Page 1 of 3 ISRAEL, PALESTINE AFTER THE
FLOTILLA, Part 1 Change is in the wind By Jack A Smith
There are times in world politics when a relatively small incident can trigger
a major chain of events, depending on circumstances. Another way of expressing
this is contained in the ancient Chinese proverb, "A single spark can start a
prairie fire" - particularly when conditions include a warm gusty wind and the
grassland is dry.
This analogy comes to mind in the aftermath of the violent illegal interdiction
by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) of the six ships and nearly 700 people in
the humanitarian Gaza Freedom flotilla in the Mediterranean Sea over a month
ago, killing nine Turkish supporters of Palestinian national rights and
wounding about 50 other voyagers.
Is it possible this incident may represent the start of a transitional
moment leading toward substantial change for the Palestinians, Israelis and
perhaps the Middle East in general? We think yes, and the process has already
begun. How far it goes, nobody knows, but conditions are ripe for change.
After three years of increasingly tightened sanctions against the 1.5 million
beleaguered Palestinians resident in the Gaza Strip, Israel has been forced to
significantly ease its near-total blockade - not because of decisions by the UN
and the several big powers that have been working with Israelis and
Palestinians to achieve a settlement, but by the action of a people's movement.
Israel's use of brute force on the high seas against a boatload of civilians on
a brave journey motivated by compassion for a suffering people swiftly sent a
tidal wave of international criticism and anger crashing against Israel's
shores. As always, the Jewish state sought to depict itself as the victim, but
times have changed in recent years and the victim of yesterday, for whom
humanity still mourns, is now perceived as an executioner of today, extracting
10, or 50, or 100 eyes for an eye.
Much of the anger directed at the Israeli government last month first began to
coalesce when Israel attacked Lebanon and Gaza in the summer of 2006. It grew
after Israel's vicious three-week invasion of defenseless Gaza starting in late
December 2008. But it took the bungled flotilla attack for this gathering
criticism to breach the levees.
Now what? In the wake of the flotilla fiasco and public disapproval, obdurate
Israel is obliged to make some concessions to the so-called Quartet, which is
composed of the UN, the European Union, the United States and Russia - a group
formed eight years ago to resolve differences between Israel and Palestine
leading to the establishment of two separate states.
The Barack Obama administration supports Israel politically and militarily, and
has raised Washington's annual subsidy to Israel to $3 billion beginning in
October. It believes, however, that the regime's disproportionate violence,
illegal occupation of the West Bank (with a population of 2.8 million
Palestinians) and foot-dragging on facilitating a Palestinian state undermines
US hegemony in the Middle East and its imperial interests worldwide.
Obama refused to blame Israel for shooting unarmed civilians at sea, saying
only that "the United States deeply regrets the loss of life and injuries". Nor
has the White House used its decisive power to permanently halt the building of
settlements on territory illegally seized from the Palestinians 43 years ago,
much less to withdraw from the land it illegally occupies in the West Bank.
Netanyahu's governing extreme right-wing and ultra-orthodox religious coalition
has no desire to curtail the establishment of Jewish settlements on Palestinian
lands, to end its occupation of the West Bank, or to work seriously toward the
creation of a Palestinian state. Hardline religious sectors entertain the
belief that Israel was "given to the Jews by God". (Were the Palestinians to
make an identical claim based on equivalent evidence they would be dismissed as
typical Islamic religious fanatics.)
In this two-part article, we will discuss all these matters in detail, report
on the actions of Obama and and the US Congress, explore the role of Turkey and
Iran, the split between Fatah and Hamas, the disunity within the Arab world,
and anticipate possible geopolitical outcomes throughout the Middle East.
The people of the Gaza Strip are still suffering from sanctions and many other
indignities, but the pain of a total blockade and virtual collective
imprisonment is easing for now in this narrow 40-kilometer long territory on
the Mediterranean coast set aside in 1949 to accommodate some of the
Palestinian refugees displaced by the creation of the State of Israel.
