse of democracy."
Maliki made sure that the crisis did not snowball in Anbar.
Another Saddam Hussein
Maliki's willingness to impose strict security measures, which unleashed a
stream of criticism in the weeks prior to the elections and many accusing him
of becoming another Saddam, led to favorable results in the elections. Maliki
realized that in order for Iraq to pull itself together, security was more
important than democracy, and stability on the street was more important than
reputation.
Maliki went as far as to crack down heavily - and seriously this time - in
hotbeds for Shi'ite militias, like Basra, Maysan and Diyala. He did not even
spare the slums of Sadr City, which are controlled by his former ally Muqtada
al-Sadr, who controls 30 seats in parliament.
Obama's America
Speaking to the Iraqi Media Center last week, Maliki added yet another plus to
his record in the eyes of ordinary Iraqis, saying that US troops might start
withdrawing from towns and cities before July 2009, and from all of Iraq,
before 2011.
This was more music to the ears of ordinary Iraqis. Maliki said, "The new US
Administration has sent messages on its plans to withdraw the US forces ahead
of the agreed upon schedule which is something we consider to be good, and we
are ready for any political or military commitment Iraq faces in the coming
stage."
He then paid a courtesy visit to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most
senior Shi'ite cleric in Iraq, and after receiving his blessing, announced that
Iraqi troops are ready to fill in the vacuum left behind by outgoing US forces.
Maliki then picked up a phone call from Obama, who discussed troop withdrawal
and congratulated him on the election victory.
Better security, and thereby, more reconstruction, jobs, and better pay for his
citizens, topped with a new working relationship with Obama's America might
explain why Maliki emerged victorious this week, when according to most Iraqi
observers, his days in the premiership had been numbered back in February 2008.
On Thursday, as the victory seemed too good to last, a suicide bomber denoted a
bomb at a popular restaurant in the Kurdish town of Khanaqin, killing at least
15 people. The attack - one of the most violent in weeks - shook the prime
minister's office, reminding him that after the victory, real work is needed
because security, which seemed stable before, during and right after elections,
could snap in a crazy minute.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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