Ahmadinejad bears a message for Israel
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
On the eve of his much-anticipated visit to Lebanon on Wednesday, which is sure
to bolster Hezbollah's national standing in fractious Lebanese politics,
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad was busy working the phones to leaders in
Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. He assured them that Tehran supported
"sustainable security" in Lebanon and "the unity" of Lebanon's groups, as
well as "strengthening the region's resistance".
Ahmadinejad called in his conversation with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah for
"closer coordination" between the countries to "create regional stability,
especially in Lebanon", according to the Iranian press.
In light of King Abdullah's recent visit to Lebanon, reflecting a more
proactive Saudi involvement in Lebanese affairs aimed at
sustaining Lebanon's fragile internal peace, such diplomatic gestures by
Ahmadinejad build confidence between Tehran and Riyadh as well as with other
Arab capitals. This includes Cairo, which has taken a positive step in
repairing ties with Iran by setting up an air link with Tehran.
Assuming Ahmadinejad's trip to Lebanon goes as planned and without any major
hitches, it could go a long way in improving Iran's relations with the entire
Arab world, which is somewhat weary of Tehran's politics of "sphere of
influence" in Iraq and Lebanon, among other countries.
Iran's ambassador to Baghdad made it known in a recent meeting with Iraqi
leaders that Tehran preferred the premiership of Nuri al-Maliki, a comment
vilified in some Arab papers as tantamount to interference in Iraq's internal
affairs. Maliki has been struggling since elections in March to form a
government that would give him another term in power.
From Tehran's vantage point, the comment was a reminder of Iran's substantial
influence in Iraq's dominant pro-Iran Shi'ite coalition - a fait accompli
worthy of consideration by those pundits in the West who depict Iran as a
"paper tiger". In contrast, some Arab pundits go to the other extreme and
portray Iran as a "regional superpower".
The fact is, Iran is neither. It is a regional middle power benefiting from a
geostrategic and geo-economic location straddling the two energy hubs of the
Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, and it was deeply rattled by the
post-September 11 infusion of Western power in its vicinity threatening its
national security.
"The president's intention of the visit to Lebanon is several-fold," said a
Tehran University political scientist who specializes in Iran's foreign
relations. "First, he wants to make sure that there is no attempt to weaken
Hezbollah because of the Hariri investigation." This is a reference to the
United Nations-backed international tribunal investigating the assassination of
former Lebanese president Rafik Hariri in Beirut in 2005; it is widely expected
to implicate Lebanon's Hezbollah.
"Second, he [Ahmadinejad] wants to improve trade and economic ties between Iran
and Lebanon. He will travel to south Lebanon to send a message to Israel
that they can bet there will be a frontal attack on Israel from south Lebanon
if Israel ever dares to attack Iran.
"Third, with Hezbollah's substantial arsenal of missiles, grown several-fold
since the 2006 war [with Israel], that is a warning that no Israeli politician
can afford to ignore. Fourth, the president is trying to improve relations with
the Arab world and Lebanon is the gateway," said the political scientist, who
added that the timing "is crucial because of both internal Lebanon politics and
the waves of anti-Iran initiatives by the US and its allies. ... This visit is
intended to elevate Iran's regional status."
Ahmadinejad is scheduled to meet President Michel Suleiman, Prime Minister Saad
Hariri and parliament speaker Nabih Berri. He will also meet Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah.
Given the huge publicity the two-day visit has generated, the stakes appear to
be so high that Iran is worried that nervous Americans and Israelis may play
mischief and resort to indirect acts of violence in Lebanon to deflect some of
the attention from Ahmadinejad.
Israeli media are awash with government warnings to the Lebanese authorities
not to allow Ahmadinejad to tour the border between the two countries. Some
reports hinted that the president's intention to throw a stone in Israel's
direction was designed to escalate tensions with Israel, a tit-for-tat for
Israel's alleged complicity in a cyber-attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
According to another analyst at a Tehran think-tank, Iran has learned a
precious lesson from Iraq, which was subjected to years of sanctions prior to
the country's invasion in 2003. "Iran will not be another Iraq and Tehran can
answer with hard power the sting of soft-power sanctions," the analyst told the
author.
The United Nations, and the United States unilaterally, have imposed a raft of
sanctions on Iran over its uranium-enrichment program. These are "retarding
Iran's economic growth", to paraphrase some Iranian parliamentarians.
However, Tehran is not in a panic just yet, particularly since the recent US
announcement of four major oil companies quitting Iran in response to the
sanctions appears to have been made prematurely, according to reports from the
Iranian Oil Ministry as well as news reports from outside the country. It was
reported this month that France's Total, Royal Dutch Shell, Norway's Statoil
and Italian Eni had agreed to abandon their business ties with Iran to avoid
being hit with US sanctions.
A part of the reason Western oil majors are reluctant to end their involvement
in Iran is that their lucrative contracts will most likely be taken over by
Chinese companies, especially since the West has little control over China's
economic relations with Iran.
Still, the Iranians continue to be worried about the adverse impact of
sanctions in future foreign investment in the energy sector, which needs tens
of billions of dollars to modernize its facilities. For example, a report
states that while Iran's most recent five-year plan had slated some US$200
billion in investment in the oil and gas sector, only $70 billion had been
earmarked to date. In other words, it is definitely in Iran's national economic
interests to contain the nuclear crisis that is having an adverse economic
impact on the overall economy.
Regarding the latter, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has
expressed optimism on the renewal of nuclear talks "very soon"; this after
coming under fire from Iran for "delaying" the dialogue.
Combining the familiar carrot and stick approach, the Europeans seem poised to
restart the talks in an environment most conducive to their strategy, which is
why coinciding with Ashton's statement British Foreign Secretary William Hague
vowed "tougher sanctions". The aim is to garner major concessions from Tehran
on the nuclear front.
In this environment, Tehran's response has been to play more overt
"sphere-of-influence" politics in the region, one that conveys the impression
that the lion (Iran's national symbol) is capable of roaring back if pressed
too hard.
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