Obama's Iran overture derailed By Shahir Shahidsaless
The air was filled with friendly messages, smiles and nice compliments during
the press conference held shortly after the meeting between Israel's Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and American President Barack Obama. But the public
niceties couldn't cover up deep disagreements between the leaders, especially
with respect to dealing with Iran.
Netanyahu said a timetable had to be set for negotiations with Iran on its
nuclear program, whereas Obama clearly rejected the idea and said he saw "no
reason to set an artificial deadline for diplomacy with Iran". This clear
objection to the firm position of the Israeli prime minister was probably the
highlight of the press conference and in line with Obama's overture to Tehran.
Obama and his administration, however, still fail to recognize signals from
Tehran and are getting trapped in George W Bush-era politics.
Iran's Supreme Leader wasted no time responding to Obama's greeting for the
Iranian New Year. "True change ... should be seen in action," Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei said the day after Obama's video message. One might wonder, isn't
Obama's message an action in itself? Perhaps, but there are some alarming
indications surrounding this olive branch that trouble is brewing behind the
scenes.
The Iranian government has a history of being punished for cooperation with the
United States and for that feels deeply betrayed. In a recent story in the New
York Times titled "Have we already lost Iran?", two ex-US officials familiar
with Iranian politics were quoted as saying, "The real reason Iran leaders have
not responded to the new president more enthusiastically" is that "the Obama
administration has done nothing to cancel or repudiate an ostensibly covert but
well-publicized program, begun in president George W Bush's second term, to
spend hundreds of million of dollars to destabilize the Islamic Republic."
As reconfirmed in the same New York Times story, Iran helped the US topple the
Taliban government in Afghanistan in 2001, but in return Iran was rewarded by
being included in Bush's "axis of evil".
The story about the covert operations against the Iranian government was
detailed in 2007 in an ABC News Exclusive called "The Secret War Against Iran".
The news revealed that the group Jundallah's "guerrilla raid inside Iran has
been secretly encouraged and advised by American officials since 2005" and had
been indirectly funded "through Iranian exiles" to avoid "congressional
oversight".
Just a few days ago, the same group, talking to Saudi-owned TV channel
al-Arabia, claimed responsibility for bombing a mosque on May 28 in the city of
Zahedan in Iran which killed 25 people and injured 125. Not surprisingly, an
Iranian official accused the US of being behind the bombing, but a US State
Department spokesman denied any involvement.
In today's political climate, Tehran remains extremely skeptical about Obama's
new policy because of some puzzling and contradictory signals.
During Netanyahu's visit to Washington, Obama made several statements regarding
Iran. One of which was reminiscent of Bush-era rhetoric: "We're not going to
create a situation in which the talks become an excuse for inaction while Iran
proceeds with developing ... and deploying a nuclear weapon."
Obama's position was reaffirmed by Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff and Obama's top military adviser. Interviewed on ABC's This Week,
Mullen said: "Certainly ... Iran is on a path to develop a nuclear weapon." He
also warned that Iran is on track for building a nuclear weapon by 2011.
Is there any evidence validating Obama's and Mullen's statements? Some might
argue the opposite view is accepted and validated. The recently published
report titled "Iran's Nuclear and Missile Threat Assessment" and prepared by an
army of American and Russian experts working for the East West Institute, is a
case in point.
In this detailed report there is no shortage of statements indicating that
there is absolutely no evidence that Iran is pursuing the path to making a
bomb. Even in that case that Tehran decided to make a bomb "to build a nuclear
warhead that is small enough and light enough for an Iranian missile to
deliver" would take between "six to eight years", according to the report.
The report reminds us that "neither the IAEA [International Atomic Energy
Agency] nor the US intelligence community has published data proving that Iran
is developing, manufacturing or testing any nuclear devices".
What then is behind Obama"s public statement that he will not let the talks
prolong while "Iran proceeds with developing ... and deploying a nuclear
weapon"?
To the Iranian government, surrounded by bitter memories of three decades of
animosity resulting in severe mistrust, these accusations are nothing but part
of the core US policy of shaping an international consensus to escalate
sanctions on Iran to a crippling level.
There is an unobserved but extremely destructive consequence to this policy of
constantly accusing Iran of trying to develop nuclear arms. It grants the
hardliners a golden opportunity to push back their moderate rivals and
reinforces their position inside the ruling network of Iran.
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad feeds on this antagonistic policy to his advantage
as his moderate rivals, such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of the Assembly of
Experts, are increasingly pushed to the political margins. Insisting on this
accusation is an indication to the Iranian leaders that despite Obama's policy
of extending an "unclenched hand", the plan of shaping an anti-Iranian
coalition continues.
Shahir Shahidsaless is a Canadian-Iranian political analyst writing
mainly in Farsi. He has a Bachelor of Science degree in engineering, and has
devoted the past 10 years predominantly to researching and writing about the
Middle East and international affairs for Farsi-speaking magazines, papers and
news websites both inside and outside the country. He has authored a book,
which has been published in Iran and Germany.
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