The world's principal human rights organizations welcomed the partial lifting
of the blockade, but called for it to be entirely ended. Said Amnesty
International: "This announcement makes it clear that Israel is not intending
to end its collective punishment of Gaza's civilian population, but only ease
it. ... Israel must now comply with its obligations as the occupying power
under international law and immediately lift the blockade."
The UN Relief and Works Agency, which oversees the Palestinian refugee
community, declared June 20 through spokesperson Christopher Guinness: "We need
to have the blockade fully lifted. ... The Israeli strategy is to make the
international community talk about a bag of cement here, a project there. We
need full unfettered access through all the crossings."
The International Committee of the Red Cross, which rarely speaks out on such
matters, on June 14 called for a complete end to the blockade, noting that the
embargo has destroyed the territory's economy and ruined its healthcare system.
This small concession on sanctions has not changed the political goals of the
Israeli government. In general, it seeks the destruction of Hamas (the Islamic
Resistance Movement) that governs Gaza; the domination and manipulation of the
Palestine National Authority (PNA), which rules the larger occupied Palestinian
territory of the West Bank, and Fatah (the Palestine Liberation Movement),
which leads the PNA from the West Bank; the maintenance of Israeli occupation
forces and illegal Jewish settlements on Palestinian land; and widening its
control of Jerusalem.
Netanyahu's objective is to keep the Palestinians in a condition of neocolonial
subjugation as long as possible. The real desire of the right-wing government
coalition is to permanently absorb as much Palestinian land as possible. The
Quartet some time ago encouraged Israel to work toward establishing a two-state
solution in 2012, but the current regime poses innumerable obstacles to an
equitable settlement, seeking to delay an agreement for many years or forever
if possible.
On June 29, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman announced there was "no chance"
of meeting a 2012 deadline. Lieberman indicated some time ago that he would
consider the idea of two states if Israel's 1.3 million Arab inhabitants -
second-class citizens in their own land - would be uprooted and "transferred"
to the Palestinian side of the border, which is hardly likely. Lieberman's
Yisrael Beiteinu party already suggests that most Israeli Arabs are "disloyal"
and should have their citizenship revoked. "No loyalty, no citizenship" was its
election slogan in what Israel's supporters term "the only democracy in the
Middle East".
PNA President Mahmoud Abbas conducted a rare meeting with reporters from the
Hebrew press last week in Ramallah, for three hours no less. The Jerusalem Post
editorialized July 1 that the event "can be seen as an attempt - quite possibly
with heavy US encouragement - to reach out to the Israeli public. There was
nothing particularly new in what Abbas had to say. But the general impression
that the PNA head will most likely have succeeded in conveying to the Americans
is that he is showing a readiness to push ahead with negotiations on the
final-status issues of security and borders, while Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu has proffered nothing but a wall of silence. 'We have yet to receive
a sign from Netanyahu on progress,' Abbas said."
Two more moderate political parties - Kadima, which calls itself "centrist" but
functions on the right, is the largest party in the Knesset (parliament); and
the Labor Party, which still sports a "center-left" label but is center-right
at best and rightist when it comes to the Palestinians - are more amenable to
the two-state proposition. But neither has evidenced an interest in anything
more than a weak, virtually dependent Palestinian state. And no mainstream
Israeli party gives credence to the left idea advocated by some of transforming
Israel-Palestine into a single progressive multi-ethnic, multi-religious state
based on true equality and mutual benefit.
Obama is said to be considering the idea of proposing "an independent,
democratic and contiguous" Palestinian state that - "for Israel's security" -
would not be allowed to have an army or enter into a mutual security pact with
another country. Given the recent history of Israel's violent military
incursions into neighboring states, it seems logical to inquire, what about
Palestinian security?
For his part, Netanyahu evidently has learned nothing from the international
criticism of Israel's harsh blockade and the attack on the flotilla. He told
the Knesset recently that "they want to strip us of the natural right to defend
ourselves. When we defend ourselves against rocket attack, we are accused of
war crimes. We cannot board sea vessels when our soldiers are being attacked
and fired upon, because that is a war crime."
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