DAMASCUS - The success of the pro-Western March 14 coalition in last week's
Lebanese elections - winning 71 parliamentary seats out of a total 128 - came
as a surprise to many observers.
The Hezbollah-led opposition kept its previously held standing as a minority,
with 58 seats. Hezbollah itself won with a sweeping majority in all of its
constituencies, showing that although the party's coalition was defeated in
certain districts, the party is still all-powerful inside Lebanon.
This victory came about without any kind of Syrian support. In fact, the party
has more deputies in parliament today than it had when the Syrians were in
Lebanon prior to 2005. Contrary to what many believe, the elections were still
not a drawback for the Syrians.
positively on the elections, as did Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad. Both
said that although the vote was an "internal Lebanese issue", Syria was
nevertheless pleased that they took place in a democratic and smooth manner.
President Bashar al-Assad telephoned his Lebanese counterpart Michel Suleiman,
congratulating him on the elections and remarking, "This spirit is necessary to
face and deal with the forthcoming challenges."
United States President Barack Obama also called Suleiman and echoed a similar
message, describing the elections as "calm, free, democratic and away from
pressures".
A victory for Hezbollah would have put the Lebanese party in difficult
position. Days before the elections, Obama said that he would respect all
democratic elections around the world - even if they brought to power figures
that disagreed with the United States. A Hezbollah victory would certainly have
scared countries in the Arab Gulf, which threatened, either publicly or in
private, to severe all aid to Lebanon.
The West would have had a hard time dealing with a Hezbollah-led
administration, and Israel may have used the victory to trigger another war
with Lebanon. With the current results maintaining the status quo of the
2005-2009 parliament, investor confidence in Lebanon is likely to rise, and
Israel will have no pretext to go to war against Lebanon.
The real issue is who will emerge as the next prime minister. In the past,
March 14 had said that it will not participate in any cabinet that is headed by
Hezbollah's allies. They are now saying that they would welcome a national
unity cabinet, but without veto power for the Hezbollah-led opposition.
According to Lebanese political analyst Paul Salem, "This wrangling is likely
to take weeks, but it is unlikely to come to blows or to reach a complete
impasse. Neither side is interested in escalation or a breakdown. Their patrons
in the region and internationally - Saudi Arabia, the United States, Syria and
Iran - are more interested in negotiations than escalation at this point."
The two candidates for the premiership are Saad Hariri, who commands March 14,
and former prime minister Najib Mikati, an independent who is close to all
parties, including Hariri, the Syrians, and Hezbollah. Speaking to Rai Uno TV,
Hariri recently said for the first time, that he is toying with the idea of
becoming prime minister: "I am no longer afraid to assume this role."
Amid all talk about Hariri becoming prime minister, the Lebanese daily
al-Akhbar ran an interesting story that was reprinted on many Syrian websites.
It quoted Lebanese sources who had been to Damascus saying that the Syrian mood
towards the elections was "positive" provided that Syrian basic interests are
upheld. One of these interests was listed as "protecting the resistance [in
reference to the arms and future of Hezbollah], and preventing any conspiracy
against Hezbollah".
The newspaper added that "positive talk" was heard in Damascus about a possible
Hariri premiership. This suggests that the Syrians would not mind dealing with
him, provided that he change his aggressively anti-Syrian tone on becoming
prime minister.
While all of this was happening, relations seemed to be rapidly improving
between Syria and the US. Many in the US had been arguing that any real
development in bilateral relations was conditional on Syrian cooperation in
Iraq and Lebanon. Syria helped secure - although indirectly - safe provincial
elections in Iraq last January. Using its influence, Syria managed to get all
Iraqi parties, the Sunnis included, to take part in the political process.
Damascus has been cooperating with the US on counter-terrorism issues.
Syria recently sent a heavyweight delegation, headed by Prime Minister Mohammad
Naji Otari, to Baghdad to discuss bilateral trade, border security, and
technical cooperation on water, electricity and culture. If Iraq and Lebanon
were the reasons behind a stalemate in US engagement with Damascus, then for
all practical purposes, both these reasons no longer exist.
Shortly after the elections, it was confirmed that Obama's Middle East envoy
George Mitchell would visit Damascus on June 12 - his first trip since Obama
came to office last January. Former US president Jimmy Carter also landed in
Damascus this week for his second visit in six months. Carter met with Assad
and said that Obama wanted to remove sanctions imposed on Syria by the George W
Bush administration in 2004, and send an ambassador back to Damascus - a post
left vacant after Bush withdrew his ambassador in February 2005.
