|
|
|
|
A MANUFACTURED CRISIS, Part 3
The case for Iran
By Jack A Smith
PART 1: The
facts of the matter
PART 2: It's
sanctions or bust
There have been a number of reports this year that Iran is not constructing
weapons. For example, "Intelligence Agencies Say No New Nukes in Iran" was the
headline on a Newsweek article on September 16 that read in part: The
US intelligence community is reporting to the White House that Iran has not
restarted its nuclear-weapons development program, two counter-proliferation
officials tell Newsweek. US agencies had previously said that Tehran halted the
program in 2003.
The officials, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information,
said that US intelligence agencies have informed policymakers at
the White House and other agencies that the status of Iranian work on
development and production of a nuclear bomb has not changed since the formal
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's "Nuclear Intentions and
Capabilities" in November 2007. Public portions of that report stated that US
intelligence agencies had "high confidence" that, as of early 2003, Iranian
military units were pursuing development of a nuclear bomb, but that in the
fall of that year Iran "halted its nuclear weapons program". The document said
that while US agencies believed the Iranian government "at a minimum is keeping
open the option to develop nuclear weapons", US intelligence as of mid-2007
still had "moderate confidence" that it had not restarted weapons-development
efforts.
One of the two officials said that the [Barack] Obama administration has now
worked out a system in which intelligence agencies provide top policymakers,
including the president, with regular updates on intelligence judgments like
the conclusions in the 2007 Iran NIE. According to the two officials, the
latest update to policymakers has been that as of now - two years after the
period covered by the 2007 NIE - US intelligence agencies still believe Iran
has not resumed nuclear-weapons development work. "That's the
conclusion, but it's one that - like every other - is constantly checked and
reassessed, both to take account of new information and to test old
assumptions," one of the officials told Newsweek. In this connection, National
Intelligence Director Dennis Blair - the insider's insider - testified before
Congress in February that there was no evidence Iran is producing the highly
enriched uranium required for nuclear weapons.
The September-October issue of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists contained an
interview with Mohamed ElBaradei, the retiring long-time director of the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in which he declared, "We have not
seen concrete evidence that Tehran has an ongoing nuclear weapons program ...
But somehow, many people are talking about how Iran's nuclear program is the
greatest threat to the world.
"In many ways, I think the threat has been hyped. Yes, there's concern about
Iran's future intentions and Iran needs to be more transparent with the IAEA
and the international community ... But the idea that we'll wake up tomorrow
and Iran will have a nuclear weapon is an idea that isn't supported by the
facts as we have seen them so far."
The September 21 issue of Newsweek reported that "quarrels concerning the
ultimate aim of Iran's secretive nuke program have become so heated that some
UN officials are making comparisons to the proliferation of misinformation in
the runup to the US invasion of Iraq." The article continued: In a
private e-mail sent last week to nuclear experts and obtained by Newsweek,
Tariq Rauf, a senior official with the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency,
wrote that the mainstream media are repeating mistakes from 2003, when they
"carried unsubstantiated stories on Iraq and WMD - the same mistakes are being
repeated re IAEA and Iran." Rauf added that "the hype is likely originating
from certain (known) sources." The message does not specify the sources, but US
and European officials have previously accused Israel of exaggerating Iran's
nuclear progress. On February 22, India's mass circulation
daily The Hindu reported, "Iran has not converted the low-grade uranium that it
has produced into weapon-grade uranium, inspectors belonging to the
International Atomic Energy Agency have said. The Austrian Press Agency quoted
an IAEA expert as saying that the uranium substances that Iran has produced at
its Natanz enrichment facility have been carefully recorded and remote cameras
have been installed to supervise part of the stockpile. 'If the Iranians intend
to transport these uranium substances to a secret location for further
processing, the agency's inspectors will find out,' he said. The expert added
that 'so far, Iran has carried out good cooperation with us in relevant
verifications'."
The French news agency Agence France-Presse reported on September 20 that
"Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today denied the West's charge
that Tehran aims to develop nuclear weapons under a covert program, insisting
the Islamic Republic bans such activity. 'They falsely accuse [Iran] of
producing nuclear weapons. We fundamentally reject nuclear weapons and prohibit
the production and the use of nuclear weapons,' Khamenei said in a speech
broadcast by state television. 'They know themselves that it's not true ... but
it is part of Iran-phobia policy that controls the behavior of these arrogant
governments today'."
In our view, Iran is no danger to Israel, the United States or the Sunni Arab
world. It wants to protect its revolution, independence and what it considers
its precious Islamic Republic. The Mahmud Ahmadinejad government and Ayatollah
Khamenei fully understand that heavy US sanctions are capable of causing
extreme agony for the masses of its people and would lead to a weakening of the
state. Tehran is also aware that if it produces one nuclear weapon it may be
mercilessly attacked.
Iran's leadership is not suicidal, and is well aware that if Tehran not only
produced a weapon but actually launched a nuclear missile toward Israel, the
massive retaliation from the US and Israel would obliterate most of Iranian
society, whether or not its weapon was deflected by the US anti-missile system
that the Obama administration is now going to place aboard naval ships in the
Mediterranean. (President George W Bush wanted to deploy the system to Poland
and the Czech Republic to threaten Russia, not to defend Europe against an
Iranian attack. By moving the anti-ballistic missiles south, Obama achieved two
objectives: he got Russia off his back, while assuring Israel of yet another
layer of US protection.)
For all its fiery international rhetoric, Iran's leadership is essentially
cautious, and its military intentions are defensive. The country hasn't started
a war in almost 200 years, and the Iranian people have no desire to replicate
the horror of the defensive war they waged against the Iraqi aggressor for most
of the 1980s.
Developing nuclear weapons in today's world makes a country a recognized power,
and is a great defense against imperial aggression, particularly for a country
that has long been on Washington's hit list and narrowly avoided an invasion
during the Bush years.
But we believe that Iran - even if it knows how to produce a nuclear bomb -
will not weaponize because it wishes to demonstrate its adherence to the
nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and because it desires to survive the
hostility of America and Israel. At the same time, Iran does not intend to be
humiliated and hampered by hugely excessive restrictions and intrusive
surveillance that is not applied to other countries in compliance with the NPT.
Nor does it intend to turn tail because of threats from those who object to its
support of the Palestinian people and its opposition to imperialism.
If the United States genuinely wishes to resolve its dispute with Iran, it is
possible to do so rationally and without violence. But this means Obama must
treat Iran as an equal, accept the reality that Tehran and Washington see the
world differently, and negotiate in good faith.
Most Americans and virtually the rest of the world have high hopes about Obama,
especially after the Bush administration. We certainly recognize the
improvement but have doubts, not high hopes, when it comes to the direction of
American foreign policy. We see little difference, other than the cosmetic,
between the Obama administration's international strategy and the strategy of
American global domination and hegemony based on military power that has
prevailed in Washington in its present incarnation since the end of World War
II.
We'd like nothing better than to be proven wrong. But that would take the
development of a massive progressive movement in this country, focused in this
instance on world peace, the equality of peoples, and justice for all, a not
unreasonable goal worth struggling for, in our view. And as far as nuclear
proliferation is concerned, the only true solution is total nuclear
disarmament, a position, by the way, that Iran appears to be putting forth
these days.
Jack A Smith is editor of the Hudson Valley Activist Newsletter in New
York State and the former editor of the Guardian Newsweekly (US). He may be
reached at jacdon@earthlink.net
(Copyright 2009 Jack A Smith.)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
All material on this
website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written
permission.
© Copyright 1999 - 2009 Asia Times
Online (Holdings), Ltd.
|
|
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong
Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
|
|
|
|
