Ahmadinejad faces his toughest test
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Embattled Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad faces daunting domestic and
foreign challenges as he begins the second four-year term of his presidency.
Analysts say he must tread a careful path of diplomacy to survive the dangers
ahead.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei endorsed Ahmadinejad's re-election
on Monday, calling June's controversial election result a national verdict on
the president's record. In Khamenei's words, the poll was a "vote for the
productive and dignified discourse of Islamic revolution; a vote on
anti-hegemony and brave resistance to the world's hegemonic powers; a vote for
the struggle against poverty and corruption and for simple lifestyles,
closeness to people and empathy for the have-nots."
In turn, Ahmadinejad promised at the endorsement ceremony to
"invite all for active participation and planning". Experts believe this could
mean Ahmadinejad's cabinet, to be introduced within the next two weeks, will be
a a more inclusive and politically heterogeneous body.
The struggle over the makeup of the next cabinet is shaped in part by the
supreme leader's decision to play a more active role in governmental affairs.
Khamenei's recent intervention led to the removal of Ahmadinejad's pick for
vice president, Esfandiar Rahim Mashai. Some Khamenei loyalists, including
Mohsen Esmaili, a jurisprudent at the Council of Guardians, have left subtle
signals that the supreme leader's endorsement, or tanfiz, is not a
one-shot deal but rather continuous support that can only be withdrawn by the
leader himself.
Already on the defensive for his delayed reaction to the leader's letter
regarding Mashai, Ahmadinejad must now work to prove his loyalty to Khamenei.
At the same time, he must try to maintain - perhaps even increase - his margin
of independence as the head of the executive branch. His first attempt at
re-establishing his independence was the symbolic reappointment of Mashai as
his chief of staff after being forced by the leader and his own hardline
supporters to drop Mashai as his first vice president.
In addition to confidence-building measures at the top, Ahmadinejad's other
pressing priority is to build trust at the base of society. Experts feel the
lingering dispute over the election results and the widening gap between
Ahmadinejad and important aspects of Iran's civil society, including the
Iranian intelligentsia, must be addressed.
"Mr Ahmadinejad has a big challenge in finding suitable personalities for his
next cabinet in part because some who are qualified for ministerial posts based
on their merits unfortunately do not meet the political criteria because they
have opposed him," said a Tehran University political scientist on the
condition of anonymity.
Some technocrats, who are aligned with the group known as Executives of
Construction, support former president, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani,
who declined to attend the endorsement ceremony on Monday. Former president
Mohammad Khatami and the reformist presidential hopefuls, Mir Hossain Mousavi
and Mehdi Karrubi, also failed to show up to support Ahmadinejad's electoral
victory.
But another presidential candidate, Mohsen Rezai, who has conceded defeat and
is the secretary of the Expediency Council headed by Rafsanjani, is poised to
play a mediating role. Rezai has called on the judiciary to hold a "parallel
trial" for what he calls "rogue agents" who violently suppressed the
post-election riots.
A similar endorsement ceremony will take place on Wednesday in parliament, or
Majlis. Depending on the number of absent deputies - so far only 12 have
announced they will boycott it - the event could be a timely boost for
Ahmadinejad. The newly re-elected leader will be asked to address the
complaints of many MPs who feel his first term showed a callous disregard for
the will of parliament.
Relations between Ahmadinejad and Ali Larijani, speaker of the Majlis, are
poor. In light of Larijani's close rapport with the supreme leader, much
depends on the ability of the two men to work out some of the problems between
them to address pending legislation.
One proposal before the Majlis suggests streamlining government bureaucracies
by merging some ministries with government organizations; a move that some
experts believe could cause tensions between the executive and the legislative
branches of government. There are also a host of foreign policy issues, such as
Iran's US$280 million loan to Bolivia, which is opposed by a number of MPs.
Ahmadinejad is caught between factional politics and an unstable environment at
home, and an approaching foreign policy crisis over the nuclear standoff with
the international community of Tehran's uranium-enrichment program. Experts
believe he has no choice but to tackle the sources of his political weakness at
home and abroad.
In his speech at Monday's endorsement ceremony, Ahmadinejad echoed the leader's
sentiment on the elections' significance with respect to the "discourse of
Islamic revolution" and went on to call for Iran's "active involvement in
global management".
This may indicate there will be no significant departure from his first-term
focus on such issues as a "strategic opening to Latin America" or his "looking
East" approach. A clue to the significance of the latter is Iran's economic
ties with India. For example, an Indian company's delivery of gasoline to Iran
could be disrupted if the United States adopted as law a proposed bill that
penalizes foreign companies for selling fuel to Iran.
According to Tehran energy expert Nersi Ghorban, the bill does not close the
loopholes for "third parties", such as energy brokers to funnel gasoline to
Iran in the aftermath of US gasoline sanctions. Still, it is a sure bet that
Iran's consumers will be paying higher prices at the pumps.
A gasoline sanction on Iran in October or November is a foregone conclusion, in
the belief of many Iran analysts. This timeframe corresponds with an informal
two-month deadline on nuclear talks that has been given to Iran by the US and
its Western allies.
Iran is eager to avoid this, which is why the Foreign Ministry and the Supreme
National Security Council are fine-tuning a new "package" that would present
concrete ideas about how to end the nuclear standoff in a mutually satisfying
manner. Analysts predict that Iran may need to re-adopt the Additional Protocol
of the International Atomic Energy Agency by late September to stop new
sanctions by the "Iran Six" nations (Britain, the United States, France, China,
Russia and Germany).
With little time to waste, the second Ahmadinejad administration must develop a
deft nuclear policy, even as domestic instability continues to weaken its
mandate. The national consensus behind the firebrand president who spoke with
authority on foreign policy issues for the past four years has vanished. In its
place is a new, divisive political environment ill-suited for bold and
effective foreign policy.
For Ahmadinejad, it is truly a hard path ahead.
Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New
Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) . For his Wikipedia entry,
click here. His
latest book,
Reading In Iran Foreign Policy After September 11 (BookSurge Publishing
, October 23, 2008) is now available.
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