SANA'A - In an attempt to combat al-Qaeda, the United States administration of
President Barack Obama is now asking the US Congress to increase security
assistance to Yemen. But the aid will come with a price: Washington wants
President Ali Abdullah Saleh to seek a political solution to his country's
internal strife.
The Pentagon recently agreed to $150 million in military assistance to Yemen,
which will pay for equipment and training. Defense Secretary Robert Gates
approved the aid, more than double US support to Yemen last year, highlighting
the importance Washington places on counter-terrorism in the Gulf.
"Not only will we work to constrict the space in which al-Qaeda has to operate,
but we will assist the Yemeni people in building
more reliable and legitimate institutions and a more predictable future, which
in turn will go far in reducing the appeal of violent extremism," Daniel
Benjamin, the US State Department's coordinator for counter-terrorism, told the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee in January.
The biggest danger to the government, however, stems from the civil war with
Shi'ite Muslim Houthi rebels that has raged for five years off and on in the
mountainous north and displaced an estimated 200,000 civilians. The government
is also battling an increasingly violent secessionist movement in the south.
"Al-Qaeda was a greater threat in Yemen during the early 1990s then it is now,"
Nadia Abdulaziz al Sakkaf, editor of Yemen Times, told Asia Times Online.
"Yemenis don't think about al-Qaeda because it doesn't play into our daily
lives. Now that al-Qaeda has come into the limelight, Yemenis are more scared
of whether the US will invade rather than of terrorism," she added.
Saleh's critics say he is just as likely to direct assistance to Yemen's
internal conflict as to the fight against al-Qaeda.
"Saleh repeatedly promised to take a stand against al-Qaeda over the last
decade but produced only half measures and hyperbole," said Jane Novak, a
long-time Yemen analyst. "Saleh plays the terror card against the US without
dealing with some of the structural issues like terror financing, extremist
instruction in schools, and al-Qaeda's infiltration of the security services."
On Monday, a separatist leader said to be linked to al-Qaeda, identified as Ali
Saleh al-Yafee, was killed in the southern province of Abyan, the state-run
Saba news agency reported. It said the man, along with two policemen, was
killed during a large-scale security crackdown on anti-government separatist
rioters.
Saleh has ruled Yemen for 32 years, first as president of North Yemen and since
1990 as head of a republic formed by the union of North Yemen and the former
communist south. His government has long been associated with nepotism and
corruption and faces public dissatisfaction over rising unemployment and the
effects of a dire water crisis.
Recent US financial aid will provide Yemen's stretched counter-terrorism forces
with training as well as much-needed basic equipment, including radios,
helicopter parts, trucks and patrol boats, to hunt down and monitor suspected
militants.
After the backlash from Iraq and Afghanistan the idea of using US ground forces
has been ruled out and the Yemeni government has made clear it will not accept
direct military intervention.
But not all donors have the same approach. In contrast to Washington's call for
a ceasefire to the Houthi rebellion in the north, in late 2009 Saudi Arabia
launched forces against the insurgents. The oil-rich kingdom shares Yemen's
northern border, where the Houthis are based, and is by far Yemen's largest
donor.
Although neither Riyadh nor Sana'a gives figures, analysts estimate Saudi
counter-terrorism aid to Sana'a is $200 million to $300 million a year,
surpassing US assistance.
While Saudi officials say funding tribal institutions and religious
organizations provide the most effective channel for aid in Yemen, Washington
is adamant that international aid should officially flow through the Sana'a
government to prevent financial leakages.
Other analysts say it is unlikely that the government would divert
international aid to fighting its domestic wars. Saleh has skillfully
maintained his hold on power for so long by appeasing Yemeni tribes, the army
and other sectors of Yemen's fragmented society and analysts say that in much
the same vein, he recognizes that he now needs the US.
"If there is one thing that the president excels at, it is reading the tea
leaves," Brian O'Neill, an independent analyst and Yemen security expert, told
Asia Times Online. "I do not think the US is willing to fund Saleh's other
wars. They have actually been very explicit in saying that they want a
political solution."
How a solution might look is unclear, but O'Neill said it was unlikely to mean
fundamental change. "Saleh realizes he can get the West to help him solve his
problems in a way that is amenable to maintaining central authority. He plans
to be subtle, so the flow of our aid has to be just as nuanced," he said.
"While I don't think we are going to be financing violence, we may be in effect
merely funding Saleh's ability to kick the can down the road."
The impoverished republic rose even higher up the list of US counter-terrorism
priorities since it emerged that Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian
"Christmas Bomber" who tried to blow up a Northwest Airlines flight from
Amsterdam to Detroit on December 25, received training in Yemen.
Al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibility for the failed
attack, thwarted when other passengers and crew overwhelmed Abdulmutallab after
he tried to ignite explosives hidden in his underwear.
AQAP is widely accepted as operating out of Yemen, in many ways an ideal
staging base for Islamist militants, with a weak central government and much of
the territory outside the major cities under tribal control. In the desert
region of Ma'arib, situated in the Empty Quarter, local tribes give shelter to
al-Qaeda militants.
Oliver Holmes is a British freelance journalist who has been working in
Sana'a since September, 2009.
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