As US fades, Iran ups the ante in Iraq
By Shahir Shahidsaless
In the chaos following the disputed June presidential elections in Iran,
journalist Spencer Ackerman reported that the administration of United States
President Barack Obama "insisted that it would not interfere with the struggle
for power between regime-backed President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and the thousands
of demonstrators who contend the election was stolen".
It didn't take long, however, for the world to learn that this policy was
quickly fine-tuned and adjusted to Iran's expanding socio-political crisis.
Four days after the election, according to a report released by Reuters, the US
State Department admitted that "it had contacted the social networking service,
Twitter, to urge it to delay a planned
upgrade that would have cut daytime services to Iranians who are disputing
their election".
The New York Times also confirmed that the so-called "Twitter Revolution" was
helping supporters of defeated reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, and
claimed a Twitter account was responsible for "online attacks" with the aim "to
crash government websites by overwhelming them with traffic".
Following the instructions posted on Twitter, and in conjunction with a
relentless 24-hour effort led by some Iranian-run websites based in the US,
almost all major government websites in Iran were down for several days.
The Iranian government battled back by filtering websites affiliated with
Mousavi, blocking popular Western social and political sites and electronically
jamming the BBC, the Voice of America and Iranian opposition TV channels
broadcast from Los Angeles.
Confronting the censorship of what one senator called a "cruel regime", the US
Senate passed The Victims of Iranian Censorship Act, known as VOICE, which
provides US$50 million "to support the Iranian people as they seek, receive and
impart information ... through any media without interference". VOICE is the
first move by a foreign government to openly challenge the Iranian government's
filtering of websites and its heavy censorship of TV stations.
During and after the post-election crackdown on the protests, the Iranian
government constantly claimed there were links between the riots and foreign
powers. Most observers considered this to be baseless; a claim manufactured to
repress the protesters. But on August 9, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
broke ranks with the administration's official stance - to stay out of the
dispute between the protesters and the Iranian government - and said the US was
"doing a lot behind the scenes" to help the protesters.
This statement caught many observers by surprise, and gave credibility to the
Iranian government's claim. Suddenly, US interference was no longer just a
conspiracy theory. The ultra-conservatives in Iran immediately picked up the
statement and repeatedly used it to justify their heavy-handed clampdown on
dissent.
In his speech delivered on August 26, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
accused the "enemies" and "the main plotters" who "used all their media and
electronic capabilities and intensified the presence of their agents at the
scene to destroy the glorious event [very high rate of public participation in
the election]".
For almost two months, while the Iranian government was facing the rumblings of
opposition and was busy stifling the voice of dissent, the US used the
opportunity to step up pressure on Iran. Threatening statements underscoring
the September deadline for Iran to respond to the US invitation of dialogue
over the nuclear issue, took over Washington's line towards Tehran. The Iranian
government didn't react.
Ahmadinejad fiercely attacked "enemy states" in a fiery speech before the
Majlis (parliament). "The Iranian nation has for 30 years endured the actions
of enemy states with magnanimity, but if you do not desist from your
interference, [Iran] will slap you in the face so hard that you will not be
able to find your way back home," he said on August 16, adding, "The 'sir' who
speaks of change [Obama], what does he want to change?"
The Iranian political system and Khamenei's credibility have been damaged
locally and internationally by the post-election events. Still, the ruling bloc
has been able to contain the unrest, albeit at a relatively high cost. Although
the atmosphere remains tense, the mass street protests and the severity of the
pro-reform threat have faded.
To view the existing situation in Iran as an opportunity and to build policies
based on this perception, experts believe, may lead to unpredictable
consequences.
David Ignatius, a renowned American political writer, concluded in his article,
"Creative Opportunism on Iran", that the current situation in Iran was a
"golden moment". If this assessment influences policymakers in the US, however,
aggressive moves could push the Iranian government past restraint and things
could get out of control.
This is where the situation in Iraq comes in. Recent bombings at the Iraqi
Finance and Foreign ministries killed 100 people and wounded hundreds more.
This was just one of many bombings that has deteriorated Iraq's security in the
past two months. In several of these incidents, Iran's involvement has been
alleged.
There are contradicting reports about the perpetrators of these attacks. In a
televised statement, an ex-member of dictator Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party
confessed to organizing the Finance Ministry attack but did not mention
anything about the Foreign Ministry bombing. Later, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki blamed an alliance between the Ba'ath Party and al-Qaeda.
Events took a striking turn last week when the powerful Iraqi intelligence
chief (Mokhaberat), Mohammed Al-Shahwani, resigned in the wake of the bombings.
An article by Ignatius in the Washington Post claims Shahwani quit last week
"because of what he viewed as Maliki's attempts to undermine his service and
allow Iranian spies to operate freely". Ignatius also quotes an unnamed Iraqi
intelligence source that "forensic evidence points to a possible Iranian role".
The Iraqi newspaper al-Zaman also claimed that Shahwani's resignation was
because he submitted information to Iraqi officials regarding the involvement
of Iranians in the bombings, but was ignored. These accusations are being
leveled while tension is rising between Syria and Iraq over the handover of two
ex-members of the ousted Ba'ath party who have alleged links to the attacks.
Syria has stated that the allegations are fabricated for "political goals".
In another development, a new Iranian-backed Shi'ite coalition of five major
fundamentalist parties, some other small parties and some independent
individuals, has been created to pave the way for a win in January 2010
elections. This coalition is named The Iraqi National Alliance.
Observers believe that if Maliki doesn't join this group, he will have little
chance at re-election. Whether Maliki's Da'wa Party, which has close ties to
Tehran, will also join the coalition is not yet clear. In either case, 2010
will almost certainly mark the official rise of Iran as a foreign power in
Iraq.
According to the Washington Post, a top Iraqi intelligence officer said that in
five years, absent the US military, Iraq would be a colony of Iran. This is an
exaggeration, but it is true that while US forces are increasingly becoming
spectators in Iraq, Iran is systematically increasing its influence.
If Washington, as many analysts believe, has decided to take advantage of
Iran's internal unrest to push the government on the nuclear issue, there is a
crucial point to be considered: the arena of confrontation won't be picked by
the US alone. When push comes to shove, the Iranian government will expand
confrontation to multiple fronts, and Iraq will be its first choice.
In its latest issue, Sobhe Sadegh, the official press organ of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps, responded to Obama's engagement policy with Iran by
claiming, "We don't think globally and act locally. We think and act globally."
Shahir Shahidsaless is a Canadian-Iranian political analyst writing
mainly in Farsi. He has a Bachelor of Science degree in engineering, and has
devoted the past 10 years predominantly to researching and writing about the
Middle East and international affairs for Farsi-speaking magazines, papers and
news websites both inside and outside the country. He has authored a book,
which has been published in Iran and Germany. He can be contacted at shahir@iranamerica.com
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