DAMASCUS - Last week, the United States Department of State summoned a senior
member of the Syrian embassy to voice its concern, saying: "The United States
condemns in the strongest terms the transfer of any arms, and especially
ballistic missile systems such as the Scud, from Syria to Hezbollah."
This related to an April 13 statement by Israeli President Shimon Peres that
accused Syria of providing Hezbollah with Scud missiles - a claim which
threatens to derail the Barack Obama administration's recent efforts to roll
back a US isolation of Syria implemented during the George W Bush
administration.
There are still strong voices in Washington calling for more
dialogue with Syria, despite the uproar. They cite the lack of proof to back up
Israel's claims and attach little weight to the "Scud affair".
However, Jeffrey Feltman, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern
Affairs, was drilled at a House panel two days ago over the Obama
administration's decision in February to send an ambassador to Damascus, a post
that had been vacant since 2005. Representative Dana Rohrabacher, a California
Republican, told Feltman, who has visited Damascus several times since 2009 -
that he did not think this approach had "any merit at all".
The designated envoy, Robert Ford, is still awaiting confirmation by the full
senate and Feltman said some senators may be reluctant to move forward with the
post given doubts raised by the Scud affair about Syria's intentions.
"It's like they just spit right in our face," Republican Representative Dan
Burton said after the meeting, calling attention to a number of Syrian moves he
said were against the interests of the United States and its allies, including
Israel, reported the Washington Post.
Representative Eliot Engel (Democrat-New York) and Representative Mark Kirk
(Republican-Illinois) also tabled a resolution in congress calling for
tightened restrictions against Syria and strict enforcement of sanctions
against Hezbollah.
Syria, meanwhile, announced over the weekend that it would reopen the American
School in Damascus, which was closed in 2008 after US special operations forces
crossed into Syria, killing Syrian civilians near the border with Iraq. The
opening is seen as a symbol that Syria appreciates that Obama carries none of
the political baggage of his predecessors. For his part, the president has said
nothing to date about the snowballing "Scud" crisis in the Middle East.
The Syrians are crying foul, claiming there was no arms transfer to Hezbollah
and accusing Israel of fabricating the story to justify another war in the
Middle East. A statement by the Syrian Embassy in the US said Israel was
trumpeting the Scud affair to divert the world's attention from the 1,600
settlements it plans to construct in Jerusalem, and from the mass deportation
of Palestinian residents in the West Bank.
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a former opponent but now firm ally of
Hezbollah, came out in support of Syrian and Hezbollah claims during a state
visit to Italy this week. Israel is using the Scud story, he noted, in a manner
similar to how the US used the weapons of mass destruction case against Saddam
Hussein as a prelude to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
A new war between Hezbollah and Israel, Hariri believes, would spell
destruction for Lebanon and spell doom for the foreign investment and political
and economic stability he has promised to deliver. The Syrians certainly do not
want war and nor does Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis had been hopeful that after many years of turmoil, Lebanon would
finally stabilize with their ally Hariri firmly in power - particularly now he
is working in full harmony with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. For his
part, Hariri had already asked diplomats from Turkey, which shares a rotating
seat with Lebanon on the United Nations Security Council, to shelter Hezbollah
from another war with Israel.
Many in Lebanon are afraid that this is exactly the kind of pretext that Israel
could be expected to create to justify a new war on Hezbollah. In November
2009, the Israeli Defense Forces claimed it seized the German ship Francop
carrying 36 containers with 500 tonnes of Katyusha rockets and grenades
destined for Hezbollah.
Then, as with this April, both Syria and Lebanon strongly denied the charges,
claiming that Israel was using the Francop case to cover up the severe
criticism it received over the UN-mandated Goldstone Report regarding the
2008-2009 war on Gaza. The repeated frequency of the accusations, however,
indicates that there is more to them than simple cover-ups for Israeli
malpractice.
It now seems that the accusations are an early warning that, contrary to what
many believe, war is once again in the air on the Israeli-Syrian-Lebanese
border. The legacy of former US secretary of state Alexander Haig - who died
last month - is clear in the mind of Middle Easterners. In 1982 he warned
Israel that "only an internationally recognized" provocation would justify a
"proportionate retaliation" against the Palestinians in Lebanon.
That pretext came when Palestinian commandos - not the slightest bit affiliated
with Palestinian Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat - unsuccessfully
tried to kill the Israeli ambassador to London, Shlomo Argov.
Simply put, Hezbollah does not need Scuds. The missiles are, according to
military analysts, less sophisticated than the group's current missiles, and
although explosively powerful they are not very accurate. Additionally, the
Scuds reportedly transferred to Hezbollah have a range of 500 kilometers and
beyond. That is useless for Hezbollah, which already has all Israeli cities and
towns within range of its missiles, which all fall within a 15-200 km arc.
British defense analyst Charles Heyman remarked, "Hezbollah need[s] to float
like butterflies, sting like bees. They don't need something that lumbers along
like an ox." This was in reference to the bulky nature of Scud missiles, which
are a handicap in guerilla warfare. Even prominent Israelis came out to
challenge the Scud claims, with Uzi Rubin, an advisor to the Israeli Ministry
of Defense, saying, "What do they need Scuds for? They already have [the]
Fateh-110, which has a similar range, and being a solid-fuel rocket, is far
less cumbersome. Okay, so Scuds weigh a ton while the Fateh-110 is half a ton.
Nothing to stop them firing two Fateh-110s."
It should be recalled that during the war of 2006, Hezbollah fired an al-Nour
missile (more than six meters long with a range of 200 km) into an Israeli
warship, killing several of its crew and sinking the vessel. The al-Nour is a
sophisticated missile crafted by the Iranians while based on a Chinese model.
The Israelis will probably take the Scud story and shelve it until they feel
confident enough to wage a new war with Lebanon, using it, the Francop story
- and others - as a pretext to strike again at Hezbollah. It does not really
matter whether these stories are true or not from an Israeli perspective; what
matters is that they serve the ultimate target of allowing Israel to strike at
a traditional enemy.
An immediate war seems increasingly difficult - given that no guarantees exist
that the results of 2006, which to say the least did not satisfy Israel, will
not be repeated in 2010. According to the Israelis themselves, Hezbollah
emerged from 2006 stronger and better equipped than ever before - regardless of
whether they had obtained Scuds or not. Nasrallah made the chances of war all
the more unlikely by raising tension to new levels a few weeks ago, saying: "If
you strike at Rafik al-Hariri Airport, we will strike at Ben Gurion Airport. If
you hit our oil refineries, we will hit Israel's oil refineries. If you hit our
factories, we will hit yours and if you strike at our electricity plants we
will hit the electricity plants in Israel."
For these reasons, war is unlikely for now - but the Scud missile story, with
its many layers, is very worrying for all players in the Middle East, and
primarily for Syria and Lebanon.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine.
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