Since the Iranian revolution of 1979, major changes have emerged every 10 years
in Iran. In 1979, the Iranian people, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini,
forced out the shah as the country shifted from a monarchy to a theocratic
republic.
Ten years later, in 1989, the leader of the Islamic revolution passed away and
was replaced by the current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Ten years after that,
in 1999, Iran was rocked by students protesting in support of more freedoms.
Now, exactly 10 years later, up to a million Iranians have taken to the streets
after the June 12 election publicly questioning, "Where is my vote?" Despite
the mass public protests, however, it is what
is going on behind the scenes within the leadership that has the potential to
evoke real change.
The 2,500-year-old country, which has a history of democratic movements, has
passed through two revolutions in recent memory, the most recent of which is
the basis for Iran's Islamic Republic. Today, however, there is a growing
divide within the leadership between the reformists who want to lead Iran
towards democracy, openness and freedom, and ultra-hardliners who want to take
the country back centuries before the revolution, to the time of the Prophet
Mohammad.
While both groups emerged out of the revolution, the hardliners - who claim
their authority and legitimacy from the late Khomeini - seem actually to be
going against the very principals of the revolution he led.
While Khomeini spoke about the power of the people and the legitimacy of Iran's
leaders as given through the will of the people, hardline leaders such as
Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi are working behind the scenes to guide Iran from its
path towards democracy back to the time when Islam was first emerging.
In the early 1980s, Khomeini warned against radical leaders and cautioned that
people in power should remember where their legitimacy came from. He said at
the time, "It is necessary for me to give some brotherly advice to the
respectable future leader or council of leadership and sincerely remind them
that in the religions of the book and in great Islam, leaders or the leader do
not have any innate value and should not, God forbid, become afflicted with
pride and arrogance."
The regime's crackdown in response to the protesters shows that the current
Iranian leadership is not following the guidelines of the Islamic Republic's
founder.
Many of the same individuals who helped lead the revolution are now working to
take the country back to the time before the revolution - before even the
monarchy - to the time when Islam was first emerging. These same leaders are
believed to be working discretely to change the leadership of the Islamic
Republic from a theocratic republic to a theocratic dictatorship.
Studying Iran's history reveals it is often what is out of the public eye that
has the ability to evoke change within the country. The protests of 1999
garnered massive attention, but resulted in merely that. The outcome of recent
protests against the re-election of Mahmud Ahmadinejad for a second four-year
term remain unclear; but they have undoubtedly revealed a divide within the
leadership and brought into question the legitimacy of not only the Ahmadinejad
regime, but for the first time, the role of the supreme leader and the system
itself.
It remains unknown, however, whether these public protests and the increasing
and public division within the leadership will evoke a real change in the
system.
Much of the future direction of Iran is dependent on the growing rift between
two groups. One is led by former presidents Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani and
Mohammad Khatami, former presidential candidates Mir Hossain Mousavi and Mehdi
Karrubi, and Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. The other side is led by Khamenei and
firebrand Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi and his hardline hojjatieh (a
semi-clandestine, radically anti-Sunni organization).
Rafsanjani, who is currently the head of the Assembly of Experts - the only
group that has the constitutional ability to remove the supreme leader from his
position - was recently in the holy city of Qom leading a hushed meeting with
the Assembly of Experts of which the subject of the meeting is believed to have
been focused on the role of the velayat-e faqhi.
The velayat-e faqhi, a post held only in Iran, has come to be accepted
as the supreme leadership held by a single religious leader. Many Iranian
leaders, however, argue that the post was originally held by Khomeini, but that
the position - as outlined by the constitution - does not specifically call for
one leader. They go on to claim that Khomeini, as the founder of the Islamic
revolution, held the post as a single man, but that the constitutional position
could be interpreted as being allotted to a group of religious leaders in an
attempt to move the country towards a more democratic system. Khomeini himself
referred to the position as being filled by either one leader or a council of
leaders.
