DAMASCUS - The Arab World is going through tremendous and very unexpected - yet
positive - upheaval. A few years ago, nobody would have imagined that a secular
former Ba'athist such as Iyad Allawi could win elections in Iraq, while
Iran-backed religious parties like the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council would be
defeated within their strongholds.
Nobody would have imagined a Turkish prime minister, in this case Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, championing the rights of Palestinians and standing at dagger's end
with both the United States and Israel.
In Lebanon - given all the tension that erupted between the ruling March 14
coalition, backed by the West, and the Hezbollah-led
opposition, backed by Syria, after the 2005 assassination of former prime
minister Rafik al-Hariri - nobody would have imagined such an harmonious
outcome.
This month, Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri gave verbal instructions to media
officials at his Future TV that they should refrain from criticizing Syria in
any of their broadcasts - a far cry from what was has been said on the
television network over the past five years. He also stressed that Syria should
receive the same respect accorded to his traditional patron, Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, youth elements in his Future Movement were instructed to refrain
from criticizing Syria either in private or in public, in light of the prime
minister's December 2009 visit to Damascus, which by all accounts was a
thundering success.
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a ranking member of March 14 who regularly fired
insults against Syria in 2005-2008, has since repeatedly apologized to the
Syrian leadership and people and he was this month allowed to visit Damascus
for a high-profile meeting with the Syrian president.
Jumblatt was only pardoned after he patched up his relationship with Hezbollah,
meeting with its chief Hassan Nasrallah last summer, and effectively revoking
all earlier remarks that called for disarmament of the Lebanese party. He is
now championing its arms, claiming that they should be protected and embraced
by the Lebanese government.
Hezbollah, needless to say, is happy with the results, having orchestrated
Jumblatt's Damascus visit, where the Druze leader was told that any future
contacts between him and Damascus would run through Nasrallah. Earlier, all of
Hezbollah's demands had been met by the March 14 coalition after the summer
2009 parliamentary elections in Lebanon.
Hezbollah got to name all of its ministers, received veto power in the Hariri
cabinet and managed to empower its Christian ally, Michel Aoun, by securing key
portfolios like that of telecommunications for his Free Patriotic Movement
(FPM). Additionally, the Hariri cabinet promised to "protect and embrace" the
arms of Hezbollah, this in a cabinet statement hammered out by the prime
minister in late 2009. This week, Hariri is expected in Damascus for another
high-profile visit.
The prime minister will discuss internal security with the Syrians, who want to
see Hariri establish full control over the Palestinian camps in Lebanon, to
make sure that lawlessness is eradicated so al-Qaeda-inspired Islamic groups
like Fatah al-Islam, which surfaced in 2007 and carried out a terrorist attack
within Syria in 2008, do not resurface in Lebanon. On security, they want to
coordinate efforts to see that Hezbollah is sheltered from all talk about
involvement in the murder of Rafik al-Hariri.
Such talk has surfaced in the Western media, but remains unofficial since
nothing has come out of the international tribunal investigating the Hariri
case.
In an interview this month on al-Manar, a television station, Nasrallah made
clear that no members of Hezbollah were suspected in the Hariri case, although
several "members and friends" have been summoned as witnesses since 2008.
He added, "We will also cooperate and watch [the performance of the
international tribunal]; we will refuse politicization and refuse accusations
with no proof." Any reference to Hezbollah's involvement, he added, would
trigger another confrontation in Beirut with those trying to blame the affair
on Hezbollah - a clear reference to the men of Christian leader, Samir Geagea,
who are the only ones still trumpeting such a line within March 14.
To avoid raising emotions too high, however, given that he is a charismatic and
inflammatory spokesman, Nasrallah decided to speak calmly in the interview,
rather than deliver a fiery speech. The Syrians made it clear that their number
one request in Lebanon was the protection and empowerment of Hezbollah, and
this was said very clearly to Jumblatt while he was in Damascus. In order to
maintain the relationship with Damascus, Hariri has to see to it that Nasrallah
remains happy with the operation of the cabinet.
Additionally, the Syrians want to coordinate efforts with Lebanon, which is now
serving on a rotating seat at the United Nations Security Council, to see to it
that that body's resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of all
non-governmental groups, be considered fulfilled. The argument, being marketed
by Foreign Minister Ali al-Shami, is that 1559 calls for the disarmament of
non-governmental militias, whereas Hezbollah is not a militia but a resistance
organization.
