BEIRUT - On Sunday, Lebanon goes to the polls to elect a new parliament in what
could be one of the most significant elections in the country's history. With
the help of Christian votes, the Hezbollah-led opposition is expected to
narrowly win enough seats for a majority in parliament in what has been a
turnaround 12 months for the Shi'ite group.
Last May saw Hezbollah substantially increase its military and political
capital as several days of violence sparked by an accusation it had installed
its own cameras at Beirut International Airport led to the deaths of over 100
people in running street battles across Beirut. The fighting saw Hezbollah take
control of the airport and a large swathe of Sunni-dominated areas in the city.
Fearing a return to civil war, the ruling March 14 alliance was
forced to climb down and the resulting Doha Accord saw Hezbollah included in a
new national unity government. Now Hezbollah stands on the brink of further
success.
This week's campaigning has been carried out against the backdrop of Israel's
massive five-day military exercise, part of which was conducted close to the
Lebanese border and could turn undecided voters into the hands of the
opposition. Hezbollah's forces have been viewed as the only element capable of
keeping Israel at bay, as they did in July 2006. Commentators have said Israel
wants to see Hezbollah succeed in order to engage it in conventional warfare.
Lebanese brand of democracy
With top political figures owning influential print and broadcast media
outlets, politicians are clearly been heard, but not listened to, says Deen
Sharp, a journalist and writer of the Lebanon Election 2009 blog. "Most people
are not bothered about these elections."
Domination of the media landscape has been complemented by access to cash,
meaning political rhetoric has trumped other more important issues concerning
the electorate. One opinion piece in a Lebanese newspaper laments the fact
that, "Offers of plane trips home for the diaspora, medical services, food,
school tuition and jobs are routinely cited as leading items 'on the menu'."
Lebanon's demographic make-up includes over 20 sects and sub-sects, including
Sunni, Shi'ite, Druze, Maronite, Armenian Catholic and Orthodox and Greek
Catholic and Orthodox groupings that vote along religious, parochial and
familial lines.
How the Christian community votes this Sunday will largely decide whether the
March 14 alliance retains its majority or loses it to a rival coalition that
includes in addition to Hezbollah, the Amal Movement and Michel Aoun's Free
Patriotic Movement which has recently joined the opposition in a "tactical
alliance".
Such alliances are not uncommon in a system that sees opposing coalitions
grouped together along loose ideological lines and often drawn up just weeks
before election time, with little policy discussion ever taking place.
Aoun, who has been criticized widely, is regarded by many opponents to have
come over to the opposition's side to throw his hat in the ring for the
presidential post - a position reserved for Christians. (The prime minister and
house speaker posts are reserved for a Sunni and Shi'ite member of parliament
respectively.)
"[Aoun] will never like a president other than himself ... [and] will attack
any president of Lebanon unless he's Michel Aoun," said Hilal Khashan, an
academic at the American University of Beirut in an interview with a local
newspaper last week.
"The key factor is that the Christian members of the March 14 coalition, the
Lebanese forces and Kataeb, have been unable to turn the tide against the Free
Patriotic Movement. Pollsters are predicting that Aoun will maintain the same
kind of support that he received in 2005. This is why an opposition win is said
to be likely, but of course we will have to see on election day whether this is
the case or not," said Sharp.
The world looks on
International capital has poured into the campaigns of the ruling March 14 bloc
and the opposition, a mark of the importance Lebanon is held by interested
countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United States, Iran and Syria, all of whom
have used this small Mediterranean country to further their own concerns.
If the opposition wins on Sunday, US President Barack Obama's plan for a
region-wide peace process will be dealt a serious blow. Having already made
overtures to Iran and Syria, doing the same with a Hezbollah-dominated Lebanese
parliament would be an unwelcome road to go down. And when visiting Beirut two
weeks ago, US Vice President Joe Biden made clear Washington's fear of a
Hezbollah win when referring to American support for Lebanon during a speech.
"We will evaluate the shape of our assistance programs based on the composition
of the new government and the policies it advocates," he stated. Washington has
assisted Lebanon with US$1 billion since 2006, including about $400 million in
military support, and should Hezbollah - listed by the US State Department as a
terrorist organization - lead a new government, such explicate support would be
impossible to imagine.
Edgy campaign trail
One candidate reported to the media that he received death threats from an
opponent following a heated debate on a television talk show. Another had his
family home burnt down while Ahmad al-Assaad, a Shi'ite running under the March
14 ticket in south Lebanon, reported that 27 of his party's cars had been
destroyed.
The arrest of dozens of people in the south suspected of spying for Israel and
an article in the German newspaper, Der Spiegel, tying Hezbollah to the
assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, have
added to the tension.
On the whole however, this campaign has been an improvement on previous efforts
with no deaths or major incidents having been recorded. For the first time,
ballots will be cast on the same day, something which brings added pressure on
Lebanon's security and military forces but stands as an attempt to bring the
country's political system into line with Western norms.
Still, while violence is not widely expected on Sunday, no chances are being
taken. Night clubs and restaurants will close early over the weekend, trucks
are banned from Beirut's city center and 50,000 extra security personnel have
been called up to assist police.
Many people are tired of the relentless rhetoric, media coverage and the
domination of politics in everyday Lebanese life. "Hezbollah has nothing to
offer the people - they don't have a real political mandate," said one man from
Jbeil who introduced himself as a Christian voting for March 14.
During the campaign, politicians on both sides have shied away from announcing
specific mandates addressing the economy, education or social issues, instead
focusing on personal rivalries and "as long as the sky is blue ... " type
speeches.
An elderly woman sitting outside a cafe in Beirut summed up the feeling on the
Lebanese street well, "No one is the best. What have these politicians done for
us so far anyway? The last few weeks have been awful. Through the years I've
seen a lot and the only faith I have now is in God."
Stephen Starr is a freelance journalist.
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