DAMASCUS - Arab media are reporting talk of an upcoming conference for all
political parties in Iraq, aimed at solving the haunting political gridlock
that has gripped Iraqis since parliamentary elections last March.
Sources are referring to the conference as another Taif - similar to the 1989
meeting in Saudi Arabia that put an end to the bloody Lebanese civil war. If a
"Syrian Taif" does materialize, reportedly in September, this would cement
Syria's role as an ultimate broker in Iraqi affairs - the only regional
heavyweight with both a will and a way to bring normalcy back to its
strife-stricken neighbor.
Such a pivotal role is much needed, as US troops come down to
50,000 by the end of August, ahead of their complete withdrawal by 2011. A
political vacuum already exists and is likely to intensify in the weeks to come
unless solutions are devised immediately.
Reportedly, the "Syrian Taif" is backed by strong players in the neighborhood,
like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and stands unopposed by the Barack Obama
administration, which is very worried over the political vacuum in Baghdad.
To date, nothing official has been released regarding a Syrian Taif, but such a
conference seems all the more logical as scores of Iraqi politicians, from
every end of the political spectrum, have been visiting Damascus in recent
months for talks with top Syrian officials.
To date, ex-prime minister Iyad Allawi, who controls 91 seats in the newly
elected parliament, has paid two visits to Damascus, and so has Ammar Hakim of
the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), whose bloc has a total of 70 seats,
and Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who commands 40 of the 70 seats held by the
National Iraqi Alliance (NIA).
Their visits remind the world of the endless trips made on a daily basis by
scores of Lebanese figures to the Syrian capital in the late 1980s and early
1990s - notably among them being former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri,
parliament speaker Nabih Berri, then-president Elias Hrawi and current member
of parliament Walid Jumblatt.
The only Iraqi heavyweight still expected to make the Damascus visit is
incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who controls 89 seats in parliament,
and whose relations with Syria were strained in the summer of 2009.
None of the Iraqis groups commands the 163-majority needed to form a cabinet,
making a parliamentary alliance absolutely necessary to produce a new
government. Given the tremendous amount of political bickering among various
players, it seems only logical for them to rely on a regional heavyweight to
help them sort out their differences.
Saudi Arabia, for ideological reasons, would find it difficult to accept for
many Shi'ite heavyweights, while Iran is offlimits to Sunni hardliners. Egypt
is too distant from Iraqi affairs to host such a conference and so are Lebanon
and Jordan, making Syria the best - in fact only - option for such a
reconciliation conference.
If we were to revisit the shuttle diplomacy that preceded the Taif Accords, we
can find that the only prerequisite for attendance was acceptance of Saudi
Arabia's impartial role in the Lebanese conflict, and a pledge to go to Taif
with an open mind, and firm objection to reach creative solutions, at any cost.
That also would have to be a must should a Syrian Taif materialize and this
rests on the wisdom of various Iraqi players. The Taif agreement was negotiated
by surviving members of Lebanon's 1972 parliament and pledged to restructure
the National Pact of 1943; a gentleman's agreement reached between the
country's Maronite president and Sunni prime minister, over the division of
power in Lebanon.
According to the 1989 agreement, certain powers long held by the Maronite
community would be reduced, like the president's right to name his Sunni prime
minister. After Taif, the prime minister became responsible to parliament and
was to be named by a parliamentary majority.
The agreement also provided for disarmament of all militias, and increased
parliamentary seats to 128, divided equally between Christians and Muslims. As
a result, Lebanese lawmakers successfully elected then-president Rene Mouawad
to power; 409 days after the post had been left vacant by ex-president Amin
Gemayel.
The Iraqi premiership vacuum, only 165 days since March, seems suddenly
bearable when compared to what the Lebanese went through back then.
Much of that can be revisited and implemented today in Iraq. Revisiting the
distribution of power, in place since downfall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, needs
to be done. According to the new Iraqi system, the president is a Kurd, the
prime minister is a Shi'ite, and the speaker of parliament is a Sunni. Iraqi
Sunnis, who have controlled Iraqi politics since the 1920s, are clearly unhappy
with the new system, which gives Shi'ites the upper hand, often at their
expense.
For seven years they have been demanding a restructuring of the political
system, asking for greater representation in government, along with a general
amnesty to set Iraqi Sunnis free, thousands of whom were arrested with no
warrants, on the sole charge of having been members in the Iraqi Ba'ath Party.
They have been calling for disarmament of all militias, be they Sunni or
Shi'ite, and for preserving the unity of Iraqi territory and Arabism of the
Iraqi Republic. All suggestions of granting greater autonomy to the Kurds, or
similar status to the Shi'ites, are curtly refused by Iraqi Sunnis. Such
autonomy, they argue, would give the Kurds control of oil in the north, and
Shi'ites of oil reserves in the south, leaving the Sunnis in central Iraq,
where there is no oil. Legislators bracing themselves for a reconciliation
conference - be it in Syria or elsewhere - have to take these demands very
seriously.
A Syrian Taif would have to produce an absolute mandate for the Iraqi
government to give more power to the Sunnis, revisit the balance of power in
Baghdad, disarm militias from all communities, pledge to refrain from any
further carving of Iraqi territory - and to find a replacement to Maliki.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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