Perhaps explaining how smooth the relationship is between Hezbollah and Hariri
is the recent action of his trusted Interior Minister, Ziad Baroud. The latter
was expected to send a group of Lebanese soldiers from Internal Security for
United States military training in Jordan, aimed at counter-terrorism (as
agreed on with the US in 2007).
Before accepting to sign off on the travel permits, Baroud requested that all
clauses in the agreement that make derogatory statements vis-a-vis Hezbollah be
removed from the original text of the Lebanese-US agreement. That text, it must
be noted, had been signed by Hariri's predecessor and protege, ex-premier Fouad
al-Siniora.
Additionally, behind-the-scenes talks are currently underway to create a
National Opposition Front to the cabinet of Saad al-Hariri, headed by ex-prime
minister Omar Karameh, scion of a leading political family in Tripoli. Former
president Emille Lahhoud, under whom Karameh had served in 2005, has already
given his blessing for such a grouping, through his son, ex-member of
parliament Emille Lahhoud Jr.
The new coalition will include important Sunni politicians like Abdul Rahim
Murad and Usama Saad, another former member of parliament, and Abdul Rahman
Bizri, the head of the municipality of Sidon. Albert Mansour, Elias Firizli,
George Qorm and Elias Saba, and the Druze politician, Wiam Wahhab, will
represent non-Sunni politicians. Karameh hopes to invite the Lebanese Communist
Party and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) to join, in addition to
the ex-Beirut member of parliament, Najah Wakim.
According to sources in Beirut, neither the Marada Movement of Suleiman
Franjiyeh nor the Free Patriotic Movement of Michel Aoun has agreed to join the
new group, which Karameh is now describing as "a shadow cabinet that will keep
checks and balances on all ministers in the Hariri cabinet". Pro-Hariri
elements immediately fired back, saying that this front was an immediate
response to the reconciliation talks that kicked off in early March at Baabda
Palace, given that all of its members - with the exception of the SSNP - were
not invited to the roundtable talks.
Reportedly, the front will be announced on April 18 at a luncheon held by
ex-minister Wahab in honor of ex-prime minister Karameh. Murad hopes to send
off a message to Syria by hosting a reception at his home also this April,
honoring the Syrian ambassador to Beirut, Ali Abdul Karim. All of the front's
players are staunch allies of Syria.
Many are questioning the timing of such a front; and whether it will be able to
challenge the policies of Hezbollah, which is a key player in the Hariri
government, given that Karameh and Nasrallah are strong allies. A closer look,
however, shows a behind-the-scenes role for Hezbollah in the formation of the
front. Hezbollah wants to play the go-between, walking the tight rope between
Hariri and other Sunni figures like Karameh, while maintaining excellent
relations with both.
It needs to maintain a strong relationship with Hariri, and yet, keep its
back-channels open with men who were very supportive of its policies during the
difficult years in the Hariri-Nasrallah relationship, in 2005-2008. Ultimately,
Hezbollah is interested in bolstering the policies of those "left out" of the
current cabinet, men like Karameh who are more worthy of cabinet posts, they
believe, than Samir Gagea's Lebanese Forces (LF).
Hezbollah might be toying with the idea of an internal change within the Hariri
cabinet - granting the prime minister enough ammunition to get rid of his two
LF ministers and replace them with someone from the camp, formerly known as
March 8, whose remains now coalesce into Karameh's front. There is no reason
for Hariri to remain allied to Gagea, they believe, given that the two men have
nothing in common.
The only reason they were brought into one camp in the first place in 2005 was
with the common objective of reaching power - back then - and getting the
Syrians to leave Lebanon. Now that Hariri is firmly in power, he is more in
need of Hezbollah support, and that of Damascus, than he is of LF support.
The Christian umbrella that Hariri needs has already been granted by Michel
Aoun, meaning he can effectively rid himself of Gagea's men, with minimal
damage to his cabinet coalition and no damage to his credibility in the
Christian street. Karameh, it must be noted, would never approve joining a
cabinet that has Gagae's men in it, given that the latter was convicted and
jailed for the 1987 murder of his brother, ex-prime minister Rashid Karameh.
For Karameh to jump onboard today, Gagea would need to leave the ship of Saad
Hariri.
Deep inside, Hariri wants it as well, seeing the Gagea alliance as an
embarrassment enforced on him when he first rose to the political stage of
Beirut in 2005. Breaking with Gagea, therefore, would effectively be a blessing
in disguise for the prime minister, and yet another thundering victory for
Hezbollah.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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