DAMASCUS - Speculation is growing that Israel plans to release
veteran Palestinian nationalist Marwan Barghouti from jail - along with
400 prisoners - in exchange for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli Defense Force soldier
held in captivity since 2006.
This summer, Israel released a Lebanese militant, Samir Qantar, known as the
"dean" of Arab prisoners in Israeli jails, who had been arrested red-handed
while carrying out a military operation within Israeli territory in 1979.
Operation Naser led to the killing of five Israelis, and an Israeli court had
sentenced him to 542 years
in prison (99 years for each victim) and another 47 years for attacking an
Israeli officer during negotiations.
Consecutive Israeli premiers had vowed never to release Qantar, only to free
him last July, along with the remains of nearly 200 Arabs, in exchange for the
bodies of two Israeli soldiers taken by Hezbollah in the summer of 2006. The
release of Qantar broke a psychological barrier within Israeli society. If he
was pardoned, then anybody can get released from Israeli prisons, even
Barghouti.
Barghouti, 50, is the charismatic head of the Fatah movement in the West Bank.
He was convicted in 2002 of killing five Israelis and sentenced to 165 years in
prison (five consecutive life terms and an additional 40 years). The idea of a
deal - Barghouti in exchange for Shalit - began as far back as 2007.
The story started to make more sense as the months dragged on for Palestinian
President Mahmoud Abbas, proving that he was completely incapable of making
peace, or building a state in the Palestinian Territories, due to his
permanently scarred relations with Hamas.
Abbas' inability to call for an early ceasefire in Gaza during the war of 2008,
and his reaction to the Goldstone Report in September, slashed his approval
ratings to an unprecedented one digit - the lowest-ever for a Palestinian
leader since 1948. Posters of the man began to appear in his own fiefdom in the
West Bank and not only Gaza, saying: "To the trash bin of history, traitor!"
Last month, the aging Abbas announced that he would not be seeking another term
as president, having failed to bring law and order, or peace and unity, to the
Palestinians.
What broke Abbas - better known by his war name Abu Mazen - were the failed
promises of US President Barack Obama. Abu Mazen was counting down the days
until George W Bush would leave the White House, knowing that he could not sell
his people any moderation as long as the neo-conservatives were running America
- especially after the war on Gaza in December 2008.
He famously once told a veteran Palestinian journalist: "Tell the Americans to
stop showering me with praise in public. The more they do that, the more they
embarrass me with my people." Abu Mazen then told the Palestinians to have
faith in Obama, who promised to address the issue of Middle East peace and
bring justice to the Palestinians.
During his June 4 speech in Cairo, Obama twice made reference to the Holy
Koran, then noted, "It is also undeniable that the Palestinian people - Muslims
and Christians - have suffered in pursuit of a homeland ... They endure the
daily humiliations - large and small - that come with occupation. So let there
be no doubt: the situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable. America
will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for dignity,
opportunity and a state of their own." He then added, "The United States does
not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements."
Five months down the road, the Palestinians claim that none of that has been
achieved. Not only that but the Americans seemed to have changed course on
settlements, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently saying that
halting settlements was no longer a prerequisite for resumption of peace talks.
According to top negotiator Saeb Erekat, there has been a 28% increase in
colonies in the West Bank under Obama, and 37% of that increase can be found in
occupied Jerusalem.
According to sources close to Abu Mazen, the Palestinian president "is fed up"
- and with due right. Obama after all has left him very little room to
maneuver. He wants him to reign in the Palestinian Territories, yet cannot
apply enough pressure on Israel to get Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to
change course vis-a-vis peace with the Palestinians. Speaking during a state
visit to Argentina, he accused Obama of "doing nothing" to revive peace talks
in the region.
If Abbas tries to sign a deal that is not properly delivered by the US, against
the wishes of the Palestinians, radicals on the Palestinian street will
undoubtedly kill him. The story of former president Anwar Sadat of Egypt speaks
volumes of how militants act against a leader who sign unpopular peace deals
with Israel: Sadat was assassinated in 1981.
Unlike Abbas, who has always ridiculed militants and looked down upon them,
Barghouti is very popular with young men on the streets of Gaza and the West
Bank. He has plenty of war medals on his uniform, reminding Palestinians of
Yasser Arafat during his heyday, and if he decides to sign peace, nobody will
accuse him of treason or question his nationalist credentials. Barghouti is a
Saladin - the greatest warrior of Islam - when compared to Abbas or the aging
and corrupted leaders of Fatah.
He undoubtedly is a unifying force for the Palestinians (much needed in the
weeks ahead) yet many within the upper echelons of power in Ramallah would want
to keep him in jail - at least for now - because if he is set free, he would
certainly run for the next Palestinian presidential elections and win with
ease, drowning the ambitions of presidential hopefuls from Fatah and Hamas.
That might explain why after insisting that the elections take place on January
24, Abbas changed course in late November, postponing them to a later date that
is yet to be set. That postponement could spell disaster for the Palestinians,
given that they are still sharply divided between the Hamas-led government in
the Gaza Strip, and the Fatah-led one in the West Bank. It would lead to an
incredible constitutional vacuum since the terms of both Abbas and his
parliament would have expired, giving lawlessness the upper hand in the
Palestinian Territories.
Meanwhile, Hamas has surprised observers by calling for "direct and open"
dialogue with the US. This was announced by Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyya
when meeting US doctors visiting Gaza in mid-November. Haniyya, whose
government is considered illegitimate by the West Bank administration of Abbas,
said that Hamas was willing to sit down for direct talks with the Obama
administration. This administration, he noted, had heralded a new positive mood
into the Arab world, and now was the time to talk peace with the Middle East.
Anyone familiar with the history of Hamas realized how groundbreaking his
statements were - because they signaled a departure from the radical days when
Hamas refused anything short of the 1948 borders of Palestine, and wanted to
completely annihilate the entire State of Israel. Haniyya, who had no previous
contacts with the US, was seemingly telling Obama: "The days of Mahmoud Abbas
are numbered. Come talk to Hamas. You can do business with us - and unlike
Abbas, who is incapable of creating either peace or war - we at Hamas, can
deliver."
Hamas realizes that if the US was convinced to sit down and talk with Arafat,
after two decades of calling him a terrorist, then Hamas can also swallow its
pride and have constructive dialogue with its own leadership. Hamas wants to
market itself as an alternative interlocutor to Abbas and Fatah. The situation
now boils down to two basic elements: Hamas being willing to engage with the US
over peace, and Abbas having lost faith in the US. It is highly unlikely that
Obama will start any serious dialogue with Hamas - even if he wished - because
of a troublesome US Congress and infuriated Israeli public.
Yet perhaps the Israelis have decided to finally set Barghouti free, reasoning
that having a president who can deliver is much better than a helpless man like
Abbas - or a member of Hamas at the presidential palace in Ramallah, dealing
perhaps - even if not in the immediate future - with the US.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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