Maliki walks a tightrope in Washington
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Aside from all the expected rhetoric on Baghdad and Washington's
"strategic friendship", there were many layers to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki's visit to Washington last week.
For one thing, Maliki wants the United States to help him settle Iraq's debts
with Kuwait, which amount to an estimated US$16 billion. The massive debt was
incurred by Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion, but Maliki argues that as Iraq now
threatens none of its neighbors, the sanction is "no longer necessary".
He has been calling on Kuwait to follow the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which
has waived all of Iraq's $7 billion debt, and Saudi
Arabia, which pledged to cancel 80% of Iraq's more than $15 billion debt.
The request has repeatedly been turned down by Kuwait, which argues that Iraq
has 112.5 billion barrels (bbl) in proven oil reserves, and 3.115 trillion
cubic meters in proven gas reserves, compared to Kuwait's 96.5 bbl oil reserves
and 1.572 trillion cubic meters in gas reserves.
When meeting with United Nations secretary general Ban Ki Moon last week in New
York, Maliki pressed for lifting of Iraq's Chapter 7 status, which requires
Iraq to pay war reparations to Kuwait of 5% of its oil reserves under a UN
Security Council Resolution dating back to 1991.
According to Ali Dabbagh, spokesman for the Iraqi government, this deal
"handcuffs Iraq, restricts its sovereignty, and burdens it with the crimes of a
former regime".
Writers and politicians close to Maliki have been drawing parallels between
debts to Kuwait and the "war guilt clause" imposed on Germany after World War I
at the Versailles Treaty in 1919. Although Kaiser Wilhelm II was no longer in
power after the war, and the entire monarchy was abolished, consecutive German
governments had to pay heavily for a war they were not responsible for.
Under the infamous Article 231 of the Versailles Treaty, Germany was required
to pay the allies 226 billion Reichsmarks in gold - around US$750 billion in
today's money - enraging the German people, and eventually producing Adolf
Hitler. Many Iraqis are warning in private that if Kuwait's $16 billion debt is
not canceled, that it could transform Maliki or other future Iraqi leaders into
another Saddam Hussein. "Don't let that happen" was one message Maliki seemed
to be carrying to Barack Obama this week.
On another level, Maliki wants US and UN support to solve an upcoming problem
with Iraqi Kurds. During a honeymoon period with the Kurds in 2007, Maliki
promised to uphold Article 140 of the constitution, which calls for a
referendum in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk (which holds 13% of Iraq's reserves),
to see if its residents want to remain part of Iraq or merge with Iraqi
Kurdistan.
It seemed like the logical thing to do at the time, as Kurdish support was
vital for him to maintain a shaky cabinet coalition rocked by major walkouts by
Sunnis and fellow Shi'ites loyal to rebel leader Muqtada al-Sadr.
Not only did he cozy up to the Kurds, he also saw to it personally that Arabs
were transported out of Kirkuk - to increase the city's Kurdish population -
claiming Arabs had illegally been settled there (for the exact opposite
purpose) by Saddam. That honeymoon is now a thing of the past, and Maliki wants
to make sure that so is the promised referendum on Kirkuk.
The UN is supporting Maliki's argument, claiming that if such a referendum did
take place, it could ignite a civil war between Arabs and Kurds. Maliki could
not afford this civil strife, nor could he afford having Iran, Turkey, and
Syria - all of which oppose giving Kirkuk to Kurdistan - on the offensive.
The Iranians are already displeased with the prime minister's overtures to the
US, and last week lashed out at Maliki for failing to protect Iranian pilgrims
in Iraq. On July 21, heavily armed assailants attacked a bus carrying Iranian
pilgrims near the Iraqi city of Baquba, with seven killed and 31 wounded. The
attack drew an angry response from the highest level, with Grand Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei saying, "We expect the Iraqi government to seriously oppose such
crimes and to provide maximum security for the pilgrims to the holy shrines in
Iraq".
Shaking off the Kurdish burden, while continuing to appeal to Arabs and Iran,
was another objective of Maliki's visit to the US.
Maliki is walking a tightrope these days, trying to balance the interests of
Iran, the US, and his Arab neighborhood. One of the objectives of his
Washington trip, his first meeting with Obama since US troops withdrew from
Iraqi towns and cities on June 30, 2009, was to show the Arabs that he is now
being treated as an equal by the US, not as a stooge, as was the case under
George W Bush. Obama wants a real leader in Iraq, who can shoulder
responsibility for security, not a side-kick, and nobody understands that
better than Maliki.
Obama does not have political benchmarks for Maliki to meet, and is not going
to carry a big stick and threaten to remove him from office if he does not
abide by the American agenda. The Iraqi leader believes that contrary to what
many people believe, Obama is not interested in Iraq, as Bush was.
Maliki believes Obama is focused on Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, which
would give Iraqi leaders room to maneuver away from American dictates. One US
official said, "We are not going to be dictating to the Iraqis what they need
to do. The main focus will be to stress the importance of a comprehensive
long-term partnership that goes beyond security."
Once Maliki's image is transformed in Washington, he will be able to market
himself in different manner to ordinary Iraqis, who need time to forget that he
was originally brought to power in 2006 by the United States. If he gets Obama
to deliver on the issue of Kuwaiti debts, he would score points at home with
ordinary Iraqi citizens. If he manages to get Obama to treat him as a fully
fledged Iraqi leader, and not as a narrow-minded Shi'ite politician - as many
Bush officials viewed him - he can score points in the Arab neighborhood.
Arab nations' regional economic and political support is vital for the upcoming
months in Iraq, especially as the country prepares for parliamentary elections
in early 2010. Legitimacy, relief of war debts, and respect were what Maliki
was really seeking this week in Washington.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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