Although Syrians would have liked to hear Obama speak about the occupied Golan
Heights during his speech in Cairo on June 4, many were nevertheless satisfied
with the president's tone about peace in the Middle East. The welcomed his
allusions to opening a new page in relations with the Arab and Muslim world.
These words were re-emphasized by Carter.
Speaking to American journalist Helen Cobban, Foreign Minister Walid
al-Mouallem explained his country's views on upcoming Syrian-US relations. "We
think President Barack Obama seems very sincere. With the speech, we hope that
Obama can deliver everybody's dreams ... including his own dreams and those of
the Palestinians - to see the occupied territories freed from occupation,"
Mouallem said.
Although he questioned whether Obama would be able to keep his promises, given
US congressional opposition to his stance on Israeli settlements, Mouallem
noted: "We approve of Barack Obama a lot. The man [put] comprehensive peace
back on the agenda."
On Mitchell's upcoming visit, Mouallem said: "I don't know [former] Senator
Mitchell, but I have worked closely in the past with Fred Hof, who is one of
his assistants. What we've heard about Mitchell's work in Northern Ireland and
on the Mitchell commission on the Palestinian issue is encouraging to us. We
are very ready to work with him."
On May 31, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke to her Syrian
counterpart by phone, calling for a "roadmap" to push Syrian-US relations
forward. "I think Hillary Clinton is a good and effective secretary of state.
We agreed on a road map to normalize US-Syrian relations in all fields -
political, security, and cultural," said Mouallem. "We agreed we have a mutual,
shared vision that centers around these three points: to stabilize Iraq, to
work for a comprehensive peace in the Middle East, and to cooperate on
combating terrorism."
Mouallem and Clinton agreed for a US military delegation to come to Syria to
discuss the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, border security and
counter-terrorism. The delegation will be arriving Friday, the same day as
Mitchell. Mouallem noted: "I am very eager to see a real improvement in our
relations with Washington. But nothing has happened yet."
He said that although the Obama administration had approved American airplane
manufacturer Boeing selling spare parts to Syrian Airways to renovate its fleet
despite US sanctions, the spare parts had not arrived.
"We have seen no movement. They haven't informed the Europeans yet that it's OK
to ship those parts. I think your commerce secretary could authorize this
whenever he wants, as it's a matter of aviation safety," Mouallem said. "It
seems anachronistic to us that Obama recently renewed the Syrian Accountability
and Restoration of Lebanese Sovereignty Act. The issue has been resolved. We
withdrew our troops from Lebanon and have exchanged ambassadors with Beirut."
Mouallem then went on about peace talks to restore the occupied Golan Heights
to Syria. He called for repeating the indirect talks with Israel, held under
Turkish mediation, from April to December 2008.
"The best way would be to try to repeat this approach now. If this should
succeed, the success would belong to Barack Obama - and if we fail, the failure
would be ours alone. Why do we need the US in this? Firstly, because of the
unique nature of the relationship they have with Israel, and secondly because
of their command of certain technical capabilities - for monitoring and
verification of a peace agreement - that only the United States has," he said.
A reading of Mouallem's comments and all the developments since January 4,
reveals some clear messages from Damascus:
Syria believes that Obama was sincere on June 4, and is waiting to see whether
he can put his words into action, despite strong objections from a pro-Israeli
lobby in Washington.
Syria is still as committed, as it has been since the Madrid peace conference,
to sit down and discuss peace with a serious Israeli government for the sake of
restoring the Golan Heights. Any talks would need the Americans, and Syria is
calling on Obama to live up to his promises of peace and see to it that the
issue of the Golan Heights is given a high priority on his Middle East agenda.
Syria is willing to work with the new leaders of Lebanon, provided they are
willing to work with "and protect" Hezbollah.
Syria is willing to help the Americans bring security to Iraq prior to their
departure. Syria welcomes the gradual withdrawal of US troops this summer, and
to be fully gone by 2012. Last year, Mouallem said that Syria was willing to
help the Americans achieve an "honorable exit from Iraq". He hinted that he
appreciated that Obama was not responsible for bringing US forces there in
2003.
Taking these signals into consideration, the time is ripe for a Syria-US
honeymoon. After the Obama speech in Cairo and after the smooth Lebanese
elections, the basic ingredients are all there. The keys to success lie in the
peace process. In this regard, there is agreement between Syria and the US on
what needs to be done to call for an international conference, chaired by
Obama, to discuss peace, security and the Golan Heights.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
