Rumblings rise between Hezbollah, Israel
By Mel Frykberg
RAMALLAH - Israeli intelligence has warned that a new war with Hezbollah on
Israel's northern border with Lebanon cannot be ruled out, following heightened
tensions between United Nations peacekeeping forces and Hezbollah supporters in
the south of Lebanon.
"Israel has to be ready for any sudden provocation or outbreak of hostilities,"
Dan Diker from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs tells Inter Press
Service (IPS). "The same way the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war was triggered over
Hezbollah capturing Israeli soldiers."
In 2006, Hezbollah guerillas captured several Israeli soldiers after laying
ambush along the border. This led to the second Israel-
Lebanon war, which lasted just over a month until UN resolution 1701 brought
hostilities to an end.
Dr Samir Awad from Birzeit University near Ramallah, however, thinks the
possibility of a military confrontation in the near future is slim, and that
the current flare-up has more to do with internal Lebanese politics.
"Neither side wants war at this stage. Both Israel and Hezbollah are unwilling
to pay the high price of a new and bloody conflict. The events in the south are
related to a power struggle in the Lebanese government," Awad tells IPS.
Israeli intelligence has reported an increase in weapons being smuggled into
south Lebanon through its porous borders with Syria. There are also reports of
activity by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in the area south of the
Litani River.
Resolution 1701 called for this parcel of territory to be manned by the United
Nations Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) troops and the Lebanese army, and for armed
militias (Hezbollah specifically) to be disarmed. Israel was forced to withdraw
from its self-declared "security zone" here in 2000 as a result of Hezbollah
resistance.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have warned of increased military activity in
the village al-Khiam in the south. They say Hezbollah cells are lying dormant
in preparation for an ambush on any IDF troops that enter the area.
Al-Khiam is of particular strategic importance. In 2007 a roadside bomb alleged
to have been laid by Hezbollah killed six UNIFIL troops from a Spanish
battalion. The Spaniards had a reputation for confronting Hezbollah cadres.
The bombing was widely perceived to be a message to UNIFIL about the Lebanese
resistance movement's ability to control the area. "Hezbollah regards Lebanon
as a sub-colony of Iran. Confronting UNIFIL with provocations is Hezbollah's
way of fighting what it sees as foreign interference in its country, and a way
of showing the UN who is boss in Lebanon," Diker tells IPS.
UNIFIL troops have encountered increased resistance in searching al-Khiam for
weapons. Over the past couple of weeks, approximately 20 confrontations have
taken place between Shi'ite villagers and UNIFIL troops.
Villagers, who are sympathetic to Hezbollah, have thrown stones at UNIFIL
troops, seized their weapons, climbed onto tanks and in one case removed the
aerial from one of them. The weapons were returned after the intervention of
the Lebanese army.
Relations between various sects in the Lebanese army have worsened as the army
has tried to confront Hezbollah guerillas. Many officers in the Lebanese army
are Shi'ite and sympathetic to Hezbollah.
"Hezbollah has managed to hold on to its weapons despite resolution 1701," says
Awad. "It has also managed to win support away from the March 14 governing
coalition, led by the pro-Western Saad Hariri.
"Moreover, it continues to successfully portray itself as Lebanese liberator
due to Israel's ongoing occupation of the Shebaa Farms and the northern part of
Ghajar Village."
The Shebaa Farms were declared by the UN to be part of Syrian-occupied
territory in 2000. But since then the Syrians and Lebanese have agreed the
territory belongs to Lebanon. A UN cartographer has conceded their point has
merit, but the issue is yet to be resolved.
"The Lebanese government has to acknowledge that it is losing more and more
power to Hezbollah in the south and that it no longer controls the entire
country," Awad tells IPS.
But a war in the short term seems unlikely, says Professor Moshe Ma'oz from
Jerusalem's Hebrew University in Jerusalem. "This is more about Iran warning
Israel, through its Hezbollah proxy, not to attack Iran. It's also about
keeping mutual deterrence as both Iran and Israel exchange threats warning the
other side not to attack.
"But this could change if Syria and Israel make peace," Ma'oz tells IPS. "Syria
has hinted a number of times that it wants to reach a deal with Israel - on its
terms obviously. If this happened Iran might step in through Hezbollah and
disrupt proceedings."
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