This issue, which is now being debated within the leadership itself, has caused
an unprecedented rift between the mullahs of Iran. Reformist leaders such as
Rafsanjani, Khatami and Mousavi are believed to want to move the country
towards a more democratic system and are reportedly calling for the position to
be filled (as the current supreme leader is reportedly ill) by a group of
religious leaders.
Khamenei and Yazdi - who runs a seminary in Qom - are calling for the position
to continue to be filled by one person. They are also rumored to be working
behind the scenes to shift Iran away from its movements toward democracy and
its foundation as a republic, towards a hardline dictatorial Islamic theocracy.
Many leaders in Yazdi's camp are believed to be grooming Khamenei's son
Mojtaba, who was this month honored with the title of ayatollah, as Khamenei's
successor.
Rafsanjani is well aware of this. During Friday prayers late last month,
Rafsanjani said, "If the Islamic and republican sides of the revolution are not
preserved, it means that we have forgotten the principles of the revolution."
Rafsanjani went on to recall that his mentor, Khomeini, said that the "people's
will" must be done, something Rafsanjani has accused the current regime of
ignoring.
Yazdi, however, seems to want to do away with the republican nature of the
regime, and some feel he has blatantly disregarded the will of the people. He
has been quoted as saying, "If anyone insults the Islamic sanctities, Islam has
permitted for his blood to be spilled, no court needed either;" and "It does
not matter what the people think; they are ignorant sheep." Insiders claim he
wants to radically transform the country and take it back to the time when
Islam was first emerging. Yazdi goes much farther than the hardline leader of
the Islamic revolution, to the extent that Khomeini actually banned Yazdi's
hojjatieh group in 1983, saying "they cannot run even a bakery, let alone a
country".
In 1990, a year after Khomeini's death and Khamenei's takeover as supreme
leader, the group reportedly re-emerged and began advocating an Islamic regime
in which the velayat-e faqhi was an unelected leader selected by god not
elected by the people. It is this same hardline leader who is the spiritual
leader of Ahmadinejad.
Freedoms enshrined in the constitution are these days being withheld from the
people, suggesting a move away from the fundamentals of the Islamic revolution
and towards an even more regressive form of government. For example, Article 24
of the Iranian constitution states: "Publications and the press have freedom of
expression except when it is detrimental to the fundamental principles of Islam
or the rights of the public." Yet the regime continues to censor the press and
crack down on freedom of expression. Simply wearing green or chanting "Allah-o
Akbar" can now led to detention.
According to Article 25, "The inspection of letters and the failure to deliver
them, the recording and disclosure of telephone conversations, the disclosure
of telegraphic and telex communications, censorship, or the willful failure to
transmit them, eavesdropping, and all forms of covert investigation are
forbidden, except as provided by law." Yet, according to reports, the Nokia
Siemens Networks sold to Tehran is now being used for exactly those purposes
against the Iranian people.
In another example, Article 27 states: "Public gatherings and marches may be
freely held, provided arms are not carried and that they are not detrimental to
the fundamental principles of Islam." But after the June 17 Friday prayers,
tens of thousands of demonstrators were met with baton-wielding Basiji militia
and riot police armed with tear gas.
Observers believe that Iran's hardline leaders, including Yazdi, Ali and
Mojtaba Khamenei and their followers, are currently working behind closed doors
to drag the Islamic Republic back to the 7th century, away from democracy and
in the direction of an absolute theocracy.
The millions of Iranians who risked their lives to join protests and call for
their rights are not enough to stop this alleged political shift. It is up to
Iran's reformist leaders who have gained legitimacy from the Iranian people
themselves.
Iran cannot afford to wait another 10 years.
Grace Nasri is the assistant editor of an international Iranian newspaper
based in Washington, DC. She received her master's degree in international
relations from New York University. Her most recent articles can be found at
the Digest on Middle East Studies and at openDemocracy.net.
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