Hezbollah handed a stinging defeat
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - The results of Sunday's Lebanese parliamentary elections were
unexpected, with early results showing the pro-Western March 14 coalition
scoring a landslide victory. The coalition has retained its majority by
capturing anywhere between 68 to 70 seats of the 128-seat parliament.
The Hezbollah-led opposition, which had been expected to take the majority,
emerged with only 50 seats, although eight seats are still to be announced in
the Metn region. Early results show that of these eight seats, only two were
taken by March 14 coalition candidates - Michel al-Murr and Sami Gemayel -
while the remaining six went to Hezbollah.
Even with an additional six seats, meaning the opposition bloc
would control 56 seats, March 14 would still have a clear majority. According
to the Taif Accords, hammered out by Syria and Saudi Arabia to end the Lebanese
civil war 20 years ago, parliament is divided along the following lines: 27
seats (Sunnis), 27 seats (Shi'ites), 34 seats (Maronite Christians), while the
remaining 40 seats are allocated to Druze, Greek Orthodox and Alawites.
There were no surprises in this regard on Sunday. Hezbollah and Amal candidates
captured all 27 seats allocated to the Shi'ites. The Saad al-Hariri bloc took
the majority of the 27 seats allocated for Sunnis. The real tipping point was
the Christian vote, divided between former army commander Michel Aoun on one
front, and a coalition of Christian leaders, headed by ex-president Amin
Gemayel and ex-warlord Samir Gagega, on the other. The Christian vote emerged
as more united behind March 14 than it was around Michel Aoun, explaining the
20-seat difference between the camps.
It is unclear how regional players will react to the results. The Iranians are
too busy, planning for their own elections, scheduled for Friday. The Syrians
have promised to support whatever choice is made by the people of Lebanon. They
would not interfere, they repeatedly said to American and European guests over
the past two weeks. During a meeting with his Saudi counterpart Saud al-Faisal,
Foreign Minister Walid al-Mouallem also pledged to work with Riyadh to carry
out smooth elections in Lebanon.
Hezbollah, campaigning directly with 11 candidates, won all of its allocated
seats, taking the towns of Nabatiyeh, Marjeyoun, Hasbaya, Tyre and Bin Jbeil.
None of its candidates lost. Its ally, former minister Suleiman Franjiyeh, took
his native town of Zghorta, a leading Christian stronghold. The Free Patriotic
Movement of Aoun took Christian strongholds such as Kesrouan, Jbeil, Baabda and
Jezzine.
Meanwhile, the electoral list for Hariri, who returns to head the parliamentary
majority, scored a clean sweep in Beirut, Batroun, Koura, Bsherri and Tripoli.
March 14 also swept districts like al-Shouf, where Druze leader Walid Jumblatt
ran unopposed. Many of the old faces of March 14 returned to the front,
including Hariri, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, his two allies Ghazi al-Aridi,
former information minister, and Marwan Hamadeh, former minister of
telecommunications.
They Hariri candidates allied themselves with newcomer Tammam Salam, the
current minister of culture who is scion to one of the heavyweight Sunni
families of Beirut. In the northern city of Tripoli they sided with ex-prime
minister Najib Mikati, who headed a caretaker cabinet for 90 days to supervise
the elections of 2005.
The elections are important for many reasons:
1. These are likely to be the last elections for Aoun, 74. Although he
won a seat with ease in Keserwan, he was eyeing a parliamentary majority, and
did not get it. Likewise, he wanted to become president in 2007-2008, but also
failed at securing a seat at Baabda Palace. The next time the Lebanese go to
the polls, Aoun will be 78 - too old for the presidential office, and probably
too frail for parliament.
His aging ally Issam Abu Jamra, a retired officer, won no more than 8,882 votes
in these elections, while young candidate Nayla Tweini, in her mid-20s, came
out with 13,230. As these candidates become older, voters are naturally,
becoming younger.
2. A rising generation of young politicians is emerging, like Tweini and
Sami Gemayel, both in their 20s, who are likely to set the trend for young
Lebanese. Although hailing from leading political families, both are complete
newcomers to the political scene.
Tweini is the daughter of slain An-Nahhar publisher Gibran Tweini, and
granddaughter of the veteran journalist Ghassan Tweini. Gemayel's father is
ex-president Amin Gemayel. His uncle is slain president Bashir Gemayel, while
his brother is slain minister, Pierre Gemayel. Despite their ancestry, both MPs
are young, fresh and hold no responsibility for any of the mistakes of the past
carried out by their fathers and grandfathers.
3. These elections will lead to a cabinet change. The two names
earmarked to replace Fouad Siniora as premier are Hariri and Tripoli MP and
ex-prime minister Najib Mikati. Although 15 years apart, the two men are among
the richest in Lebanon. According to Forbes magazine, they are among the
richest in the world as well, with Mikati worth US$2.6 billion, while Hariri is
worth $5.1 billion.
Mikati is self-made, having personally turned his telecommunications company
into a giant empire in the early 1980s. Hariri, who inherited his fortune after
the killing of his father in 2005, also inherited his political position.
Mikati worked for his, starting up the ladder as minister of public works in
1998. He then became a deputy in parliament in 2000, and in 2005 served as
interim prime minister.
Using their 50 seats, the Hezbollah-led opposition will never allow Hariri to
become prime minister, meaning the post is likely to go to Mikati, who is
acceptable to all parties, and is friends with the Syrians.
In Lebanon's neighborhoods, the election results came as a surprise to many.
The Saudis and Americans had both implicitly warned Lebanese voters that if
they voted for Aoun or the Hezbollah-led opposition, it would mean an
investment crisis for Lebanon.
In an joint interview with the London-based al-Hayat on Saturday, US Assistant
Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Jeffery Feltman said: "The election's
outcome will naturally affect world's stance towards the new Lebanese
government and the manner in which the United States and Congress deal with
Lebanon."
He added, "I believe the Lebanese are smart enough to understand that there
will be an effect. When Hezbollah claims that there won't be any effect, when
it claims that it is not interested in the matter, I tend to believe that the
Lebanese with their intelligence would think otherwise."
He then criticized Aoun, who has been saying that the Christians of Lebanon
should not rely on the United States, saying: "One of your politicians is
proposing that Christians shouldn't depend on the United States. I hope the
Lebanese had accurately listened to the president's [Barack Obama] speech that
specifically pointed to the widest Christian religious minority in Lebanon, the
Maronites. The president spoke about the need for respecting all peoples in the
region including minorities ... I hope the Lebanese would ask themselves: do we
want to be on the side of the international community and close to the stances
that President Obama made? I hope they would say yes."
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
