THE ROVING EYE The method in Israel's madness
By Pepe Escobar
Why would Israel, in a deliberate and methodical operation planned over a week
in advance - according to statements by senior Israeli military commanders made
in Hebrew-language media days before the attack - target an unarmed ship on a
humanitarian mission flying the flag of Comoros? (Unlike Turkey, Comoros is a
party of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, which has
jurisdiction over war crimes committed on vessels of member states.)
Why would Israeli commandos shoot nine unarmed activists dead with nine
millimeter bullets at close range, between the eyes, in the top of the head, in
the back of the head, in the chest, in the back, and in the legs - including an
American citizen? (The final death toll may be 15, as six activists are still
missing; Israeli army radio reported 16 dead early last Monday when the attack
took place on the Mavi Marmara, a part of the Free Gaza flotilla.)
How could Israel think it would get away with it by censoring video and photos
- and then getting away with it all over again by refusing an international,
independent commission to investigate the incident and subsequent cover-up?
Why, geopolitically, would Israel declare war on the de facto international
community - from Muslim nations to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
member-countries to global public opinion?
Is this merely a case of a "dysfunctional government", as Bradley Burston wrote
in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz. And strategically speaking, is there any
method behind the madness? Or is the method actually the madness?
Be afraid, be very afraid
There may be a very simple answer to all these questions: fear.
Let's survey Israel's possible motivations. A key Israeli motive to attack the
humanitarian flotilla was to send a "signal" to Turkey about the Brazil and
Turkey-mediated Iran nuclear fuel-swap deal - as its success pre-empted
Israel's pleas for a military strike on Tehran's nuclear facilities. Israel
wants conflict between Washington and Tehran - and that means using the Israel
lobby in Washington to sabotage US President Barack Obama's half-hearted
attempts at finding any sort of agreement with Tehran over its
uranium-enrichment program.
Israel wants a weak Turkey - out of the loop both in the Middle East and the
European Union (EU). Turkey is an emerging, key regional power now with good,
stable relations with its neighbors. Turkey is key for the US: 70% of all
supplies for US troops in Iraq go through the Incirlik base in Turkey. Turkey
has troops fighting the US war in Afghanistan. Not to mention that Turkey - in
Obama's own terms - represents the key bridge between the West and the Muslim
world.
The White House gave a wimpy response, "The United States deeply regrets the
loss of life and injuries sustained and is currently working to understand the
circumstances surrounding this tragedy." This was also Washington's signal to
Turkey that the Brazil-Turkey mediation on the Iran nuclear fuel swap deal was
not exactly welcome.
Iran agreed last month with the leaders of Brazil and Turkey to send most of
its low-enriched uranium to Turkey to be held in escrow pending delivery of
fuel rods for the Tehran Research Reactor.
As much as Israel wants Turkey immersed in deep trouble with both Syria and
Greece, and fighting a nasty internal Kurdish problem, Ankara is not exactly
trembling because of Israel's "message". In terms of conventional military
strength, Turkey is ahead of Israel itself; and moreover it is a very important
US NATO ally.
Another key Israeli motive was to undermine and in fact abort any possibility
of meaningful peaceful negotiations with the Palestinians and the Syrians - and
to cut Turkey from the loop. Turkey is very much involved in the Palestinian
tragedy. It is trying hard to breach the gap between Fatah and Hamas. A key
Israeli aim appears to be to sabotage any Turkish-led peace initiative to solve
the Palestinian problem that includes the essential provision of a fully
denuclearized Middle East - anathema to (undeclared) nuclear power Israel.
To round it all up, there is the crucial element of fear itself. As the
once-fabled Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have struggled in battles with
Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 and Hamas in Gaza in 2008, they have had to come
to grips with the fact that their tanks are now vulnerable to Russian-made
rocket-propelled grenades; their ships are now vulnerable to Hezbollah's made
in China missiles; and their planes will soon be vulnerable to Russian S-300
surface-to-air missiles.
