Iran's enemies are circling
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The controversial re-election at the weekend of hardline President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad to a second four-year term raises a cloud over United States
President Barack Obama's hopes of engaging Iran in serious negotiations.
For a recently activated nexus, though, Ahmadinejad's unexpected thumping
victory and the intense reaction it has aroused among supporters of the main
losing candidate, reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi, provide a golden opportunity
for renewed efforts to destabilize Iran.
The nexus includes the People's Mujahideen of Iran (MKO), a militant Islamic
organization that advocates the overthrow of the government; the
Pakistani-based Iranian Jundallah, a Sunni group
opposed to Tehran; the regional drug mafia and al-Qaeda.
Iranian state radio reported on Tuesday that eight people had been killed
during Monday's protests in Tehran after tens of thousands of protesters took
to the streets. The reports said the deaths came after "thugs" attacked a
military post. The mass protests in the capital were the biggest since the
Iranian revolution in 1979.
Even though Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for an inquiry
into allegations of vote-rigging - there is going to be a recount - the unrest
is likely to continue as it is highly improbable the result will be reversed.
"The turmoil is unprecedented and has indeed manifested the divisions in Iran,"
commented Pakistani Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed in a television interview.
Mushahid, an expert on Iran and an enthusiastic supporter of the revolution, is
known for keeping close contact with the government in Tehran.
The troubles in Iran come at a critical juncture for the Barack Obama
administration in the United States, which has pledged better relations with
Iran - a country that for years has been vilified by successive US governments,
especially by the George W Bush administration, which accused Tehran of having
a nuclear weapons program.
State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said on Monday, "We are in a position of
still assessing what went on, and it's difficult to assess, because there
weren't any international monitors at the elections. He added that Washington
was "deeply troubled by the reports of violence, arrests and possible voting
irregularities".
The crux, though, is that Obama's policy of engagement requires that he deal
with Iran - indeed, he needs the country with regards to the US's withdrawal of
forces from Iraq, and the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and
Pakistan.
With regard to the latter, the US wants the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization's non-military supplies to pass through Iran's Chabahar port on
the way to Afghanistan as the route through Pakistan is increasingly under
attack as the situation deteriorates in North-West Frontier Province and the
tribal areas where Pakistani security forces are in fierce battle with
militants.
For the time being, these issues between Washington and Tehran will likely
remain on the backburner until tension eases in Iran. For others, the simmering
situation presents immediate opportunities.
Lining up against Iran
The current turmoil could give the MKO in Iran's Sistan and Balochistan
province a boost. Over the past few years, the armed opposition group has lost
a lot of its momentum, although it has killed hundreds of Iranian soldiers in
its decades-long struggle against the government. The decline began with the
US-led invasion in 2003 of Iraq, where Saddam Hussein had provided the MKO with
sanctuary.
At the same time, Jundallah, an insurgent Sunni Islamic organization based in
Pakistan's Balochistan province, has gained in strength, and recently it formed
a loose alliance with al-Qaeda and the MKO.
Businessman Abdul Malik Rigi's Jundallah is behind several acts of terror in
Iran, including the May 28 bomb attack on a Shi'ite mosque in the city of
Zahedan that killed 25 people killed and injured 125. Rigi has been accused of
being a proxy for US intelligence to destabilize Iran, although no hard
evidence has emerged.
Abdul Haq Hashmi, the president for Balochistan province of the religious party
the Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan, commented to Asia Times Online, "I can assure you
through my contacts that Rigi worked in close coordination with the regional
drug mafia, which was being given a tough time by the Iranian security forces.
They were looking for some protection, and Rigi emerged and then tried to
launch an insurgency in Zahedan."
Hashmi, a graduate of the Salafi Islamic University of Medina, Saudi Arabia,
continued, "Rigi is not at all the representative of the Sunnis of Iran's
Baloch population. Iranian Sunnis are as much in tune with the Iranian
government as the Shi'ites. Neither is there any major ethnic rift or sectarian
rift. Had that been the case, the largest Islamic seminary of Sunni orientation
would not be the biggest supporter of the Iranian government. That seminary is
Darul Uloom Zahedan, and its chairman, Maulana Abdul Hameed, is strictly behind
the government.
"I don't know whether Rigi is an American proxy, but he did carry out sectarian
violence in Iran. Whether he instigates Sunnis for insurgency or simply kills
Shi'ites, in either case sectarian tension is escalated and it is a chance for
Americans to destabilize Iran's revolutionary government," Hashmi said.
Asia Times Online investigations indicate that Rigi had been on the run for
some time, out of funds and with dwindling support, when a few months ago he
hooked up with a Pakistani group, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. This anti-Shi'ite
militant organization operates throughout Pakistan and has a strong base in the
South Waziristan tribal area on the border with Afghanistan.
One of the leaders of the Lashkar, Qari Zafar, then facilitated contact between
Rigi's Jundallah and al-Qaeda, resulting in Jundallah receiving a new line of
funding in addition to its drug money - the immediate result was the attack in
Zahedan.
As Jundallah stands now, its alliance with the Iranian MKO has given it
additional manpower, as has the Lashkar, which also provides arms and
ammunition and the expertise necessary to carry out cross-border operations in
Iran as well as to revive the insurgency in Iranian Baloch regions.
At the top of this regrouped armed anti-Iranian nexus stands al-Qaeda,
orchestrating events for its broader goal of regional destabilization.
Given the present turmoil in Iran, and the longstanding international pressure
on Tehran which can be expected to increase now that Ahmadinejad is in power
for another four years, the al-Qaeda-led grouping is in a position to step up
its "franchise" operations in Iran.
On the flip side, should Iran become too exposed in this new version of the
"war on terror", Tehran could move into the US's arms, seeking some form of
protection in return for compromises in its dealings with the US, especially
over its nuclear program.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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