Maliki breaks with Shi'ite coalition
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - There are signs from Iraq that the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the
all-Shi'ite coalition that has controlled parliament since 2005, faces
difficult times as it prepares for parliamentary elections in December.
The Da'wa Party, headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, appears to have
withdrawn from the coalition. According to Hasan al-Sneid, a senior member of
Da'wa, "We are working for a broader nationalist consensus, wider than that of
the UIA."
Abdul Aziz Hakim, head of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Congress (SIIC) and the
UIA, offered Maliki the renewal of an alliance created in 2005, which Maliki
politely rejected. This came after prolonged meetings between Maliki and Hakim,
his son Ammar
and Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi, a senior member of the SIIC.
Maliki proposed dividing parliamentary seats equally between all members of the
UIA, should they win the elections. Meaning, the lion's share would no longer
go to the two largest parties, Da'wa and the SIIC. Hakim rejected the offer
because it would deprive him of the wide powers enjoyed by the SIIC since the
parliamentary elections of 2005.
This is not the first blow for the UIA. In March 2007 the Fadila Party, another
Shi'ite coalition, withdrew from the alliance because it wanted to “prevent
blocs from forming on a sectarian basis”. In September, the Sadrist bloc of
Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr also withdrew.
These were heavy hits to a coalition that had received 48% of Iraq's 8.4
million votes, winning 140 seats out of a total of 275 in parliament. The SIIC
won 36 seats, while Da'wa took 13. This was frowned on by Sunnis, who saw it as
an extension of Iranian influence in Iraq.
Many of its leaders, including prime ministers Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Maliki,
were close to Iran, while Hakim had spent his long exile during the Saddam
Hussein years in Tehran. By refusing to join the UIA, Maliki is sending a
strong message to the Iraqi people, saying that more than ever, since coming to
power in 2006, he is now standing as an Iraqi statesman - not linked to any
regional power. He is effectively taking a step away from the Iranians, and by
doing so, polishing his image in the eyes of Sunni voters.
According to the Iraqi daily al-Zaman, Maliki is bracing himself for a new
coalition that will include the Sadrists and the Iraqi Dialogue Front of Saleh
al-Mutlak, which is a non-sectarian Sunni group that was formed for the
elections of 2005. He is also toying with the idea of bringing independent
Kurds into his new coalition, which are affiliated neither with the Patriotic
Union of Kurdistan, which is headed by President Jalal Talabani, or the
Kurdistan Democratic Party, headed by Masoud Barazani. There are a variety of
reasons for Maliki's deliberate walk-away, including:
1. The UIA's leadership is falling apart now that Abdul Aziz al-Hakim is dying
of cancer. The same applies to the SIIC, where his Hakim's son Ammar, 38, is
being groomed as successor. The Iran-educated young Islamic scholar is no match
for the strong-minded Abdul-Aziz and has not been able to exert his influence
on an older generation of SIIC politicians. A reduction in SIIC's popularity
was made clear in the provincial elections last January, when it lost eight of
the provinces it used to control, especially in the Shi'ite south. Maliki does
not want to affiliate himself with a sinking boat now that the elder Hakim is
no longer in full capacity to lead it.
2. Iraq is in need of pan-Arab support in anticipation of US troop withdrawal,
which starts this summer. The Arabs will not sincerely support Iraq so long as
they see it as an Iranian satellite. If Maliki's walkout means a defeat for the
UIA and SIIC then so be it if it means he will receive political and financial
support from countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and smaller oil-rich states in
the Gulf.
3. Muqtada is again the rising star in Iraq. Muqtada and Hakim are historic
archenemies, due to a long history of rivalry between their two families over
supremacy in the Iraqi Shi'ite community. Muqtada has always been critical of
Hakim, describing him as an Iranian stooge for having fought alongside the
Iranian Army against Iraqi soldiers during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
Although bent on creating an Iran-style theocracy in Iraq, he nevertheless
wants to remain independent of Iran.
Muqtada is also critical of Hakim for having called for an autonomous district
for the Shi'ites in the south, claiming that Iraq should remain united and Arab
in its orientation. The militias of both men clashed often in 2006-2007 and
Muqtada has been very angry over Hakim's relationship with the United States,
which he refuses to call anything but “occupation”.
Hakim, however, has often called the Americans "friends". Muqtada is the
winning horse as far as Maliki is concerned, judging by the provincial election
results of 2009. A simultaneous alliance between both men, as the case in 2006,
is very difficult. By walking away from Hakim, Maliki's only obvious
alternative is Muqtada.
4. During the provincial elections, Maliki tried to come across as a
non-sectarian leader. He spoke about things that mattered to all Iraqis, like
running water, 24-hour electricity, higher wages and better security. He no
longer wants to be seen as a Shi'ite statesman but rather a pan-Iraqi leader.
If he is to deliver on any of his campaign slogans, he needs to ally himself
with local leaders who are powerful on the ground - like Muqtada in Sadr City.
The Sadrists, after all, have perfected the patron-client system - charity
organizations, health care and neighborhood security, learning from the
Hezbollah model in Lebanon.
Muqtada's men served as ministers of health, commerce and education in
2006-2007, and they would know how to deliver on these portfolios that matter
to ordinary Iraqis. The relationship would be: Maliki provides the Sadrists
with political cover - and cabinet posts - in exchange for them legitimizing
him on the Iraqi street. Neither the SIIC nor their Badr militia can do that
anymore.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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