The new axis in town
Iraqi Kurdistan is now virtually independent - according to Washington's
designs. Israel is robustly active everywhere in Iraqi Kurdistan. At the same
time, the US actively supports the Iraq-based Kurdish Workers' Party
separatists in eastern Anatolia as well as Party of Free Life of Kurdistan
(PJAK) separatists in Iran and Kurdish separatists in Syria. The Turkish
military spent no time analyzing these crucial developments. Their conclusion:
NATO is not exactly a panacea. We must focus on the Middle East.
And this has led to the ultimate Israeli nightmare. The new key axis in the
Middle East is Turkey, Iran and Syria. It used to be only Iran and Syria. Its
historical legitimacy simply cannot be questioned, as it unites Shi'ite Iran,
secular Syria and post-Ottoman Sunni Turkey.
There are many fascinating side-effects of this cross-fertilization - such as
more than a million Iraqis, many of them very well educated, finding a new life
in Syria. But the most remarkable effect of this axis is that it has smashed
the same old divide-and-rule logic Western colonialism has been imposing on the
Middle East for more than a century. Turkey's destiny may not be firmly
attached to a fearful Europe that really does not want to embrace it after all;
Turkey is to become once again a leader of the Muslim world.
Life for the new axis won't be easy. United States covert operations have tried
to destabilize Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - to no avail. The same for US
Central Intelligence Agency black ops in Sistan-Balochistan province in
southeast Iran, as a means to destabilize the regime in Tehran. And the same
for shady covert ops meant to bring a new military dictatorship in Turkey. But
while US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton perfects her vociferousness, Assad,
Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad got
together this February in Syria and advanced their partnership.
Crucially, Russia immediately stepped in to fill the US-provoked void. Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev has been to Ankara and Damascus and has positioned
himself in favor of full reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas and a fully
functional Palestinian state side-by-side with Israel.
Even US Central Command commander General David “I'm always positioning myself
to 2012” Petraeus has been forced to publicly admit that US strategic ally
Israel - because of the non-stop colonization of Palestine and the blockade it
is enforcing in Gaza - has become an immense burden for US strategic designs.
Russia on the other hand supports the new Turkey, Syria and Iran
politico-economic axis. Visa-free travel between Ankara and Moscow is now on.
Russia's Rosatom and Atomstroyexport are finishing Iran's Bushehr nuclear power
station this August; are discussing the building of other plants; and have
clinched a Turkish nuclear power station deal worth US$20 billion (Syria is
also interested). Stroitransgaz and Gazprom will bring Syrian gas to Lebanon -
as Israel prevents Lebanon from exploiting its considerable offshore reserves.
Russia is on a roll. Tehran will soon receive its already paid-for S-300
missiles. And Syria will soon get a new naval base.
In Pipelineistan, Russia and Turkey are now brothers in arms. Russia will build
a crucial Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline to bring Russian oil from the Black Sea to the
Mediterranean. Moreover, Turkey is about to join the Russian South Stream gas
pipeline - and that means a direct blow to the troubled US/EU-supported
Nabucco.
Russia - just like Turkey - also wants a fully denuclearized Middle East, which
implies a non-nuclear Israel. This will be discussed at the United Nations'
International Atomic Energy Agency.
Thus, essentially, Israel fears the new Turkey, Syria and Iran as much as it
fears Russian support for it. A new Middle East is being born - and there seems
to be only one place for Israel: isolation.
Israel's "mad dog" strategy - conceived by former military leader Moshe Dayan -
is not exactly an exercise in fitting in. Even centrist Middle East analyst
Anthony Cordesman, an establishment icon at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, wrote an essay under the title "Israel as a Strategic
Liability?"
Big Brother Washington may be - forever - blind to it; but if you are a state
and your strategy is to configure yourself as South Africa at the twilight of
apartheid - by the way, at the time Israel was trying to sell nuclear weapons
to South Africa - method is the last thing to be found in your madness.
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