Hezbollah keeps its eye on the ball
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Many years ago, French president Charles de Gaulle said, "France has
no friends; only interests." These words came to mind as Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah recently met with anti-Syrian Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a
man who has loudly been critical of Hezbollah, for the first time in three
years.
Meeting with Jumblatt, head of the Socialist Cooperative Party, raised eyebrows
in Lebanon on whether the leader of Hezbollah had changed after the June 7
elections. Many had expected the Hezbollah-led opposition to sweep parliament.
Gulf states were
holding their breath, preparing to cut off all aid to Lebanon in the event that
happened, believing that then, the small Mediterranean country would become a
launching pad for Iranian activities in the Middle East.
United States President Barack Obama had sent an indirect message to the
Lebanese during his June 4 speech in Cairo, saying that he would respect the
outcome of any democratic elections, even if they brought parties to power that
were at odds with the US.
France bluntly said that it would deal with any government, even if it was
packed with members of Hezbollah. The results of the elections proved
otherwise, however, with Hezbollah and its allies maintaining the status quo by
winning 57 seats, while the majority went to the pro-Western March 14
coalition.
Nicholas Blanford, the well-informed Beirut-based journalist, wrote: "The March
14 victory is a setback for Hezbollah which had hoped that an opposition win
would provide a protective seal around its military wing. Contrary to
scare-mongering rhetoric from some Israeli and Western officials, Hezbollah had
no desire or interest in assuming control of the state if the opposition had
triumphed."
Shortly after the elections, Nasrallah spoke to his supporters, saying he
accepted the election results "with sportsmanship". He then quickly added that
the results meant maintaining the status quo, and not a defeat for Hezbollah
since the party had won with tremendous ease all of its contested seats. By no
means did this mean that Hezbollah's popularity had waned, or that the party
was starting its long march into history.
Nasrallah warned, as he has repeatedly done since 2006, that any talk about
disarming Hezbollah was a red line that nobody could cross, regardless of the
election results. Members of March 14 - who had tried to tackle Hezbollah
militarily in May 2008, in vain - praised Nasrallah's calmness, which clearly
triggered positive vibrations throughout Lebanon.
A "gentleman's agreement" was seemingly reached in Lebanon, where Hezbollah
would accept the new administration (which will probably see Saad Hariri as
prime minister), while March 14 would incorporate Hezbollah - and its demands -
into the new cabinet.
Lebanese have seemingly grabbed at the perfect opportunity when everybody
generally involved in the Lebanese issue has been focused on the unrest in
Iran. Syria is preparing to turn a new leaf with the US, after Washington
announced this week that it would be sending a new ambassador to Damascus to
fill a post that has been vacant since 2005.
The Lebanese took the chance to settle their problems from within and build on
common ground between conflict parties, thus explaining the Jumblatt-Nasrallah
summit.
This proves that contrary to what many people thought, Nasrallah has not
changed after June 7. In his own mind - and in numbers throughout its
constituencies - Hezbollah did not lose the elections. The coalition, of which
Hezbollah was a member - did not win.
Nasrallah still gets to keep his arms, all 11 seats in parliament (and another
46 seats for his allies), in addition to the post of speaker, which on
Wednesday went to his friend and colleague Nabih Berri. A staunch ally of
Hezbollah, Berri has been head of the Lebanese parliament for nearly 20 years,
and legally speaking, since his group does not enjoy a majority any longer, the
post of speaker should go to a member of March 14.
But again, in the spirit of reconciliation, all parties decided to "side-step"
parliamentary norms and restored Berri to the post with 90 out of 128 votes.
His deputy, Farid Makari, a member of March 14, was also voted into office once
again. Berri's re-election pleased Nasrallah, as did a meeting shortly after
the elections between a Hezbollah parliamentarian and Javier Solana, the
European Union chief negotiator. If anything, this was proof that the EU still
takes Hezbollah very seriously.
Let us pretend that Israel were to withdraw from the occupied Sheba Farms in
what remains of 2009. What would the position of Nasrallah be? Theoretically,
the man would give up his arms - as the West has been calling for years - and
transform into the head of an unarmed political party, just like many Lebanese
leaders did after the civil war ended in 1990.
Anybody who knows Nasrallah well realizes that this is much smaller than the
grand ambitions of the 48-year-old leader. Some claim that he is bent on ruling
Lebanon. Many who know him, and understand Lebanese dynamics, realize that
Nasrallah, a smart and pragmatic man, would never try his luck at such a coup,
because no matter what, a Shi'ite cannot rule Lebanon and Nasrallah would never
think of upsetting the nation's delicate sectarian balance.
He might try to rule by proxy, through a Christian heavyweight like Michel
Aoun, but if this is the case, that dream vanished when Aoun lost his last
chance to become president in 2008. The next time the Lebanese go to the polls,
Aoun will be 78, certainly too old for presidential office, putting a damper on
Hezbollah's ambitions.
Others argue that Nasrallah is like a "lion in a canary's cage". Meaning, his
ambitions and dreams are much larger than the limited borders of Lebanon and
the Sheba Farms. Advocates of this theory claim that Nasrallah wants to become
a modern Saladin, resembling the ancient Muslim sultan who liberated Jerusalem.
If that were the case, the man would stop at nothing to achieve his goals.
Instead, Nasrallah is prepared to talk to Jumblatt - and practically everyone
else in Lebanon - to peacefully survive in the Lebanese system. Protecting his
weapons then, while also upholding Shi'ite rights, rather than running the
Lebanese state, is the real drive behind Nasrallah.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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