Maliki makes his move on Kirkuk issue
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will soon visit the northern
district of Kurdistan, aiming to sign a deal with Kurdish President Massoud
Barzani regarding the future of the Peshmerga, the Kurdish militia.
According to the deal, the Baghdad government will recognize and thereby
legitimize the Kurdish militia and, in turn, the Kurdish government will
release money collected from taxes and tariffs that it has so far withheld from
the central government. This also means that salaries and pensions of the
90,000-man Peshmerga, previously paid for by the Kurdistan government, will
become the responsibility of the Maliki government.
Is the Maliki visit purely domestic, aimed at diverting attention
from the recent bombings in Baghdad and creating allies for the prime minister
ahead of the March 2010 elections? Or is it a result of a recent US declaration
supporting implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, which calls
for a referendum in the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, to see whether its inhabitants
want to remain part of Iraq or join the district of Iraqi Kurdistan? Kurdistan
already has 10-15% of Iraq’s oil reserves, while Kirkuk alone holds as much as
25%, meaning that if the Kurds get to incorporate it, they will control no less
than 40% of oil reserves in Iraq.
That referendum should have been held two years ago, but has been continually
delayed by the central government, which fears Iraq's Arab Shi'ites and Sunnis
would never tolerate it, and nor would regional players Iran, Turkey, Saudi
Arabia and Syria.
Maliki cuddled up to the Kurds in 2007, after losing some of his principal
Sunni and Shi'ite allies, promising to uphold Article 140, to remain on the
good side of Iraqi Kurds. He also indirectly sponsored the transfer of Arabs
from within Kirkuk (there are 12,000 Arab families in the city) to other parts
of Iraq ahead of the proposed referendum, claiming that they had been brought
there illegally by Saddam Hussein to outnumber Kurds in the city.
These gestures by Maliki helped keep his cabinet coalition alive at a time when
heavyweights such as the Sadrists, the Iraqi National List and the Iraqi
Accordance Front were no longer dealing with him. Matters became strained,
however, when Maliki failed to put his words into action, repeatedly delaying
the referendum, and did not lift a finger to prevent Turkish attacks on
Kurdistan in mid-2007, aimed at eliminating the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
The prime minister is apparently recalculating his relationship with the Kurds.
He needs heavyweights behind him, after all, since success in the upcoming
elections seems all the more difficult after the latest bombings in August,
October and December. He also realizes that the US administration of President
Barack Obama is keen on resolving the Kurdish issue, after it sent a senior
diplomat, Alan Misenheimer, to reside in Kirkuk in August. Shortly before that,
the Kurds were on the verge of holding a referendum on a regional constitution,
unilaterally declaring their control over Kirkuk, and claiming that the Baghdad
government had repeatedly delayed holding the much-anticipated yet
controversial referendum.
Kirkuk came to the world's attention during the era of Iraq's founder, King
Faysal I, when an oil gusher was discovered in 1927. The oilfield was put into
operation by the Iraqi Petroleum Co in 1934 and has been producing oil ever
since, currently up to a million barrels per day (half of all Iraqi oil
exports). By 1998, Kirkuk still had reserves of 10 billion barrels. At the time
of the downfall of Saddam's regime, the city (250 kilometers north of Baghdad)
had a population of 755,700. In 1973, Kurdish leader Mullah Mustafa al-Barzani
laid formal claim to Kirkuk, something that the regime of General Ahmad Hasan
al-Bakr considered a declaration of war.
Because of numerous attacks on Iraqi oilfields in 2003-04, as well as on the
country's 7,000km pipeline system, the US set up Task Force Shield to guard the
oil infrastructure, particularly in the Kirkuk district. In January 2004, the
Los Angeles Times quoted Kurdish politician Barham Salih as saying, "We have a
claim to Kirkuk rooted in history, geography and demographics." If this claim
were not acknowledged, he added, it would be a "recipe for civil war".
If this issue is not resolved one way or another, the Americans reason, it
could spell civil war. The problem today is how sustainable any deal would be
between Maliki and the Kurds, given the complete breakdown in trust between
them due to an accumulation of events since 2007. Maliki does not have much
room to maneuver, with the Iranians and other regional players, who would never
accept Kirkuk becoming Kurdish, breathing down his neck. Although the prime
minister was brought to power by the Americans in 2006, his connections to the
US are not nearly as strong as those of the Kurds, particularly the Barzani
clan. Both sides, however, are waiting to see where Obama will stand on the
issue of Kirkuk.
His vice-president, Joe Biden, is an outspoken supporter of Kurdish claims to
Kirkuk, having visited the city during the transition period in late 2008,
reportedly carrying a letter from then-president-elect Obama to the Kirkuk
Provincial Council. According to the Iraqi daily Al-Zaman, the letter expressed
Obama's "special interest in that province". London-based al-Hayat said Biden
stressed a consensual resolution to the Kirkuk issue, which he has been pushing
for since assuming office with Obama last January. If this does happen, and
civil war does erupt, it could bring an abrupt halt to the planned US troop
withdrawal from Iraq, to take place by 2012.
Some are calling for a partitioning of the city between Kurds and Arabs, citing
the Indian city of Chandigarh, which is the capital of both Punjab and Haryana
states. But that proposal would also be rejected by Iraqi Arabs, along with the
Turks, the Saudis, the Iranians and the Syrians. If the Americans do apply hard
pressure on Maliki, will he listen? Obama is not George W Bush, after all, and
Maliki's fate is not 100% dependent on the Obama White House, as it was under
Bush.
That is why the prime minister is trying to hammer out a deal directly with the
Kurds themselves - hoping to delay the issue of Kirkuk until after he is
re-elected in March.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
