US and Iran stuck at pre-dialogue
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
"On the one hand the US president [Barack Obama] gives a message with an
acceptable vocabulary and on the other hand [Secretary of State Hillary]
Clinton says they are ready for negotiations, but besides that they are
preparing crippling sanctions against Iran."
- Iranian Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani
After a hectic week for Iran's diplomacy following the international firestorm
surrounding President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's controversial speech at an
anti-racism conference in Geneva, Tehran is now threading a more conciliatory
note on relations with the US.
Thus, in an interview with an American television network, Ahmadinejad
reiterated Iran's readiness to engage in dialogue with
the US "based on justice and mutual respect" and, for the first time, tacitly
embraced the idea of a two-state solution in the Occupied Territories by saying
that if the Palestinians opted for that solution, then Iran would respect their
decision.
At the same time, Ahmadinejad complained that Obama had not yet responded to
his letter of congratulations for winning the US presidency and criticized him
for condoning Israel's recent war in Gaza. Also, Ahmadinejad assured the US
that jailed US-Iranian reporter Roxana Saberi would not be harmed and hinted
that her eight-year sentence for spying for the US may be commuted.
Coinciding with the Iranian president's small olive branch toward the US were
several ominous developments. Some 54 Iranian pilgrims were massacred by
suicide bombers in Iraq, 20 or so Iranian policemen were killed near Kermanshah
by the Kurdish terrorist group PJAK - Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan - and
Iran apprehended a terror group that had planned bomb attacks ahead of the June
presidential elections.
Meanwhile, Egypt has criticized Iran for allegedly using its Hezbollah proxies
to gain influence inside Egypt, a charge flatly denied by Iran.
Despite their strong misgivings, Iran's politicians are still hopeful that a
real and meaningful breakthrough in relations with the US is possible, based on
"common interests", to paraphrase Alaedin Boroujerdi, the head of the Iranian
parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission. Both Ahmadinejad
and Boroujerdi have referred to Iran's new package of proposals about to be
unveiled, one that would ostensibly address Iran's position on the nuclear
standoff.
According to Boroujerdi in an interview with IRDiplomacy, "The basis of our
talks with the 5+1 is a package which concerns the Middle East's security
issues, Europe's demands, energy, nuclear disarmament, the fight against
terrorism, drug trafficking and many other issues which are a mutual concern of
Iran and the six powers. Common interests can be a firm basis to start
negotiations. In fact, the possibility of an agreement between the seven
countries sitting at the table is high." The six nations referred to are the
United States, France, China, Russia, Britain and Germany.
In a separate statement, Boroujerdi blamed the US for the violence perpetrated
on Iranian pilgrims visiting Iraq's shrines.
But, as Rafsanjani, who is the head of the powerful Expediency Council, stated
at his Friday prayer sermon, Iran is concerned about the lack of consistency in
the Obama administration and wants assurances from Washington that "the
language of threat" that "ruins the environment" for the coming talks between
the US and Iran. Rafsanjani dubbed the "crippling sanctions" remarks of Clinton
as a throwback to the George W Bush administration.
With the Iranian presidential elections only two months away and the
much-anticipated US-Iran dialogue seemingly stuck in the preparatory stage, due
to various considerations on both sides, there is little room for any tactical
error and cautionary signs have clearly replaced any initial euphoria of a
smooth sail forward.
Further momentum for the dialogue could come from unbundling the issues and
addressing the questions of procedural fairness and a framework for nuclear
demands congruent with the standards of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Lest we forget, 100 days after receiving Ahmadinejad's letter above-mentioned,
Obama has yet to make good on his public statement that he would study the
letter and "respond in due time". His failure to do so reflects a minor lapse
of judgment that is likely rooted in a related error, that is, discounting the
importance of Iran's presidency and focusing all attention on Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
This is connected, in turn, to the bad advice given to Obama by a number of
"Iran experts" who have repeatedly dismissed Ahmadinejad as a mere "noisemaker"
and without significant input in the foreign policy of the country. This is
sheer error and the sooner the US government stops listening to such defective
analyses of Iran's complex foreign policy decision-making process, the better.
Otherwise, the possibility of another failed chapter in US diplomacy toward
Iran remains rather high.
Within Iran's concentric circles of power, Iran's president is an important
fount of foreign policy action and behavior and by all accounts has been able
to stamp his political will on various issues, including the nuclear one. This
aside, it is equally wrong to attribute to Iran a homogenous foreign policy
mindset when, in fact, the opposite is true, as the present debates and
stinging criticisms of Ahmadinejad's performance in Geneva by various
politicians and media pundits clearly demonstrate.
There is now a strong feeling in Iran that Israel and the US managed to exploit
Ahmadinejad's fiery speech, with some help by United Nations secretary general
Ban Ki-moon, whose sharp choice of words to rebuke Ahmadinejad has met with
strong objection from Tehran. Some Tehran analysts, such as Javid Ghorban
Oghly, have gone as far as to conclude that the Geneva conference was a net
minus for Iran as it became an "anti-Iran forum, instead of an anti-Israel
forum".
In an interview with the Swiss media last week, Ahmadinejad maintained that
Israel was too small and did not even figure in Iran's national security
calculations. This raises a curious question of whether Iran's diplomacy has
paid a disproportionate price for the sake of what is only a secondary area of
interest for Iran's foreign policy. This at a time when the requirements of
tension-reduction for the sake of resolving the costly nuclear standoff dictate
a prudent policy by Tehran that would maximize its ties of regional and
international solidarity and, inversely, minimize the external threats.
According to a Tehran University political scientist, Iran's principled
solidarity with the Palestinians "is perpetually misunderstood by Israel, Egypt
and some other conservative Arab states as a sign of Iran's regional ambition,
when the real drive behind that solidarity is not political but rather moral
and religious".
However, most analysts in Iran are convinced that Israel deliberately focuses
on the "Iran threat" and exaggerates it to get itself out of the "two-state
box" and continue with its policy of land grab in the Occupied Territories.
The same Tehran professor is adamant that Israel is pressuring Washington to
draw a line in the sand on Iran's nuclear issue, principally to "convince us
that the road to Washington from Tehran goes through Tel Aviv". As a result,
Tehran is focussed on the meeting of Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu. This is one of the several reasons why the ship of dialogue is
presently anchored in the marshland of a "wait and see" that will not,
hopefully, degenerate into another round of "waiting for Godot".
Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New
Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) . For his Wikipedia entry,
click here. His
latest book,
Reading In Iran Foreign Policy After September 11 (BookSurge Publishing
, October 23, 2008) is now available.
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