Obama may need Ahmadinejad after all
By Shahir Shahidsaless
When President Mahmud Ahmadinejad was asked his thoughts on the video message
that United States President Barack Obama delivered for the Iranian New Year in
March, calling for a new beginning in the US-Iran relationship, he responded,
"I sent a congratulatory message to Mr Obama. This was a major decision ... and
I was criticized here at home, in Iran. Nevertheless, I did that. I am yet to
receive a response."
Ahmadinejad's congratulatory message to Obama was unprecedented, the first of
its kind since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. It raised many people's eyebrows
inside and out of the country while many thought that it could be a turning
point to break the ice, beginning a march towards opening dialogue between the
two hostile governments. However, as succeeding
events transpired, it turned out that Obama had no intention of responding to
Ahmadinejad's reconciliatory message.
There were two reasons why Obama ignored Ahmadinejad. First, it is hard, if not
unfeasible, for any US administration, Obama's included, to extend a hand
towards a man who has questioned the holocaust and predicted the “demise of the
Zionist regime".
Second, the assumption is that American policy-makers and political analysts
overwhelmingly and strongly believe that dealing with Ahmadinejad is nothing
but a waste of time, as the real power rests in the hands of Iran's Supreme
Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reports prepared by a variety of American
think-tanks strongly recommend that the US administration open a channel to
directly deal with the ayatollah.
Based on these two reasons, Obama ignored Ahmadinejad, and, instead, delivered
the Nowrouz (the Iranian new year) message with the hope of grabbing Khamenei's
attention.
It somehow worked. Khamenei, without wasting time, directly addressed Obama's
message - although not very nicely but reasonably nicer than the traditional
hostile tone - to establish his role, and send a signal to Washington that yes,
you are dealing with me.
However, as examined in an earlier article (Ahmadinejad
really is the man in charge Asia Times Online, March 11, 2009), the
United States is mistaken. Ahmadinejad represents the most powerful network in
the political arena of Iran led by the dominant faction in Sepah (Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps) and simply cannot be ignored. In his recent
interview with George Stephanopoulos of ABC, not once, but twice Ahmadinejad
expressed his disappointment in not having his outreach returned by Obama. His
message was clear: don't try to bypass me.
Despite Ahmadinejad's ultra-poor management of the economy and a cloud of doubt
that was hanging over the "Principlist" camp, and while the consensus on his
candidacy looked far-fetched, an article published in Sobhe Sadegh (a Sepah
publication) silenced the critics. As a result, on April 25 a coalition of 14
conservative groups announced their support for Ahmadinejad's candidacy.
The article in Sobhe Sadegh, written by General Javani, one of the masterminds
of Sepah, was focused on analyzing the real political inclinations of Mir
Hussein Mousavi, the number one rival of Ahmadinejad in the upcoming elections.
Mousavi has a very strong revolutionary background, and although close to
Iran's reformist ex-president Mohmmad Khatami (who pulled out of this June's
presidential race in Mousavi's favor), has not been involved actively with any
reform party or organization before. While he calls himself a "reformist
principlist" - a term coined by him - reformist groups hope that he can attract
both the pro-reform voters, who outnumber the conservatives in large cities,
and a good portion of conservative voters, to seal the race against Ahmadinejad
with victory.
The analysis published in Sobhe Sadegh totally dismissed Mousavi and implicitly
accused him of being a hypocrite. A part of the analysis read: “Strategically,
Mousavi is a reformist. However, in order to attract those voters who are
[Islamic] value-oriented, he has tactically chosen some principlist slogans.”
Sepah, which according to the law is prohibited to take any political side,
virtually ruled out Mousavi as a candidate that would meet the principlists'
values. This gave rise to Ahmadinejad as Sepah's candidate of choice.
It is not unreasonable to expect that, with the support of Sepah, the same
scenario that shaped the outcome of the 2005 presidential election will repeat
itself. During that election, the emergence of an absolutely unknown character
named Ahmadinejad was so peculiar and so unexpected that it left his powerful
rival, the ex-president and the current chairman of the Assembly of Experts,
Hashemi Rafsanjani, in a state of shock. Hashemi, in an open letter to the
nation following the elections, referred to "some individuals" who "illegally
interfered with the elections" and asked God to help him.
Israel and its lobby cannot fathom the realization of a normalization process
between the US and a government headed by Ahmadinejad. However, if Ahmadinejad
is able to declare victory in the June elections, then the United States should
seriously consider talking to the hardliner, whether its neo-conservatives or
their allies like it or not. As Ahmadinejad implied in his interview, he is not
to be ignored.
However, the United States may get lucky. If any of Ahmadinejad's opponents
draw an irresistible and overpowering majority of voters, his supporters led by
the dominant faction in Sepah will be taking a huge political risk if they
stand by his side. Not affording to go against a huge majority's will, Sepah
would likely concede and be prepared to work with the new president. This could
make it easier for the US to engage in dialogue, should there be a genuine
political will to do so.
Shahir Shahidsaless is a Canadian-Iranian political analyst writing
mainly in Farsi. He has a Bachelor of Science degree in engineering, and has
devoted the past 10 years predominantly to researching and writing about the
Middle East and international affairs for Farsi-speaking magazines, papers and
news websites both inside and outside the country. He has authored a book,
which has been published in Iran and Germany.
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